wxgeek's weather-Storm forecast this weekend-Update 2/22

Update 2/22
Complex systems have complexities. In this case, appears models overdid snow amounts for most areas of CO. Looking at latest reports, most areas of plains and foothills are in the 2-12 inch range, with some reports in Boulder and north Jefferson Co in the 12-24 inch range. Most mountain areas have reported 2-12 inches past 24 hours. So a decent snow event for CO, but nowhere near the hype the models portrayed.

For today, heaviest snow is across southeast CO and KS this morning. Models persist in moving heavy snow back aross southern CO and into southwest CO by this evening. As the heavy snow moves back west today, models continue to suggest the foothills, especially southern foothills could pick up a decent amount of additional snow, somewhere in the 2-8 inch range. I am a bit skeptical based on past performance and cold temps across eastern CO at this time, so based on this, I could see anywhere from a trace of additional snow to perhaps up to 6 inches for favored foothills areas today. Flow aloft will be from the southeast today, so this is not our favored direction either which could limit additional snowfall. Southern mountains and southwest mountains may see some good snow later today into tonight. For eastern CO, snow should diminish after midnight and end by early Monday morning. Unless we see some enhanced snow later today, roads should be in decent shape by Monday morning.

Temps will remain cold Monday but sun should peek out most of the day. Snow will end across western CO by Monday evening. On Tuesday, we should see mostly sunny conditions statewide with temps back near seasonal norms.

Next system scheduled to arrive Wednesday afternoon with snow moving into the northern mountains and areas north of I-70. By evening, cold front will bring colder temps and snow to most areas of CO. Snow could be moderate to heavy Wednesday night with several inches possible for most areas primarily along and east of the Divide. Cold temps and light snow could persist for much of the day on Thursday, with snow diminishing Thursday night.Friday looks to remain cool with some flurries possible, especially west of the Divide.

Next system arrives Saturday and brings snow to western CO during the day. Snow moves east into eastern Co Saturday night into Sunday night, with models suggesting a chance for good snow amounts at this time. Models then bring another strong system from the northwest into CO the following week, so more snow will be possible much of the following week. Details will be provided as these events get closer in time.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Snow starting to fill in across most of CO at this time. Latest models consistent in bringing heavy snow to the foothills, Urban Corridor and plain this afternoon into tonight, with heaviest snow migrating to southeast CO by early Sunday morning. Heaviest snow then migrates westward on Sunday back over the foothills, central and southwest mountains. Most model output is still in the 1.0 to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent, and snow to water ratio of 12:1 to 18:1, you can do the math. Previous snow amounts still valid. For the Foothills, totals will depend on how much snow we get Sunday morning to Sunday night. Most areas will pick up 8-14 inches this afternoon into Sunday morning, so additional amounts will depend on snow intensity Sunday. I currently believe foothills will see light to moderate snow most of Sunday as well, so an additional 3-8 inches expected through Monday morning. Very heavy snow Sunday into Monday morning for the central and southwest mountrains, where storm totals may be in the 2-3 feet range by Monday evening. Snow should diminish in the foothills Sunday night, with some lingering light snow into Monday morning. Snow will end Sunday evening over the Urban Corridor and plains. Snow persists in the mountains through Monday evening and night.
Thus travel to be difficult through Monday morning, but Monday evening commute back up should be ok.

Looking ahead, it appears we are in for a snowy end to February and early March. Upper level pattern now looks to remain with upper ridge in the eastern Pacific which allows cold systems to move down from northwest Canada into Great Basin and Rockies. Next system to impact CO will be next Wednesday into Frday when several more inches expected across much of CO. At this time looks like 4-10 inches will be possible for the foothills. Short break before another potent looking storm impacts CO next weekend, with snow moving into western CO Saturday and moves snow across most of CO Saturday night through Monday morning. This system could be similar to this weekends system if models are correct this far out. Then another system is on track the following week from Tuesday into Thursday. If models are correct, we could go a long ways towards catching up with our seasonal snowfall. Snow could pile up quickly.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Quick update before I head down to teach a class this morning. Overnight, mountains saw 2-6 inches and areas on the north and east side of the Metro area saw 1-5 inches with up to 8 inches in the Boulder Co foothills. Pretty dry around us, but that will change this afternoon. Models have remained consistent overnight bringing heavy snow to the foothills, Urban Corridor and plains this afternoon into Sunday morning, then the snow shifts back to the west. As this happens, foothills should continue to receive moderate to heavy snow through Sunday night, so snow totals from yesterday still look good to me. Winter Storm Warnings cover most of the state st this point. Once the snow moves in this afternoon, travel becomes very difficult to impossible through Sunday night. Models have snow ending east of the Divide Monday morning, but continiue snow into Tuesday west of the Divide, especially Southwest mountains. Stay safe this weekend and enjoy what nature provides, as we need the moisture. I will provide a more detailed update this afternoon.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Thankfully, models have been consistent the past 24 hours, so it appears the pattern is emerging for the weekend. First impulse from upper trough moving into the Great Basin will move over CO this afternoon and evening. Precip will start in the northern and central mountains shortly after noon and spread east into the foothills and plains this afternoon and evening. Snow level begins 7000-8000 ft, but lowers to 6000 ft by 5 pm, then down to plains level by 8 pm. The first impulse will move east of CO by midnight, so most areas will see a lull in precip from midnight through about noon on Saturday. The exception will be the mountains where light snow will continue overnight. Next impulse which is stronger, will enhance snow across eastern CO Saturday afternoon and moderate to heavy snow will persist over eastern CO through Sunday afternoon. Light to moderate snow will persist in the mountains as well during this period. By Sunday evening, heaviest snow begins to move back west over the mountains with snow persisting statewide into Monday morning. Snow will end east of the Divide later Monday morning, but persists west of the Divide through Tuesday afternoon, especially over the southwest mountains. So you know it will snow most of the weekend, now for the tricky part, how much? I believe for the foothills, we will see 1-3 inches from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, then 6-14 inches will be possible from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening, then 1-3 inches from Sunday evening through Monday morning. For storm totals from Friday through Tuesday, here are my best guesses:

Mountains: 16-30 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 8-20 inches
Banana Belt: 4-12 inches
Urban Corridor: 6-14 inches
Plains: 6-14 inches

Lowest amounts will be over the northeast plains where only 4-8 inches will be possible. Highest amounts over the mountains and favored foothill locations, although winds during this system will be from the southeast versus northeast at times, so favored locations may shift some due to change in wind direction.

In general, this will be a long duration and significant snow event for most of CO. Driving will be difficult to impossible at times, so expect delays and possible closures of major roads, Plows will have a tough time keeping up, so if you don't have to be out driving, best to stay hunkered down close to home this weekend. Roads likely to still be snow and ice packed Monday morning, so expect a slower commute, but they should in general be in decent shape.

Looking ahead, eastern CO will get a break Monday through Wednesday next week, then next system moves into CO Wednesday night into Friday morning, with several more inches of snow possible for much of CO. Next system will be fast on the tail with snow moving into western CO Saturday and spreading into eastern Co Sunday, while another potent system should follow up early the following week. Thus, expect some extended winter conditions for the next 7-10 days.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 2/21 update

Bump for 2/21 update

Storm has been a bit of a flop at my house maybe I will wake up to a wonderful foot in the morning.

The dogs so want a deep snow to bounce around in.

Bump for 2/22 update