wxgeek's weather-Precip chances for the week ahead-Update 4/23

After a sunny morning, clouds beginning to increase and showers developing. Atmosphere today is a bit more unstable than past days, so I would expect better coverage and stronger storms this afternoon and evening. Storms may become severe across the eastern plains as well. Storm motion will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph today and snow level is expected to remain above 10,000 ft. However, as we saw yesterday, snow level can lower from 500 ft to 2000 ft in convective showers and allow higher elevations to pick up a dusting of snow. Temps should be well above seasonal norms most areas today.

On Friday, upper trough will move across CO which will allow scatterd showers and thunderstorms to develop, but mostly over the mountains and foothills. As storms form, they will move from the west at 10-20 mph and could persist as they move onto the plains. Slightly cooler temps Friday but still above seasonal norms with snow level remaining above 10,000 ft.

Saturday should start out nice with mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase after noon with showers and thunderstorms developing over the mountains and foothills, then spreading east. Models continue to dig an upper trough from the Pacific Nortwhest into the Great Basin Saturday, becoming a closed upper low near the 4 Corners Sunday morning and move across northern NM into west TX by Monday morning. This pattern will keep precip going across much of CO Saturday night with snow level lowering to 8000-9000 ft. Upslope flow looks to develop across eastern CO on Sunday with moderate precip across much of the state and snow level lowering to 7500-8500 ft during the day on Sunday. Precip looks to continue into Monday morning before turning showery during the day on Monday. Snow level could lower to 7000-8000 ft Sunday night into Monday morning before rising during the day on Monday. Models suggest from 0.5 to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent will be possible from Saturday evening through Monday morning across much of CO, with heaviest precip across the mountains and foothills. For areas above 8000 ft, this may translate to 6-16 inches of wet and heavy Spring snow. I would expected most roads to remain mostly wet during the day on Sunday, but grassy areas will acumulate snow, and by Sunday evening and overnight roads could become slick above 8000 ft.

For next week, models build an upper ridge over the Great Basin that will keep CO under a mostly dry and mild regime through about Friday when upper ridge axis moves east of CO. Temps expected to be well above seasonal norms Tuesday through Friday with little if an precip. From Friday afternoon into the following week, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms look to return to CO.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Forecast through Saturday is similar to yesterday, models suggest a dramatic change for Sunday into Monday, more later.

For today, temps warming above seasonal norms, and a chance for afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms from the mountains onto the plains. Storm motion will be from the west at 10-20 mph and storms may approach severe limits across the southeast plains. Snow level around 12,000 ft today.

On Thursday, temps warm even more with temps 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. More chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms from the mountains to the plains, with storm motion from the west southwest at 10-20 mph. Storms not expected to become severe with snow level remaining around 12,000 ft.

On Friday, upper trough from the west coast will move across CO, so this will decrease temps a bit and increase clouds and precip chances. Better chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across much of CO. Storm motion expected to be from the west at 15-25 mph and snow level lowers to around 10,000 ft. Storms could become severe mostly along and east of I-25.

On Saturday, atmosphere across CO expected to remain moist and unsettled, so another round of showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon and evening hours, with snow level around 10,000 ft and storm motion from the west at 10-20 mph.

The big change in the forecast is latest models suggest an upper trough from the northwest will intensify and develop a closed upper low near the 4 Corners region on Sunday, then move into the TX panhandle on Monday. Though faster and not as intense, this track will be similar to last weeks track that dropped 2-3 feet of snow across portions of CO. Models suggest precip will persist across much of CO from Saturday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Snow levels are expected to lower to about 8000 ft by Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Models suggest liquid precip amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches during this period, so higher elevations of the mountains and foothills could in excess of 1 foot of snow through Monday afternoon. Hopefully we will see some refinement of this system later this week.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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CO remains in a somewhat moist northwesterly flow aloft regime today. Temps are finally expected to climb to or slightly above seasonal norms statewide today. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon and evening, mostly from the mountains to the I-25 corridor. A few isolated thunderstorms will also be possible with the snow level around 10,000 ft. Storm motion today will be from the northwest at 20-30 mph.

