Super Local Weather Forecasts

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Chief Meteorologist replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 01 Nov 2015 17:28 #71

The upcoming rain/snow ain't gonna be a big deal. This one is coming in from the NW, and the eastern slopes and foothills usually don't benefit from these types of arrangements.

We will have another small system coming through on Thursday; again, not a big deal. Still waiting for the big southwestern storms to start coming, but that does not look favorable until mid-November.

- Meteorologist Steve

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HappyCamper replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 02 Nov 2015 06:23 #72

Good to hear Thursday will not be a big deal as I need to take my Mom to the Dr. that day.

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HappyCamper replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 13 Nov 2015 12:46 #73

So Steve, what do you think about next week I am seeing snowflakes on the extended forecast?

By the way Congrats on being back on the radio.

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Chief Meteorologist replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 13 Nov 2015 13:44 #74

Well, the deal with Monday night and Tuesday is very uncertain at this point. We use four major weather models to help us "play out" the scenarios, and one of the models is way out there, showing us a lot of snow. The other three say "no big deal".

This is one of those times where we will have to wait a few more hours to see which models come into alignment. There is a fair chance of us ending up with a storm much like the last one, with a few inches of snow and colder weather. The model that is giving us weird returns right now says we will get a major snow event. This is certainly possible, but unlikely.

I will, of course keep watching. Each model is run every 12 hours, except for the short-range which is every hour, but only goes out one day.

Gotta keep an eye on it and give you an update when we know more.

- Steve

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HappyCamper replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 15 Nov 2015 09:01 #75

So do you agree with 9 News they are saying 9 1/2 inches for Bailey?

Do you know where they consider Bailey? I that at the bottom of Crow Hill or do they just have someone they get stats from up here?

Thanks

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Chief Meteorologist replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 15 Nov 2015 09:19 #76

I'm not comparing our forecasts to anyone else, but in general we can say Bailey will get "up to a foot" of new snow. Most of this will come Monday night and Tuesday.

The general trend at this point is that the max upslope potential doesn't begin until late Monday night, so don't look for much foothills snow early in the day. By Monday evening it starts, and then lasts well into Tuesday.

I haven't looked at what anyone else is saying because I've been trying to get this right myself B) Having said that, our latest model runs are showing some slight differences including a cold front passing through with an initial NNW surface wind. This is not good for upslope. That changes late Monday to a more ENE flow and hence more snow in the foothills.

Overall, we are looking at a storm with slightly more snow than the last one (including in the Bailey area), and then a shot of colder air than what we had last week.

Regarding where Bailey weather observations are taken, I have to research that. I'm not sure where NWS sensors are placed (in town or on one of the surrounding hills). Usually you'll want wind obs taken from 10 feet above the highest point around, but that's hard to do in the mountains. Precipitation obs are done at ground level, and air temp is taken 1.5 m above a "grassy surface". Not sure where NWS gets their Bailey information but I will inquire.

I'll have plenty of updates on this storm through today and tomorrow. Thanks! -Steve

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HappyCamper replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 15 Nov 2015 09:37 #77

Thanks will plan on a long drive Tuesday I am glad it will snow wish it would do it on my days off :happysnow: .

Thanks for looking into the rest, I am sure that those folks in Conifer and Evergreen wonder the same thing.

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Chief Meteorologist replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 15 Nov 2015 10:03 #78

I want to encourage everyone to keep checking back with us. Basically, I'm following this storm hour-by-hour.

There are some interesting factors this year, like an historic El Nino event, that are throwing curves into our forecasting. The best thing we can do as meteorologists is to keep you up to date - frequently.

That means two things: 1. You'll want to check back with us frequently. 2. Things may change and we will probably make revisions as we get closer.

It's just a good idea for everyone to stay up to date. We'll be doing our part to bring you the very latest and most accurate information. We may be off on our predictions by a few inches, but we'll do our best to be as close as possible.

- Meteorologist Steve Hamilton

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HappyCamper replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 15 Nov 2015 10:07 #79

Will you be posting here and on Facebook?

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Chief Meteorologist replied the topic: Super Local Weather Forecasts 15 Nov 2015 10:41 #80

Yes, I'll post pertinent info on the board here, and also FB and TW. The thing we don't want is to get everyone in a panic.

The problem we have is that every Denver-area forecaster is saying something different LOL. I heard that one of the TV stations was forecasting 17 inches of snow for Fort Collins. Ugh.

Well, this is "most-likely" not going to be a storm that will bury us with six feet of snow. I say that because the simulations are indicating the system will eject to the northeast rapidly on Tuesday. That means our "snow window" will be fairly short.

Stay tuned, and Thank You! - Steve

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