wxgeek's weather-Dry and Mild Early, Precip Chance Late This Wk-Update 3/11

Another warm and mostly sunny day statewide, although high clouds beginning to move into western CO ahead of incoming upper trough. Temps running 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms most areas with upper 60's and low 70's already evident on the eastern plains.

Clouds will continue to increase across CO this evening and tonight. Precip chances will increase along and west of the Divide during the day on Thursday with snow level in the 8000-9000 ft range. Precip will move east to about the I-25 corridor by late Thursday afternoon and evening, with snow level remaining near about 8000 ft. Precip continues Thursday night into Friday morning with snow level lowering to 6000-7000 ft overnight. Best chances for foothill areas to see accumulating snow will be Thursday night into Friday morning. Precip gradually moves south during the day on Friday with best chances back over the mountains Friday afternoon south of I-70. For snow amounts, looks like mountains areas could see 2-6 inches of snow above 8000 ft with highest amounts across the southwest and central mountains. For the foothills and Palmer Divide, latest model guidance suggest slightly higher snow amounts possible, so will now go with 1-4 inches possible above 7000 ft, with highest amounts at higher elevations above 8000 ft. Snow chances decrease after noon on Friday in the foothills. With heavier snow possible Thursday night, roads at higher elevations could be slick Friday morning, mostly above 7000-8000 ft. Lower elevation roads should remain wet.

For the weekend, upper trough moves east and upper ridge moves back over CO, promising plenty of sunshine with temps back above seasonal norms, with Sunday being the warmest day. Monday and Tuesday now look mostly sunny as well with temps remaining above seasonal norms.

Models throwing a lot of different possible solutions around for mid to late next week. the general consensus is precipitation will be possible from next Wednesday into next Saturday. The details of how much, where and the snow level are far from determined. Latest runs today again bring copious amounts of precipitation across much of CO next week, but they keep the snow level much higher for much of the event with snow level in the 9000 - 10,000 ft range through Thursday evening, then lower to 7000-8000 ft Friday and down to plains level Friday night into Saturday. Models still showing 1-3 inches of liquid water during this event for much of CO, so the potential for either heavy rain or snow continues to exist. I suspect models will continue to offer a wide range of solutions through the weekend, so I will continue to monitor and advise, as this could become a significant event for much of CO next week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Another beautiful day across the state with mostly sunny skies and temps 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. We should see an even warmer day under mostly sunny skies statewide on Wednesday, with temps rising into the low 70's across portions of eastern CO.

Western Co will begin to see a change on Thursday as a weak upper level trough moves into the Great Basin. precip chances will increase along and west of the Divide on Thursday, with eastern CO remaining dry with temps still well above seasonal norms. Snow level expected in the 8000-9000 ft range Thursday. Upper trough will slowly move east, which will spread precip chances into eastern CO Thursday night, mostly west if I-25. Snow level lowers to 6000-7000 ft Thursday night. On Friday, better precip chances statewide as upper trough moves over CO. Snow level in the 7000-8000 ft range during the day with some isolated convective showers possible. Best precip chances remain across the mountains, but expect the foothills to see some measurable precip on Friday. Precip chances diminish east of I-25. For snow amounts, mountain areas could see 2-5 inches Thursday into Friday, with highest amounts across the southwest and central mountains. For the foothills, most areas likely not to see much more than a trace, with some areas possibly seeing up to 2 inches. NAM models suggests higher amounts are possible, but believe it is latching onto convective potential. However, areas underneath convective showers could see locally higher snow amounts. Precip should come to an end Friday night statewide.

By Saturday, upper ridge moves back over CO so mostly sunny skies with temps back above seasonal norms by Saturday afternoon. Sunday also looks mostly sunny with even warmer temps, again temps in the low 70's possible across lower elevations of eastern CO.

For next week, Monday looks mostly dry with temps above seasonal norms. Cold front is expected to clip eastern CO Monday night which may usher in cooler temps and some low clouds as well as light precip chances from the foothills eastward with snow level in the 6000-7000 ft range. Conditions improve Tuesday with a few lingering showers possible mostly across higher terrain.

Models then begin to suggest a rather interesting pattern for mid to late next week. Upper trough is expected to move from the northern Rockies into the Great Basin next Wednesday through Sunday. Models have latched onto this system importing a fair amount of moisture which seems odd give the trajectory, but indicate a possible tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture feeding into this system. Models then bring copious amounts of precip into western CO late Wednesday, then persist moderate to heavy precip statewide Thursday into Sunday morning. I am still a bit skeptical about this scenario actually playing out, but if it did, it could provide close to our monthly average snowfall for the month. Snow level indicated by models would be down to plains level for eastern CO, and up to 7000-8000 ft west of the Divide. Current models indicate 1-3 inches of liquid equivalent would be possible with this system. However, given the time of year I fully expect the forecast to change for this system. Time will tell.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 3/11 update