are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

06 Feb 2020 09:45 - 06 Feb 2020 09:49 #31 by ScienceChic
apnews.com/VirusOutbreak

As of Feb 6 at 2am EST, there are 28,018 confirmed cases in China, and 563 deaths. There's now been a death in Hong Kong as well.

Edit to add: I saw that Tencent story as well, and have no information as to its credibility. While I don't doubt that the numbers of infected and dead are under-reported, the question is how much? This kind of thing is easy to stoke fears with misinformation, so I'm very skeptical of anything claiming that high of numbers without independent verification from the WHO. All we can do is keep an eye on the situation as it develops.

"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

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06 Feb 2020 10:26 #32 by FredHayek
Did see a heartbreaking story on a number of media sites talking about the death of a Coronavirus doctor. He was the first to notice something going wrong and tried to inform the government. The government ignored/suppressed his warnings, and the man eventually succumbed to the disease he was trying to warn about. This is a little disturbing for another reason. The pictures of the doctor seem to show a middle aged Chinese man without any other health concerns. So it might be more deadly than just the normal risk groups. As a doctor, you have to think he would have taken unusual steps to prevent his own contamination. Unless he found himself overworked trying to treat so many patients.

Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.

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06 Feb 2020 14:44 - 06 Feb 2020 14:46 #33 by Pony Soldier
Nevermind.... bad info

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06 Feb 2020 20:32 #34 by FNP
Here's the Lancet published study www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/articl...(20)30260-9/fulltext

Here's the projection based on the Lancet study in the Taiwan news
www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3872448

Admittedly the Taiwanese aren't China's best friends but the math the article used from the study is pretty straightforward.
The following user(s) said Thank You: ScienceChic

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06 Feb 2020 22:14 #35 by ScienceChic
Thank you FNP!

"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

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07 Feb 2020 10:52 #36 by FredHayek
Voyage of the Dammed?
There is a Holland America cruise ship that had Coronavirus victims on it sailing around Japan. Japan lets it dock to get food and take off new CV patients diagnosed but so far it will not let the other passengers fly out of Japan. The ship is in a bit of a dilemma. They have already cancelled their next cruise. They are thinking about going to Manilla or back to the States if either place will accept the "plague boat'.

Second topic: Many rich Chinese have second homes in Canada and the United States. I wonder if they are also trying to get out of China. Should the US and Canada let them in?

Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.

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07 Feb 2020 12:05 #37 by FNP
A bit of history on the impact of shipping [global movement] on the Spanish influenza. www.heritage.nf.ca/articles/politics/191...anish-flu-impact.php

Note they had the same problems being experienced today and we learned back then that quarantine was the answer. tedium.co/2017/10/16/american-samoa-spanish-flu/

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07 Feb 2020 17:51 #38 by Pony Soldier
They didn't have common instantaneous worldwide travel back then. I fear this will be much worse.

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10 Feb 2020 08:11 #39 by Pony Soldier
files.catbox.moe/n36xny.pdf

This study, while not yet peer reviewed, pretty well sums up the case that the virus has been engineered. China essentially nuked themselves with a biological weapon.

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10 Feb 2020 09:52 #40 by FredHayek

Pony Soldier wrote: files.catbox.moe/n36xny.pdf

This study, while not yet peer reviewed, pretty well sums up the case that the virus has been engineered. China essentially nuked themselves with a biological weapon.


My virus protection wouldn't let me into your source, it would be interesting if this is the case. Personally I think it is more random than that. I am going to stick with the bushmeat theory on how this disease jumped species.

Came across something bizarre this weekend, the Chinese government thinks it is racist if other nations refuse to visit and do business with their nation at this time. Um, even Chinese people are doing the best they can to minimize contact with other Chinese! The Beijing government was demanding that people go back to work this week. I worry this will only make things worse. Risk so many more lives to keep the economy going.

Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.

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