wxgeek's weather-Dry/Mild, Then More Precip Chances-Update 4/8

Clouds beginning to filter across CO today as upper level trough to our north impacts our weather. Showers have developed along and west of the Divide as well as across the northeast plains this afternoon. As cold front moves across CO showers will develop along front, which will pass through the foothills this evening. Snow level will remain above 10,000 ft this afternoon and evening, then lower to about 6000 ft overnight, although only precip expected overnight will be in the northern mountains. As upper trough passes to our east tonight, strong northerly winds will develop over eastern CO with speeds in the 20-45 mph range and gusts to 60 mph that will persist into Thursday morning. Thursday looks to be mostly dry with temps near seasonal norms. Some isolated showers may develop from the Divide east into the foothills in the afternoon with snow level around 8000 ft.

Upper ridge moves over CO Friday and Saturday which will bring temps above seasonal norms. Isolated afternoon showers may be possible over the mountains each day with snow level above 10,000 ft. Sunday now looks dry with temps remaining above seasonal norms. Latets models now bring a weak upper trough from the southwest across southeast CO SUnday night into Monday. Best chances for precip will be south of I-70 during the day on Monday, with snow level remainign above 10,000 ft. Some moderate to heavy precip may be possible across portions of southeast CO Monday with a few lingering showers from the foothills east Monday night.

For the remainder of next week, models beginning to gain some clarity. Latest models move a large and deep upper level trough/low into the Great Basin on Tuesday, and then into the northern Rockies Wednesday into Friday. As most of the energy with this system will remain to our north, only limited precip expected across CO, but temps should be below seasonal norms Wednesday through Friday. Best precip chances look to be over western CO Wednesday and Thursday, with some precip chances for eastern CO on Friday. Snow levels will generally be below 6000 ft Wednesday through Friday. Next weekend is currently looking dry with temps back above seasonal norms. This will be a significant Spring system for the northern Rockies.

Models suggest more precip chances will be possible the following week as an upper level trough is forecast to take a better track to our south, but we will see if that actually evolves.

Elsewhere, lots of severe weather today from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Severe weather chances will be good again tomorrow over the Mississippi Valley and Midwest. New England continues to get more snow.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Stratus pushed onto the plains and up against the foothills this morning with stratus deck up to about 7000-7500 ft. Stratus will mix out this afternoon while higher elevations will remain dry and warm. Red Flag Warning covers much of CO again today, including the foothills of Jefferson and Park Counties. Temps will remain above seasonal norms today with gusty southwest winds across the mountains and foothills, with southeast winds across the plains and Urban Corridor. Repeat of stratus again tonight that will push into the foothills, so some foggy conditions below about 8000 ft expected into Wednesday morning.

Models remain consistent in bringing upper trough over the Great Basin to the north of CO Wednesday evening. Cold front will move across Co Wednesday afternoon and showers will develop along front. Best precip chances remain north of I-70 with snow level 6000-7000 ft west of the Divide and 9000-10,000 east of the Divide Wednesday afternoon and evening. Snow level drops to 5000 ft overnight, but precip is only expected close to the WY border. Slight chance for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon over the northern mountains and far northeast plains.

On Thursday, mostly sunny skies will return with temps near seasonal norms. Slight chance for showers over the High Country. Friday and Saturday will feature temps back above seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies statewide.

Latest models have washed out the system for Sunday, with only a slight chance for some showers over the mountains Sunday afternoon.

For next week, models still trying to figure out what will happen. Complex system is forecast by GFS and ECMWF as upper trough develops across much of the western U.S. It will depend on how far east this system extends on what weather will take place across CO. Looks likely early next week will remain dry and warm. The Wednesday through next weekend period is still in question, as some precip may be possible. The system may cut off from the main flow, which will make it even more difficult to forecast. So stay tuned for future details. If the system remains farther west, CO will remain mostly dry and mild, if it sets up farther east, we could see much better precip chances. It is expected to hang around through next weekend at least. If the system remains farther west, it will eventually kick out to the east, so CO could receive precip in that scenario as well, just later.

So far this April, I have recorded 2 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain. Our average for April is 32 inches, so unless something exciting happens, it is looking doubtful we will receive our average snowfall in April. That would make a season in which only 1 month during the season had above average snowfall, and that was February. Our record low snowfall occurred in 2005-2006 when only 99 inches was recorded on Conifer Mountain, and second lowest season was 2001-2002 when 102 inches was recorded. With 99 inches recorded this year, we could be on pace for a top 5 spot in least snowy seasons. Third place is 120 inches in 2010-2011 and fourth place is 140 inches in 2000-2001. Looking at snowpack data across the western U.S. much of the West has received less than 50% of average snowfall, so it is shaping up to have the potential for a very difficult fire season across the western third of the country. I am hoping agencies and residents do all they can to limit man made fire starts this season.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Dry, warm and breezy day across the state. Temps running 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms, and RH values less than 15% most areas. This has caused much of CO to be under a Red Flag Warning today. Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist into Tuesday, with temps slightly cooler but still well above seasonal norms. Back door cold front may bring cooler temps and some stratus to the northeast plains tonight into Tuesday morning, but not expected to make it west to the I-25 corridor. Tuesday will still have warm temps, low RH values and gusty westerly winds for the foothills so fire danger will remain elevated.

