wxgeek's weather-More wet & Cool weather thru Memorial day-Update 5/22

In general, wet and cool weather will prevail through Memorial Day across CO. Temps will remain below seasonal norms, and rainfall will continue to push towards record monthly values in some areas. Stream and rivers will remain at very high levels, with some above flood stage.

Precip is slowly moving from south to north through CO. Areas south of I-70 may see some clearing by late this morning into early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will then be possible this afternoon and evening from the mountains to the plains. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the northeast plains this afternoon and evening. Snow level has remained mostly above 10,000 ft and should stay above 10,000 ft today. Precip could persist through about midnight tonight, especially on the plains.

We should see a small break in the precip Saturday morning, but clouds and precip chances increase Saturday afternoon and evening with activity developing over the mountains and moving into the foothills and plains by afternoon and evening. Decent chance for severe thunderstorms to develop east of I-25 Saturday afternoon and evening as good instability and shear profile are expected. Thunderstorms may contain small to medium hail and some tornadoes will be possible. Snow level expected to remain above 10,000 ft. Once again, activity could persist into the overnight hours, especially on the plains Saturday night.

Upper trough will be over CO on Sunday, so expect more showers and thunderstorms to develop over the mountains and move into the foothills and plains by afternoon and into evening hours. Snow level may be lower Sunday as colder upper air aloft will be over CO, so snow level could lower to 9000-10,000 ft Sunday.

For Monday, expect a similar patter to Sunday, with perhaps slightly lower precip chances and coverage, and slightly warmer temps.

For next week, Tuesday and Wednesday look drier and warmer, with only isolated precip chances mostly over higher terrain. Then Thursday through next weekend look to have better precip chances and slightly cooler temps. Thus our record precip in May looks to continue right on through the end of the month.

So far in May on Conifer Mountain, I have recorded 5.28 inches of precip, making this the second wettest month I have recorded, last July being the wettest at 5.6 inches. We have also had measurable precip on 20 out of 22 days so far, along with 14 inches of snow. No mention of fire danger in May.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Clouds and showers beginning to move into CO as part of a short wave upper trough moving from AZ into CO today. Precip will increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and evening, with precip persisting overnight in many areas. Models suggest from 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain will be possible across much of the foothills and Urban Corridor through Friday morning. Snow level looks to be from 9000-10,000 ft tonight, with heaviest accumulations above 10,000 ft. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory through 6 am Friday for the Front Range mountains and mountains areas east of the Divide for 4-8 inches of snow. For foothill areas, believe areas above 9000 ft may see 1-3 inches of heavy wet snow/slush once again. Precip is expected to diminish Friday morning with some clearing later in the morning. Streams may once again see some rises overnight into Friday afternoon.

On Friday, showers and thunderstorms will again develop over the High Country in the afternoon and drift into the foothills and Urban Corridor and plains through the evening hours. Activity should die down after sunset, and snow level expected to remain above 10,000 ft. Temps will continue to be below seasonal norms.

On Saturday, looks like a decent start to the day, with most precip expected to be along and west of the Divide, although isolated showers and thunderstorms may drift into the foothills and Urban Corridor. There will be a slight chance for severe thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon and evening across the far eastern plains of CO, with stronger storms expected farther east into KS, OK and TX. Snow level should be above 12,000 ft Saturday and temps should be slightly below seasonal norms.

As upper trough remains over CO on Sunday, expect more afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to develop, with higher precip chances for most areas. Snow level could lower to 10,000 ft on Sunday with temps remaining below seasonal norms.

Monday should start out nice, with chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mostly along and west of I-25 with best chances over higher terrain of foothills and mountains. Snow level expected to be above 10,000 ft and temps remain slightly below seasonal norms.

For the remainder of next week, expect slightly warmer temps, perhaps even at or slightly above seasonal norms with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Longer range models suggest a pattern change may occur in June, with upper ridge replacing upper trough along the West Coast. This would imply drier and warmer weather for CO, so we will see what transpires, but June is typically a warm and relatively dry month for CO. May has certainly been wetter and cooler than average. We will exceed 5 inches of precip in May on Conifer Mountain, which is a first, and this will become the second wettest month on record since 2006.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Mostly cloudy and cool day across eastern CO, with stratus deck and fog below about 8000 ft. More sun to the west, and showers have begun to pop up over the mountains and into the foothills. Storm motion today will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph. Expect only light precip amounts today in areas that do receive showers, which will be mostly west of I-25 across higher terrain of the foothills and Palmer Divide. Showers should die down after sunset with snow level 9000-10,000 ft.

