wxgeek's weather-Dry/Warm then Cooler w/ Precip later this wk Update 4/2-pm

Most precip has remained near the WY border as southerly winds persist, although some thunderstorms have developed northeast of Denver past hour. Models indicate mid level circulation will move south of the Metro area later this afternoon and evening, which will promote better northeast upslope flow across northeast CO, thus best precip chances will be from 4 pm through midnight. Snow level will lower to plains level between 5 pm and 8 pm this evening, although with warm temps this week, initial snow at lower elevations likely to melt on pavement. Snow amounts still looking lower as most precip stays north of I-70. Still could be some slick roads at higher elevations this evening and tonight, but clearing conditions with plenty of sun Friday will melt most snow that dopes fall today.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Quick update on the snow for today. Latest models have back off snow amounts in general, and keep most of the snow north of I-70. Snow is beginning to fill in from north to south, with heaviest snow expected between 3 pm and midnight tonight. Snow level currently around 8500 ft, but is expected to lower to near plains level by this evening. Snow amounts now look like this:

Mountains and foothills above 8000 ft: 2-6 inches
Foothills below 8000 ft: 1-4 inches
Urban Corridor and plains: trace to 3 inches

Snow should diminish after midnight and end by Friday morning. Roads likely to remain just wet into this evening, but could become slush and snow packed this evening into tonight, especially above 8000 ft.

Friday through next Monday looking dry and mild statewide, with temps back above seasonal norms. More precip will be possible next week Wednesday into next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Last warm day today before winter makes a brief return. Temps will run 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms today before a cold front moves across the state. Showers will develop along front and a few isolated thunderstorms may pop up. Snow level will remain above 10,000 ft today. Temps will cool after cold front passes, but latest models continue the trend of drying precip overnight.

As upper level trough moves over CO Thursday, associated surface low will form over southeast CO which will aid in upslope northeast flow east of the Divide. Precip will increase in coverage and intensity through the day on Thursday. Snow level will begin Thursday morning around 7000-8000 ft and lower to near plains level by late Thursday afternoon and evening. Snow may become moderate to heavy Thursday afternoon and evening. Impacts will be roads likely to be mostly wet early Thursday, but change over to slush and snow by Thursday afternoon and evening, especially above 8000 ft. For the all important snow amounts, models today have lessened liquid equivalent a bit, but amounts still expected to be in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range. Snow amounts below 6000 will be tough, as much of initial snow will melt, but believe Urban Corridor will see accumulating snow by Thursday late afternoon and evening. Snow will diminish after midnight Thursday night but light snow could persist into Friday morning, thus roads likely to be slick Friday morning. Snow should end by noon on Friday with gradual clearing Friday afternoon.

Snow amounts:

Mountains east of the Divide and foothills above 8000 ft: 3-8 inches
Foothills below 8000 ft: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor and plains: 1-4 inches

Weekend still looking very nice with temps returning to above seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies. Some breezy westerly winds possible Sunday afternoon.

For next week, weak system will bring a chance of precip to western CO Monday with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Tuesday looks dry and mild statewide. Next system arrives Wednesday into Thursday. Precip moves into CO Wednesday with snow level around 8000 ft. Precip continues Wednesday night into Thursday night with snow level lowering to 6000 ft with moderate to heavy precip at times. Several inches of snow will be possible for the mountains and foothills. Precip turns showery Friday and mostly over higher terrain. Next weekend into the following Monday looks quite wet as well with a fairly significant system possible.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Beautiful day across the state with near record temps. Models in remarkably good agreement on system later this week, which always concerns me. Models suggest gusty westerly winds will develop tonight into Wednesday morning creating elevated fire danger for foothills and adjacent plains. Cold front will move through CO from west to east Wednesday afternoon, and showers will develop along front as it moves through. Marginal instability, but a few isolated thunderstorms could pop up as front moves through as well. Best chances for precip will be north of I-70 into Wednesday evening. Snow level will remain above 10,000 ft. Latest models now suggest precip chances will diminish Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with only a few isolated showers. Snow level will lower to 7000-8000 ft Thursday morning. Bulk of precip will occur as upper trough moves across CO and creates good upslope flow across northeast CO during the day Thursday into Friday morning. Snow level expected to gradually lower Thursday down to about 6000 ft by Thursday evening. Snow level lowers down to plains level after sunset Thursday evening with snow persisting into Friday morning, ending by 9 am to noon. Models continue to suggest liquid equivalents of 0.5 to 1.0 inches, which translates to 4-10 inches of snow at higher elevations. Much of the initial snow will melt on all but grassy surfaces, so I don't think roads will get slick until Thursday evening, but with lots of water underneath, roads could be come very slick after sunset Thursday into Friday morning, especially above 8000 ft. For snow amounts, here is what I am currently thinking:

Mountains from Divide East: 3-7 inches
Foothills above 8000 ft: 4-10 inches
Foothills below 8000 ft: 2-6 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-4 inches
Plains: Trace to 3 inches

this system will provide lots of needed moisture to eastern CO, regardless of snow amounts. Conditions will clear by Friday afternoon but temps will remain below seasonal norms Friday.

Weekend looks gorgeous, lots of sun and temps returning to near normal values Saturday, and above normal values Sunday.

For next week, models have changed their tune. In general, models suggest much better precip chances for the first half of April, so will hope they are correct. Early next week still looks dry and mild, but latest models forecast a system to bring more precip to CO Wednesday into Thursday. Then a return to dry and mild next Friday, but a more significant system looks for next weekend. Hopefully the latest wet trend in models continues and becomes reality.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 4/1 update

Bump for 4/2 update

Bump for 4/2 pm update