wxgeek's weather-Cool with Precip, Warmer and Drying Later in the Week

Morning low clouds and showers are beginning to dissipate across eastern CO, but a batch of monsoon moisture is moving into western CO and will help new showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening. Storm motion today will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph. Activity will be heaviest in the mountains and foothills, but precip is expected to move into the Urban Corridor later this afternoon and evening. Not too much precip is expected east of I-25 as atmosphere on the plains remains cool and more stable. With abundant moisture and slow storm motion, mountain and foothill areas could see some periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding through this evening. Activity could persist through about midnight. Conditions will also remain hazy and smokey on the plains as smoke is being advected into CO from large fires in western Canada. Flow aloft will continue to transport smoke into CO through Tuesday, then flow pattern will shift by Wednesday.

Upper low remains off the central CA coast, and upper High remains over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will allows good flow of monsoon moisture into CO. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance will pass over CO on Wednesday, so precip is expected to be heavy at times from the mountains to the plains on Wednesday. Activity will fire up by late morning in the mountains and move east into the foothills and Urban Corridor by afternoon, and into the plains by evening. Models suggest 1-2 inches of precip will be possible in some areas Wednesday, so localized flooding may be an issue once again. Storm motion should be from the west at 10-20 mph.

By Thursday upper low off CA begins to move into the Great Basin as an upper trough. Upper High remains over the lower MS Valley, so southwest monsoon flow will continue across CO. Expect typical diurnal round of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, with heaviest amounts over the mountains and foothills. Activity should die down shortly after sunset.

By Friday into Sunday, upper level High begins to migrate westward towards CO and end up over west TX by Sunday. This still allows a southwest flow aloft to transport monsoon moisture into CO, but warmer temps aloft will keep precip amounts lower and less coverage. In addition, temps will warm back closer to seasonal norms Friday through Sunday. Thus, there will still be afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, but confined mostly to higher elevations of the mountains and foothills.

For next week, latest models keep the upper High position somewhere near the TX panhandle and eastern NM. As the ridge axis remains to our east, this will continue to allow monsoon moisture into CO and provide daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across much of CO, with best chances over the mountains and foothills. Models suggest upper High may shift farther east next weekend into the following week, which would keep monsoon pattern going over CO. Precip on Conifer Mountain is rapidly approaching 2 inches for July through the first 7 days, so we are off to a wet start of the monsoon season. Average precip in July is 3.31 inches, and it appears we are on pace to exceed that.

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