Upper level low currently off the central CA coast and is forecast to move into southern CA Friday. Ahead of this, a piece of energy well defined on satellite imagery will move across CO Thursday into Friday morning. Thus, precip chances increase Thursday afternoon across much of CO, and precip is expected to persist into overnight hours, with models suggesting up to an inch of precip will be possible from the Divide to the Urban Corridor. Snow level looks to be from 8500-9500 ft Thursday night, so higher areas will again have a chance for more snow, and streams that have begun to recede will again be on the rise. Models suggest precip to end by early Friday morning, with some clearing Friday through about Noon. Showers and thunderstorms then expected to develop over the mountains mostly along and west of the Divide, with some activity drifting into the foothills and Urban Corridor into Friday evening. Snow level looks to be above 10,000 ft Friday. Flow aloft will remain from the southwest over Co through Monday.

For the holiday weekend, Saturday is looking to start out ok. Activity Saturday looks to be focused along and west of the Divide, but isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible into the Urban Corridor and plains later in the evening. Good severe weather potential Saturday over the central and southern Plains from KS to TX. Snow level in CO should remain above 10,000 ft. Sunday and Monday look similar, with mostly sunny starts to the day, then isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with snow level remaining above 10,000 ft. Temps will get closer to seasonal norms Sunday and Monday as well.

For next week, Tuesday and Wednesday look drier and warmer with only slight chances for precip statewide. Models then suggest better precip chances Thursday into next weekend. Models then suggest colder and wetter weather to start June off.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Upper level circulation remains over NV today with a moist southwest flow aloft over CO. Heavy precipitation band overnight has moved into far northeast CO this afternoon, with more showers developing over western CO that will move into the foothills and Urban Corridor into this evening. Thunderstorms currently confined to western CO west of the Divide, but some may drift into the foothills this evening. Snow level remaining around 8000-9000 ft today. Precip will diminish this evening with clearing overnight, although fog may develop by early morning with so much low level moisture.

We may even see the sun for a while on Wednesday although temps will remain below seasonal norms. Only isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday, with best chances from the Divide to the Urban Corridor. Snow level should remain in the 9000-10,000 ft range Wednesday.

On Thursday, expect slightly better precip chances as a weak disturbance is forecast to move across CO, so afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms from western CO into the Urban Corridor. Precip chances will persist overnight Thursday night, especially across the eastern plains. Snow level should remain above 10,000 ft Thursday, although temps will remain slightly below seasonal norms still.

For the Friday through Monday period, next upper level low from CA will move into the Great Basin Saturday, then move into WY and northern CO Sunday. Although CO will receive precip and temps will remain below seasonal norms, models suggest precip amounts will not be anywhere near what we have seen from the last 2 such events. Showers and thunderstorms Friday will be most likely along and west of the Divide, with some activity moving into the foothills and Urban Corridor. Snow level should remain above 10,000 ft. On Saturday, similar situation to Friday with showers and thunderstorms developing over the mountains, then drifting into the foothills and Urban Corridor. Far eastern plains may see some stronger storms Saturday that could become severe. Snow level expected to remain above 10,000 ft. On Sunday, there may be a slight increase in precip, especially west of I-25, but showers and thunderstorms still expected to be scattered and precip amounts expected to remain relatively light. Overall, a more typical summer type pattern for most of the Memorial Day weekend with mostly sunny starts, then increasing clouds and a chance for an afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm. A similar pattern is expected on Memorial Day. Temps may even approach seasonal norms Sunday and Monday. Overall, the weekend should be ok to get out and enjoy some outdoor activities, as long as you are prepared for a few showers/thunderstorms.

For the remainder of next week, similar pattern Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Models suggest some further warming and drying late next week into next weekend, as temps may even get above seasonal norms, and we may actually see a day without any precip in some locations. Interesting that longer range models suggest the chance for a tropical system forming off the coast of Baja early the following week, which would be early for such a storm, but given how warm the water in the Eastern Pacific is, not too surprising. An El Nino pattern promotes a very active Eastern Pacific tropical season, whereas the Atlantic/Caribbean season is expected to be below average.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

It's gonna be a soggy next 24-36 hours. After some morning rain, snow and fog in the foothills, showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over western CO with some drifting into the foothills and Urban Corridor. Storm motion today will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph. Snow level dropped to around 8000 ft this morning with 2 inches of snow above 9000 ft. Snow level expected to rise to 9000-10,000 ft during the day.

