wxgeek's weather-Cool with Some Snow -update Mon Feb 13

Mon Feb 13

Some lingering moutain snow west of the Divide today before the next Pacific system moves into CO Tuesday. Models now suggest that this next system will dissipate as it moves across southern CO and northern NM on Tuesday into Wednesday. The result will be that the mountains west of the divide will still receive a good shot of snow, but it now looks like the foothills and Plains will escape anything beyond a light dusting. Southwest mountains will again receive the heaviest snow, with another 6-12 inches possible from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. Central and Northern mountains will likely receive 3-7 inches.

Beyond Wednesday, forecast is very uncertain. The GFS and Euro drive the next upper trough into the desert soutwhest later this week, which would leave CO mostly dry. The NAM/WRF keep this upper trough over UT/CO which would bring additional snow to the mountains, and even the foothills and Plains on Thursday. I'm currently leaning towards the GFS solution as it has been more consistent, so would go with a cool and mostly dry forecast for Wednesday through Friday, with only some light snow over the mountains west of the Divide through this period.

For this coming weekend, GFS model brings another upper trough across CO which would include chances for snow across the mountains and foothills and Plains on Saturday and leave Sunday mostly dry. GFS keeps early next week dy, while the Euro brings a system across CO on Monday. Hence, lots of uncertainty in the extended forecast. Hopefully model runs later this week will clarify the forecast some. The bottom line is that the weather pattern remains active across CO as large upper ridge remains in the eastern Pacific. This locked pattern is related to the severe cold outbreak across Europe this past week where a large upper low has parked over southern Europe combined with very cold acrtic air at the surface. Europe has broken some all time record cold temp records this past week, especially in Italy and the Balkan countries. Many rivers like the Danube have frozen over and halted all shipping, while the canals of Venice are frozen as well.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Sat Feb 11

Getting some finer details now from models on upcoming storms. Clouds ahead of our next system beginning to move across CO this afternoon. Snow will begin in western CO early Sunday morning, heaviest across the southwest mountains where 5-10 inches likely. Snow moves east during the day but remains heaviest west of the Divide where 3-7 inches likely across the central and northern mountains. Snow will move to the Front Range crest by afternoon, and some snow now likely across the foothills and Palmer Divide Sunday afternoon and evening. Currently looks like anywhere from a dusting to 1-3 inches in more favored areas. Only very light snow expected to make it to the Urban Corridor. Snow should end by Monday morning, but roads could be slick from nighttime snow for the Monday morning commute.

Monday light snow or flurries will persist west of the Divide in the mountains, while the foothills and Plains are mostly sunny. Temps to remain near seasonal norms on Monday. Next system which looks a little stronger will begin to affect western CO Tuesday, again with heaviest snow across the southwest mountains where another 5-10 inches seems reasonable. Snow will move east into the central and northern mountains Tiesday afternoon, and across the foothills and Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system looks like it could produce 3-6 inches over favored foothill areas between Tuesday night and Wednesday evening. Snow should die down Wednesday night. This system could develop even more and become a stronger system, so bears watching.

Models keep things cool but dry Thursday into Saturday with only very light snow west of the Divide on Saturday, before the next system is forecats to affect CO next Sunday. Long range models continue to keep a very active storm track across CO into the extended future.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Fri Feb 10

A weak upper level trough will combine with a back door cold front today that will bring snow to the northern and north central mountains. As the cold front drops south and pushes up against the Front Range, low clouds, light snow and some freezing drizzle will develop tonight into Saturday morning. Model output and forecast soundings indicate the clouds will extend up to about 8500-9500 ft against the foothills, so areas below this will experience the cold, cloudy and damp weather. Areas higher and farther west will only see partly cloudy conditions on Saturday. The clouds could cause very low visibilities tonight and Saturday morning in the foothills, so be careful if driving up or down the hill and pls make sure to turn your headights on in such conditions. I would not expect any significant accumulation from this event, maybe a dusting to an inch at most.

Clouds should hang on across the Plains and foothills into Saturday afternoon or evening, but any precip should end by Saturday afternoon. The next system from the Pacific Northwest will drop into CO on Sunday. Snow will begin to affect the mountains west of Vail Pass late Saturday night and move east to the Front Range crest during the day on Sunday. Currently looks like 4-8 inches possible across higher terrain west of the Divide. In the foothills we may see some light snow or flurries Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, but any accumulation looks light, so a dusting to an inch or two.

West of the Divide, periods of snow will exist nearly all of next week with the heaviest amounts on Tuesday and Wednesday. East of the divide, we may see some light snow or flurries Tuesday through Thursday, but any accumulation looks to be pretty light at this time.

Long range models indicate this pattern of fast moving systems from the Pacific Northwest moving across CO will persist through the end of February. This means quite a bit of snow to the mountains west of the Divide, especially the northern and central mountains, with periods of light snow for the foothills and Plains. It is possible one of these systems could dig and develop into a major system, but long range models have a hard time determining if and when that would happen. The bottom line is that temps will be at or below seasonal norms for the next 7-14 days, and we will have chances for snow frequently during this period.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Sat Feb 11 update

Bump for Monday Feb 13 Update