wxgeek's weather-Some Snow Tuesday, Then Dry and Mild

Update Tuesday March 3
Cold front has pushed south through eastern CO this morning, ushering in colder temps and low clouds and fog into the foothills. High temps for the day have already been reached as temps will lower through the day. Some light snow will develop behind cold front this morning, but main event for snow will come later this afternoon through tonight. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Metro Area, Palmer Divide and foothills from 2 pm today through 5 am Wednesday for 4-10 inches of snow. Looking at latest model output and forecast soundings, upslope flow will remain fairly shallow, up to about 8000-9000 ft with westerly winds at higher altitudes. Moisture extends higher up, but believe this scenario will limit heavy snowfall in the foothills, with higher amounts possible for the Palmer Divide. The forecast looks to evolve like this:

Snow will persist in the mountains this morning into Wednesday with blowing snow due to strong westerly winds causing travel to be difficult. Snow will move south into the foothills, Urban Corridor and Palmer Divide this afternoon, with some moderate snowfall possible this evening and tonight. Snow will begin to diminish by Wednesday morning and will end by about Noon on Wednesday. Cold temps and breezy conditions will persist into Wednesday evening/night with some blowing and drifting of snow possible in prone areas. The commute home today could become slick especially for later evening hours. Commute Wednesday morning will definitely be slick and slower than usual with lots of snow and ice packed roads. For snow amounts from this morning through Wednsday at Noon, looks like this:

Mountains: 6-14 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 3-7 inches
Banana Belt: 1-4 inches
Urban Corridor: 2-5 inches
Plains: 1-4 inches

From Thursday on, model continue to build upper ridge over the western U.S. which will keep CO dry and temps will be at or above seasonal norms through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Next precip chances look to come late next week into next weekend as upper trough is forecast to replace upper ridge along the west coast and bring Pacific moisture into CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Posted Monday March 2:
Upper level low currently over southern CA and ahead of this moderate to heavy precip extends across porttions of AZ, UT and western CO. Good plume of sub-tropical moisture feeding this system as well. Heavy precip is expected to slowly move east today into western CO, AZ and NM. For western CO, snow level will be near 8000 ft today, lowering to 6000 ft tonight. Very heavy snow expected along and west of the Divide today into tonight with snow moveing east to the Front Range Crest thsi evening. Very difficult to impossible to travel across western CO today into tonight as 1-3 feet of snow expected over the next 48 hours. Eastern CO will see warmer temps today as we are in the warm air ahead of this system with Pacific origins, so temps likely to be near or above seasonal norms today east of the Divide. Snow will begin to diminish west of the Divide after midnight.

Next system will begin to impact CO on Tuesday. Latest models have slowed this system a bit and keep it slightly farther west. Thus, snow will move into western CO Tuesday morning but remain along and west of the Divide through about Noon on Tuesday. This is a colder system so snow level down to plains level. Snow will begin to move into eastern CO by Tuesday afternoon and will become moderate at times Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Snow looks to diminsih Wednesday morning and will end by Noon on Wednesday. System is not as impressive as it looked last week, so snow amounts for eastern CO will be decent, but not overly impressive. Here are snow amounts from today through Wednesday:

Mountains: 12-30 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 2-6 inches
Banana Belt: 1-3 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-3 inches
Plains: 1/2 to 2 inches

Temps will be cold on Wednasday, with some gusty northwest winds possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, which could cause some blowing and drifting snow issues in prone areas.

On Thursday, we will begin an extended dry and mild period as an upper ridge moves back over the Inter-Mountain West. Temps should climb back above seasonal norms and CO will remain dry from Thursday through at least the middle of next week. Medium range models begin to bring precip chances back into CO by late next week into next weekend, but the coming weekend promises to be dry and mild statewide.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".