Upper level low is currently over central CA and is forecast to move into the Great Basin on Tuesday morning and move across CO as an open trough during the day on Tuesday. Heavy precip will move into western CO this evening and tonight and spread into the foothills and eastern CO tonight into Tuesday afternoon. Strong difluent southerly flow aloft will be over CO tonight, then shift to southwesterly during the day on Tuesday. Snow level is expected to remain from 9000-10,000 ft tonight into Tuesday morning, then begin to lower Tuesday afternoon and evening to about 7500-8500 ft. Heaviest snow will remain above 10,000 ft with a Winter Storm Warning in effect for mountain areas from 6 pm today through 6 pm Tuesday for 10-20 inches of snow. Travel across mountain areas will be difficult with winter driving conditions. For our foothills, I believe areas above 9000 ft may see 2-6 inches of snow accumulate from tonight through Tuesday evening. Below 9000 ft, areas may see some snow, but most of it will melt and not accumulate until Tuesday afternoon and evening when a dusting to an inch or so may stick. Roads will likely remain wet below 9000 ft, with some snow sticking to roads above 9000 ft. Models suggest many areas of CO will see 1-2 inches of liquid equivalent between this morning and Wednesday morning. Precip will begin to diminish Tuesday evening, and clearing Tuesday night, although areas of fog will be possible with all the moisture on the ground. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through Tuesday evening, with strongest storms east of I-25, and some may become severe Tuesday afternoon over the plains as shear profile remains favorable. Along with the heavy rain, streams and rivers will once again be on the rise with some approaching flood levels, so localized flooding will be possible through Wednesday in prone areas. Temps will remain well below seasonal norms today through Wednesday.

By Wednesday, flow aloft becomes westerly as short wave upper ridge builds over CO, yet temps will remain below seasonal norms. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop Wednesday afternoon and evening from the Divide into the Urban Corridor, with snow level at or above 10,000 ft. Thursday looks to be a repeat of Wednesday, with temps slightly below seasonal norms and a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Next upper level low will move from the Gulf of Alaska to southern CA by Friday, and then over western CO on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread across western CO Friday afternoon and evening, with precip moving into eastern CO Saturday. Snow level looks to remain at or above 10,000 ft over the Memorial Day weekend, but higher mountain areas will get more snow for those thinking of venturing into the wilderness. Be prepared for winter conditions above 10,000 ft. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Sunday and Monday, but mornings should start out mostly to partly sunny, and temps will be close to seasonal norms. Precip will be less widespread than on Saturday. With all the recent precip, the ground will remain saturated and streams and rivers will continue to run high and fast, so use caution if venturing out for the holiday weekend.

For an extended look, precip chances look to remain over CO nearly every day next week with a more typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms type pattern, and temps should warn to near or above seasonal norms. Fire danger looks to remain low into early June.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Showers and some isolated thunderstorms moving across CO today with storm motion from the west at 20-30 mph. Snow level remaining at or above 10,000 ft. A back door cold front will push into northeast CO tonight and may push some upslope flow and light precip into the Urban Corridor and foothills, with snow level lowering to 8000-9000 ft, but only a light dusting at most expected. Some dense fog may move into foothill areas tonight into Monday morning.

On Monday, upper level low over central CA will begin to move east towards CO. Moist southerly flow will increase precip chances from western CO into eastern CO through the day on Monday. Precip is expected to persist, heavy at times, overnight Monday night into Tuesday evening with isolated thunderstorms. Snow level could lower to 8500-9000 ft at times Monday night into Tuesday evening. NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for mountain areas east of the Divide into the Front Range mountains above 9000 ft for 10-20 inches of snow. Models suggest 1-2 inches of liquid precip is possible for areas east of the Divide into the Urban Corridor Monday into Tuesday evening. I don't think foothill areas below 8000 ft will see any accumulation, but areas above 9000 ft could see several inches of snow by Tuesday evening, mostly on grassy surfaces, and areas above 10,000 ft will see significant accumulations. So expect some slower than usual driving conditions Monday into Tuesday evening.

Upper trough moves east Tuesday night, so drier and warmer conditions will exist Wednesday and Thursday as short wave upper ridge moves over CO. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but coverage and intensity will be less.

Next upper level trough will move from CA across CO Friday into Saturday, so expect increased precip chances Friday into Sunday for the Memorial Day weekend, but snow level looks to remain above 10,000 ft. Monday looks warmer but afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain possible as atmosphere remains moist.

The following week looks to feature precip chances nearly every day as well.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 5/18 update

bump for 5/19 update

Bump for 5/20 update

Bump for 5/22 update

Bump for 5/22 update