Upper ridge currently centered over CO, which will keep temps very warm and will enable trapped mid level moisture to combine with some inflow of southern Plains moisture at the surface to aid showers and thunderstorms to form over the High Country and foothills this afternoon and evening. Because of very weak flow aloft today, there is a minor flooding threat from heavier storms due to slow movement. Movement will also be a little strange today, with storms moving from the southeast to the northwest. Only slight chance storms will form over the Plains, but best chances will be over southeast CO later this evening and tonight, with a slight chance some of these storms will approach severe limits. Most activity in the foothills will die down after sunset.
As upper ridge moves east on Tuesday, we will begin to see a stronger southwest flow aloft, which will also bring drier air from the west into the mountains and foothills, so afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity will begin to shift towards the foothills and Plains on Tuesday where better low level moisture exists. We may also see some increase of smoke from the very large Whitewater-Baldy fire (233,000 acres and 17% contained) in NM this week under southwest flow aloft. Currently looks like smoke trajectory will remain mostly to our south, but some smoke is possible in addition to smoke from still active fire outside Pagosa Springs.
For Wednesday, nearly all activity should remain east of the foothills. With stronger southwest flow aloft, some storms over northeast CO could approach severe limits Wednesday afternoon/evening. Similar pattern should exist for Thursday with most precip staying east of I-25.
Later this week, another upper trough moves from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies which will increase southwest flow aloft over CO. This will create a mostly dry, warm and breezy pattern for Friday through Sunday across most of CO. This will lead to fire weather concerns as ground moisture from recent rain dries out, and red flag conditions will be present.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
