wxgeek's weather-Mostly Dry and Mild Next 7-10 Days-Update 3/30

Beautiful day across the state today with temps running 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. Only a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers across the south central mountains today. Upper ridge will move over CO Tuesday, which will bring temps to near record levels in many areas and 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms. Slightly better chance for afternoon showers over the High Country, mostly south of I-70. As upper ridge moves east of CO Tuesday night, winds aloft will increase from the southwest. This will increase winds across the high country and foothills Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, increasing fire danger as RH values will remain low. Temps will once again be above seasonal norms Wednesday, but a weak cold front will move across the state Wednesday afternoon. Chance for showers along cold front as it moves east across the state, with best chances north of I-70. Snow level looks to remain above 10,000 ft with showers Wednesday afternoon.

Bigger change in the weather pattern will occur Wednesday evening through Friday morning. A stronger upper level trough will move through CO Thursday. At the surface, some light precip and showers may persist Wednesday night into Thursday morning from the Divide east to I-25, with snow level lowering to about 6000-7000 ft overnight. Only light accumulations are expected Wednesday night, mostly less than 2 inches above 7000 ft. Precip will increase through the day on Thursday from the Divide east with snow level remaining around 6000-7000 ft. Best chances for accumulating snow will occur from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning as snow level is expected to lower to plains level Thursday night. Models, which have been a little too robust with precip amounts this Spring, are suggesting between 0.5 and 1.0 inches of liquid equivalent will be possible from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. This could translate to 4-10 inches of snow above 8000 ft, although much of the initial snow is likely to melt on roadways due to very warm temps early this week. Roads are likely to become snow and ice packed Thursday evening into Friday morning as colder temps move through and no radiative heating from the sun. Precip should come to an end Friday morning, with clearing skies Friday afternoon with temps returning to near normal values.

Dry and mild weather is expected for the Easter weekend with temps climbing above seasonal norms.

Early next week looks to remain dry with temps near seasonal norms, then precip chances return next week Wednesday through Friday.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Another warm and dry day across the state in March. Upper ridge will build across CO early this week leading to mostly dry conditions and temps way above seasonal norms. Some isolated mountain afternoon showers will be possible Monday and Tuesday, but will remain mostly along the Divide with snow level above 12,000 ft. Temps Tuesday could reach near record levels in many areas. On Wednesday, a system will skirt to our north and bring a weak cold front across the state Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of this system, westerly winds will increase and create some fire weather issues over the foothills and adjacent plains as RH values remain very low. Foothill areas and plains could see isolated showers as cold front passes Wednesday afternoon/evening with snow level remaining above 10,000 ft. Fire danger will decrease once front passes as cooler temps and higher RH values will follow.

Another system is forecast to move into CO Thursday into Friday. This system looks stronger and latest models bring precip into the state. Precip looks to move into northern CO Thursday afternoon mostly north of I-70 but will spread south by Thursday evening. Snow level looks to be 8000-9000 ft Thursday afternoon, but will lower to near plains level Thursday night as precip pushes south. Most precip will remain north of the Palmer Divide but will persist during the day on Friday with snow level remaining around 5000-6000 ft. Currently looks like foothills and plains could pick up a few inches of snow Thursday evening into Friday afternoon with temps below seasonal norms Thursday and Friday. Precip should end by Friday evening.

For the coming weekend, conditions look dry with near seasonal temps Saturday and above seasonal norms Sunday. Conditions look to remain dry and mild early next week, with some precip chances later next week. In general, models do not suggest any major snow events into mid April at this time. More often dry and warm conditions will exist, which will create moderate to high fire danger for most areas, as snow has melted from most foothill areas now.

Seasonal snowfall on Conifer Mountain stands at 97.5 inches, and normal through the end of March is 123 inches, so we are at 79% of average snowfall. Our average for April is 32 inches, and unless we see a significant pattern change in the second half of April, it is not looking likely we will catch up to normal snowfall.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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The persistent upper ridge along the West Coast does not seem to want to move, which will keep CO under a mostly dry and mild northwest flow aloft for at least the next week. Temps expected to be above seasonal norms today and Saturday statewide, with some gusty westerly winds likely Saturday afternoon and evening, which will increase fire danger for areas absent snow. A weak cold front is expected to move through CO Saturday night, which will cool temps a bit on Sunday, closer to seasonal norms. Slight chance for a brief shower Saturday night with snow level around 9000 ft.

For next week, models keep temps above seasonal norms early in the week. Some isolated afternoon showers will be possible Monday and Tuesday mostly over the central and southern mountains as well as southwest mountains with snow level around 12,000 ft.

Another system will skirt to our north and drag a cold front across CO Wednesday afternoon/evening. A few isolated showers will be possible as front moves through with snow level around 8000-9000 ft. Temps will be much cooler on Thursday in the wake of cold front, but latest models are quite stingy on precip. Temps look to warm to or above seasonal norms by next Friday under mostly sunny skies.

Next weekend currently looks mostly dry and mild, although this time of year things can change quickly. Unfortunately, longer range models do not show a significant change in the large scale pattern through about mid April, which would indicate no major snow events. We are beginning to run out of time if we wish to make it closer to normal snowfall. If this remains the case, we will have elevated fire danger early in the season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 3/29 update

Bump for 3/30 update