Models coming into decent agreement on our system for later in the week. All the investment the NWS made in their models seems to be paying off, as the ECMWF has followed suit with the GFS this time. Upper level low currently off the Oregon coast will move over northern CA Tuesaday, then into the Great Basin Wednesday and slide into the Great Plains Thursday. Most of the energy will remain north of CO, so precip chances not great with this system. Looks like cold front will move from west to east across CO Wednesday afternoon, so some showers likely to develop along the front with snow level around 10,000 ft. Majority of precip will remain north of I-70, with a few showers possible south to the Palmer Divide. Snow level drops to 5000 ft Wednesday night, but only precip looks to be along the CO/WY border. Thursday looks mostly dry with a few isolated showers possible mostly over the mountains with snow level around 8000 ft. Temps will be at or slightly below seasonal norms Thursday.

Friday and Saturday look dry statewide with temps rising back above seasonal norms.

Models not quite sure about Sunday and Monday. Latest runs today bring a more powerful system into the northern Rockies and Great Plains, which would bring some precip chances to CO Sunday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Too early to get a more refined forecast at this time, but models should reveal the pattern better later this week. Could be some very strong surface winds with this system across CO Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon as well. The remainder of next week looks mostly dry with temps near seasonal norms with a slight chance for showers Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon. Next weekend currently looks dry and warm.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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I hope everyone has been able to enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend. The dry, warm and breezy conditions look to persist into at least Tuesday, and prehaps into Wednesday for eastern CO. Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of south central and southeast CO today, and similar warning may be in effect through Tuesday as warm temps, gusty westerly winds and low RH values will create dangerous fire weather conditions.

Latest models from today have slightly different tracks for our system later this week. GFS is faster and farther north, while the ECMWF is slower and farther south. The GFS solution keeps the upper low across northeast CO while the ECMWF solution brings the upper low across south central CO Thursday. If the GFS solution is correct, only slight chances for precip in the foothills Wednesday night into Thursday, while if the European solution is correct, better chances for precip across much of northeast CO. Will have to wait and see how the models resolve the track before a more accurate forecasts can be made. In either case, temps will drop below seasonal norms Thursday and Friday across eastern CO.

For the coming weekend, Saturday is looking great. Sunday, latest models show a chance for precip moving into western CO Sunday afternoon, with a chance for some light precip for eastern CO Sunday night.

For next week, early in the week looks mostly dry and mild, with precip chances increasing late next week into next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Great weather for the Easter weekend. Lots of sun and temps running 5-15 degrees above seasonal norms today, and 10-20 above Sunday. Only concern for Sunday will be gusty westerly winds that will combine with low RH values to create fire weather concerns. Red Flag Warning will cover much of southern CO Sunday. Upper level trough will move off the Pacific Northwest coast Sunday, then into the Great Basin Wednesday and across CO on Thursday. For Monday and Tuesday, CO will continue to experience dry conditions with gusty southwest winds and low RH values, so believe fire weather concerns will persist into Wednesday across much of eastern CO. Temps will remain above seasonal norms through Wednesday.

Latest models from today track the upper trough across CO Thursday, but primary energy will remain north of I-70. Models suggest precip will move into western CO mostly west of Vail Pass Wednesday afternoon with snow level around 8000 ft. Eastern CO will remain dry with temps above seasonal norms Wednesday with more gusty westerly winds and some high clouds. By Wednesday night, cold front associated with upper trough will move through CO and precip will spread east with snow level lowering to about 7000 ft. Models suggest nearly all precip will remain north of I-70 across eastern CO Wednesday night. On Thursday, foothills will see our best chance for precip, as precip is expected to sag south to about the Palmer Divide with snow level lowering to 6000-7000 ft. Some moderate to heavy precip is expected north of I-70. Precip moves east out of the state Thursday night.

Some lingering showers may develop Friday afternoon across the High Country and foothills with snow level 6000-7000 ft. Temps Thursday and Friday will remain below seaosnal norms statewide.

Next weekend is looking mostly sunny with temps above seasonal norms. Dry and mild conditions look to persist into early the following week, then precip chances will return Wednesday and Thursday, with dry and mild weather returning after that. In general, April is not shaping up to be overly wet at this point, with no major systems forecast through April 20. Not the April weather I was hoping for, as we will likely be discussing more increased fire danger versus snowfall. As we move into May and June, which are traditionally the most severe fire months in the foothills, fire danger will be dependent upon how much precip falls during these months. Last year, we had a very wet April-June period which helped keep fire danger relatively low. In past years when fires have raged, precip has been sparse in the April-June time period. Green up is beginning at lower elevations, now up to about 7000 ft, so that will help as dry winter grasses turn green through May.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Temps remaining at or slightly below seasonal norms today after meager snowfall yesterday. heaviest amounts of 3-7 inches were mostly north of I-70 with generally 1-4 inches in the foothills south of I-70. Conditions will continue to clear through tonight.

Easter weekend is looking beautiful, with plenty of sunshine and temps back above seasonal norms, so a great weekend to be outside if able. Sunday will have warmer temps than Saturday, but some gusty westerly winds may pick up Sunday afternoon and evening.

Pattern for next week shows an upper trough moving from the Gulf of Alaska south along the West Coast early in the week. This will keep conditions dry with temps above seasonal norms across CO as dry and warm southwest flow aloft prevails. This will also allow some gusty southwest winds across the foothills and adjacent plains which will elevate fire danger.

By next Wednesday, upper trough is expected to move from CA east across CO on Thursday. Latest model guidance has the main energy passing to the north of CO, but will see how future models runs portray this. In general, most of CO should expect increased precip chances from late Wednesday into Friday next week. The eventual track of the system will determine whether we see a few showers or a more significant Spring snowstorm. Some showers may be possible next weekend, mostly across the mountains.

Longer range models suggest a similar pattern for the following week, nice early with precip chances later in the week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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