wxgeek's weather-Weekend Storm Forecast-Update 4/26

Precip has become widespread across much of CO today, with hevaiest precip from the Divide east to the I-25 corridor. Models still suggest 0.5 tp 1.5 inches of liquid precip, with up to 2 inches from the Palmer Divide south to the NM border. Upper low now centered over northwest NM and models move it eastward across northern NM today and into the TX panhandle Monday morning. Flow aloft will remain mostly southeasterly to easterly today into Monday, thus warmer temps versus a northeast flow. Snow level looks to be between 8000 and 9000 ft today, lowering to 7000 ft overnight. Roads mostly wet but some slush during heavier periods of snow. I expect raods to become more snow and ice packed above 8000 ft this evening as temps cool and snow continues, so Monday morning commute could have slick spots above 7000-8000 ft. Precip will be moderate to heavy at times through tonight, then turning showery on Monday as snow level rises to 8000-9000 ft during the day. Winter Storm Warning out for Front Range Mountains, South park and Foothills above 9000 ft through Noon on Monday for 6-18 inches of snow. Accumulations below 9000 ft will wait until after this evening when snow level and temps lower. Areas between 7000 and 9000 ft could see 2-7 inches by Monday morning. Basically another good precip event for much of CO which will continue to provide ground moisture and reduce fire danger for a while. Precip should end by Monday evening with clearing overnight.

Tuesday through Thursday looks dry and mild statewide, with temps well above seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms retrun to CO on Friday and look to be in the forecats through moct of next week, with temps remaining above seasonal norms and snow level remaining above 10,000 ft.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through CO this evening, and strong storms will persist across the northeast plains into tonight. In addition, precip from upper trough digging across the Great Basin will move into western CO overnight. For the foothills, we should see a small break in the weather overnight into Sunday morning.

Models have remained consistent in digging upper trough and developing a closed upper low near the 4 Corners region Sunday morning, then move the upper low across the NM/CO border during the day on Sunday and into west TX Monday morning. This will provide for a moist and deep upslope flow from Sunday morning into Monday afternoon. Heaviest precip will be from the Divide east with this system. Lots of winter advisories and watches/warning out for higher terrain from the Divide east. Models continue to output from 0.5 to 2.0 inches of liquid precip from this system. The only question remaining is the elevations at which snow versus rain will fall and accumulate. Latest model guidence suggests precip will increase east of the Divide after about Noon on Sunday. Precip could become moderate to heavy at times from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, then turning showery through Monday evening. Snow level looks to hover around 9000 ft during the day on Sunday, lowering to 8000-8500 ft by Sunday evening. Snow level lowers further overnight Sunday to 6500-7500 ft, then rises during the day on Monday to 8000-9000 ft. For snow amounts, models suggest areas above 9000 ft could see 8-18 inches of snow. For areas below 9000 ft, snow amounts will decrease rapidly with elevation, as areas below 7000 may see only a dusting to an inch or two. I beliebe areas from 8000-9000 ft could see 4-12 inches of snow, mostly Sunday evening to Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible during this system, so some thunder snow is not out of the question. For roads, believe they will remain wet during the day on Sunday in the foothills, but could become snow and ice packed Sunday night into Monday morning, especially above 8000 ft, so Monday morning commute could be slower than normal. Showers likely to persist into Monday afternoon, but temps warm enough to keep roads nmostly wet. Precip finally moves out by Monday evening with clearing Monday night.

Remainder of next week looks dry and mild Tuesday through Thursday, then shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday into next weekend and the following week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Clouds and showers beginning to develop across the mountains and foothills, and will spread east into the plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with small hail as snow level remains above 10,000 ft, although snow will be possible down to 8500-9000 ft in showers, but no accumulation expected. Slight chance for storms to become severe across the far eastern plains today, and good chances for severe weather across the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening.

Skies will clear overnight, but some gusty westerly winds may develop over the foothills and plains into Saturday morning. Saturday should start out mostly sunny, but showers and thunderstorms will develop over the High Country by late morning, and spread into the foothills and plains during the afternoon and evening hours. Some showers could produce brief heavy rain and small hail, with the chance for storms to approach severe limits across the northeast plains of CO. Snow level looks to remain above 10,000 ft during the afternoon, but lowering to 8000-9000 ft overnight.

Models suggest most of CO will see some clearing Saturday night before next more powerful system arrives Sunday into Monday. Models remain consistent in bringing upper level trough from the Pacific Northwest to near the 4 Corners region Sunday morning, then closing the upper low off as it moves across northern NM during the day on Sunday and into the TX panhandle by Monday morning. This track provides a favorable upslope precip event from the Divide east on Sunday into Monday. Precip begins early Sunday morning over western CO then moves into eastern CO by late Sunday morning. Snow level looks to be in the 8000-9000 ft level during the day on Sunday, lowering to 7000-8000 ft Sunday night into Monday morning. Precip to become showery by late Monday morning into Monday afternoon, clearing Monday night. For precip amounts, from Sunday morning to Monday evening, models still suggesting from 0.5 to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent. For snow amounts, I believe areas below 8000 ft won't see much accumulation, perhaps a few inches Sunday night into Monday morning. For areas above 8000 ft, there could be from 4 to 14 inches of accumulation, with heaviest amounts at higher elevations above 9000 ft.

For the remainder of next week, upper ridge builds over the Great Basin and keep CO under a dry and mild northwest flow aloft, so mostly dry conditions statewide with temps above seasonal norms Tuesday through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms come back into the forecast from next Friday afternoon through most of the following week, which will help keep fire danger down with the additional moisture.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 4/25 Update

Snowing and sticking in DCVR 8800 feet temp has been dropping quite quickly.

Bump for 4/26 update