Russian Mars Probe in Trouble

Scientists grew excited last week as Russia's planned its first interplanetary mission in 15 years. By now, the ambitious mission should be powering through space, toward the Martian moon Phobos.

Instead, Russia's space agency spent Friday discussing uncontrolled reentry scenarios.

Authorities may be looking for someone to blame after a lengthy string of mission failures. According to an Interfax bulletin, an anonymous source indicated that this may force reform in the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, and "a number of positions of responsible persons" could face jail time.

As if that news weren't bad enough, this could be an uncontrolled toxic reentry scenario.

Phobos-Grunt -- correctly written "Fobos-Grunt," meaning "Phobos-Soil" or "Phobos-Ground" -- is fully laden with unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide; that's ten tons of fuel and oxidizer. The probe itself weighs in at only three tons.

ANALYSIS: Time Running Short for Stranded Mars Probe

The majority of the fuel will likely vaporize during reentry, but everyone will be hoping for a splash-down in an ocean (which covers two-thirds of Earth, fortunately), as the wreckage will still be hazardous. There's also a small quantity of radioactive cobalt-57 in one of the science missions housed in the probe -- a fact that will most likely cause a media frenzy.

It is for these reasons that the Russian media is dubbing Phobos-Grunt "the most toxic falling satellite ever."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/11/11/toxic-russian-mars-probe-heading-back-to-earth/?test=latestnews#ixzz1dWTzcLNj

I wonder how many more revolutions it will make before it comes down, it will be one heck of a light show for anyone who can see the last one. While the probability of it coming down on land is low, if it does come down on land it could be a real diplomatic problem for Russia especially if it comes down in a populated area.

This story is so poorly written I had to go elsewhere to figure out what was going on.

The first sentence of a story from Space.com explains what happened:

Russian engineers are scrambling to save the Phobos-Grunt spacecraft amid ever-bleaker signs the mission may be lost. The probe was launched uneventfully Nov. 8, but soon afterward its thruster failed to fire to send it on a course toward Mars, leaving the spacecraft stranded in Earth orbit.

Later, it plays down the "media frenzy" over re-entry:

As I write this, late Thursday afternoon (Nov. 10), there are dozens of articles floating around, numerous blogs, and thousands of tweets all expressing similar fears of a worst-case scenario in which the Phobos-Grunt spacecraft and its entire 12-ton load of toxic fuel comes down on a populated area two weeks from now.

However, as far as I can tell, the likelihood of such a scenario is not substantiated by any credible source. Should the entire spacecraft come down, experts are saying that, most likely, the fuel would burn up high in the atmosphere. Yes, there is concern that after enough time in space the fuel might freeze and thus make it to the ground, a potential environmental disaster, but that scenario is built upon several "ifs."

http://www.space.com/13596-phobos-grunt ... vaged.html

And we are dependent on them to supply and service the ISS. :bash

Maybe we can have China shoot it down.