are numbers mounting? OR nothing to see here

<Snicker> that made me laugh out loud, thanks koobookie.

All kidding aside, I spent this past weekend with a spray bottle of 10% bleach (because that's what we used to use in the lab to kill and disinfect) spraying and wiping down every door handle, kitchen counter surface, kitchen cabinet handle, and every door handle/seatbelt buckle/radio and temperature control button/gear shift/arm rest/etc in each vehicle we drive. My family has strict instructions to wash their hands as soon as they come in from school/work, and admonishments to do the same while not home. Hubby's work is monitoring the situation and putting in place plans for when to decide to limit work travel. Facebook and Twitter have pulled out of the SXSW Conference, and many other large conferences are being called off or few many fewer attendees are showing up.

The number of cases in the U.S. is severely under-reported and will continue to climb significantly this month. Luckily, it isn't as deadly as the flu or other viruses, but it's almost certain that this virus will become endemic in the population and be a global health issue for the next 1-2 years.

If you aren't following Trevor Bedford (and @HelenBranswell on Twitter about this, you really should be.

Washington State risks seeing explosion in coronavirus cases without dramatic action, new analysis says
By Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell, March 3, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak and implications for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games
Viviana Gallego, Hiroshi Nishiura, Ranjit Sah, Alfonso J.Rodriguez-Morales
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
Available online 26 February 2020
doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101604

The 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 50 million worldwide (population 1.9 billion) had a CFR of ~2.5%, whereas usual seasonal flu is 0.1%. COVID-19 is currently estimated at 3.4%.

Cryptic transmission of novel coronavirus revealed by genomic epidemiology
2 Mar 2020 by Trevor Bedford - Blog

The field of genomic epidemiology focuses on using the genetic sequences of pathogens to understand patterns of transmission and spread. Viruses mutate very quickly and accumulate changes during the process of transmission from one infected individual to another. The novel coronavirus which is responsible for the emerging COVID-19 pandemic mutates at an average of about two mutations per month. After someone is exposed they will generally incubate the virus for ~5 days before symptoms develop and transmission occurs. Other research has shown that the "serial interval" of SARS-CoV-2 is ~7 days.

Last week the Seattle Flu Study started screening samples for COVID-19 as described here. Soon after starting screening we found a first positive in a sample from Snohomish County. The case was remarkable in that it was a "community case", only the second recognized in the US, someone who had sought treatment for flu-like symptoms, been tested for flu and then sent home owing to mild disease.

After this point, community spread occurred and was undetected due to the CDC narrow case definition that required direct travel to China or direct contact with a known case to even be considered for testing. This lack of testing was a critical error and allowed an outbreak in Snohomish County and surroundings to grow to a sizable problem before it was even detected.

Knowing that transmission was initiated on Jan 15 allows us to estimate the total number of infections that exist in this cluster today. Our preliminary analysis puts this at 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500 infections.

This suggests that this is controllable. We're at a critical junction right now, but we can still mitigate this substantially.

Yes, he really did ask if we could just administer the flu vaccine for the corona virus.
President Trump Meeting with Pharmaceutical Executives Corona Virus - CSPAN