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First Ebola Case to hit the US
16 Oct 2014 15:14 #13
by FredHayek
Vegas used to have a bet that your chance of getting Ebola was a million to one, it has now dropped to five hundred thousand to one.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
Replied by FredHayek on topic First Ebola Case to hit the US
Vegas used to have a bet that your chance of getting Ebola was a million to one, it has now dropped to five hundred thousand to one. Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
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11 Dec 2014 09:43 #16
by ScienceChic
Ebola Infections Fewer Than Predicted by Disease Models
Improvements in health care and other uncertainties make accurate forecasts difficult
December 8, 2014 |By Seema Yasmin
From the CDC . This result is great news for vaccine development. The more stable it is, then an effective vaccine doesn't have to be re-created soon.
And the update on the Ebola vaccine, as first posted by Fred Hayak :
U.S. Ebola Vaccine Clears Safety Test
The candidate drug will be tested next to see how well it can help prevent infection
December 1, 2014 |By Ewen Callaway and Nature magazine
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
Replied by ScienceChic on topic First Ebola Case to hit the US
It looks like that model wasn't too far off.ScienceChic wrote: That being said, we have a ways to go with this outbreak; athough, if this model is validated, then it appears that it will be less severe than the WHO is currently predicting.
This Math Model Is Predicting the Ebola Outbreak with Incredible Accuracy
Written by Michael Byrne
October 14, 2014Modeling how disease spreads early in an outbreak is a major challenge as sample sizes remain low and variables high. But a recently-developed method of making short-term outbreak projections called the IDEA model has shown promise, and is even doing an excellent job of tracking the current Ebola outbreak.
"If validated, the implications of such a finding may be profound," wrote the model's creators in an open-access 2013 paper in PLOS One, "e.g., the ability to project, with a high degree of accuracy, the final size and duration of a seasonal influenza outbreak within 2 weeks of onset."
The graph above shows how the model is faring with the current Ebola outbreak. So far, it's nearly perfect. If the IDEA model continues to predict the epidemic with the same accuracy, we can expect Ebola to start burning out in December, with a total of 14,000 cases. Currently, according to the CDC there are or have been 8,400.
Ebola Infections Fewer Than Predicted by Disease Models
Improvements in health care and other uncertainties make accurate forecasts difficult
December 8, 2014 |By Seema Yasmin
more than 17,000 people have been infected and more than 6,000 have died since the outbreak began.
From the CDC . This result is great news for vaccine development. The more stable it is, then an effective vaccine doesn't have to be re-created soon.
All viruses mutate or change. Even as #Ebola mutates, it would be very unusual for it to change how it is transmitted. Scientists don’t think #Ebola will change to become more easily spread. Learn why in this update from CDC: 1.usa.gov/1BkKIu1 .
And the update on the Ebola vaccine, as first posted by Fred Hayak :
U.S. Ebola Vaccine Clears Safety Test
The candidate drug will be tested next to see how well it can help prevent infection
December 1, 2014 |By Ewen Callaway and Nature magazine
An experimental vaccine against Ebola virus seems to be safe and commands a strong immune response against the virus, according to tests in 20 healthy people in the United States. The results of the phase 1 trial are published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
“The next steps are to move ahead with a larger efficacy trial in West Africa.”
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
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