As an upper level trough develops off the SoCal coast, an upper level ridge will build over CO on Wednesday, so flow aloft becomes more westerly. A general increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Wednesday as mid level moisture remains over the state with activity spreading from the mountains to the plains. Slight chance for storms to approach severe limits on the far southeast plains. Temps should increase a few degrees over Tuesday. Snow level expected to be around 12,000 ft and storm motion should be from the west at 10-20 mph.

By Thursday, upper level trough off the SoCal coast begins to move northeast over AZ. Moisture will increase some across CO and afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity will be similar to Wednesday, with even more activity possible on the eastern plains. Snow level expected to remain near 12,000 ft, and storm motion will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph.

Upper level trough passes over CO on Friday, so it appears this will be the most active shower and thunderstorm day of the week with some isolated severe storms possible from the foothills to the plains, which could produce brief heavy rain and some small to medium sized hail. Snow level expected to be around 10,000 ft with storm motion from the west at 15-25 mph. A secondary upper trough will move over CO on Saturday, so expect another round of moderate shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with snow level around 10,000 ft and storm motion from the west at 10-20 mph. isolated severe storms may be possible across the eastern plains Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as well.

By Sunday, atmosphere will begin to gradually dry out. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, but less than the previous 3 days with activity mostly along the foothills and adjacent plains. Storm motion should be from the northwest at 20-30 mph with snow level 9000-10,000 ft.

For next week, models suggest further drying of the atmosphere as an upper ridge builds over the Rockies and Central Plains through late in the week. Temps should remain above seasonal norms, with only a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms each day, mostly over the mountains. Some gusty westerly winds look possible late next week into next weekend, but mostly dry conditions statewide. The next chance for significant precip looks to be early the following week as an upper trough moves down from the Gulf of Alaska into the Great Basin. Way too early to determine the track of the system, but it deserves watching as models today suggest a good track for an early May snowstorm across CO, but that could and most likely will change.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Not too much change in the forecast from yesterday. Partly cloudy day across much of CO today as system moves east, but Spring sun will bring a chance for showers to the mountains and foothills this afternoon and evening. Snow level looks to be in the 8000-9000 ft range today, but little if any accumulation expected in areas that do receive showers. Temps expected to remain below seasonal norms today. Slightly better chance for showers Tuesday from the mountains to about the I-25 corridor with some isolated thunderstorms possible. Snow level Tuesday will remain above 10,000 ft as temps warm to near seasonal norms. Upper level trough will move from off the Baja coast across the Southwest and eventually CO by Thursday, so in advance some moisture will be advected into CO, thus better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoon/evening with snow level remaining above 10,000 ft. Temps will warm above seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday, although more cloud cover will limit temps from warming too much. As upper trough passes over CO Thursday night, shower and thunderstorm chances will persist overnight into Friday afternoon as snow level drops to 8000-9000 Thursday night. Some areas could receive brief heavy showers from Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon as thunderstorms become more prevalent.

The weekend looks slightly drier and warmer, although afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Saturday seems to have slightly better chances than Sunday, and snow level will remain above 10,000 ft, so overall not a bad weekend, as our pattern becomes more Spring and Summer like with clear mornings followed by increasing clouds and chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Next week begins warm and dry statewide as upper ridge builds over CO. As a Pacific systems approaches from the west, winds will increase Wednesday as showers move into western CO. Cold front passes Wednesday night so temps will cool on Thursday. In general, mostly dry and mild conditions into next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Current snowfall from the mountains to the Urban Corridor will persist into Monday morning, but additional accumulations expected to be on the light side, with 1-4 inches in the mountains, and a trace to 2 inches for the foothills and Urban Corridor, with snow level lowering to 5000 ft overnight. Roads have remained mostly west today, but we could see some slick spots Monday morning as temps lower.

We Should see some clearing Monday morning, but then clouds build with showers possible Monday afternoon and evening across the mountains and foothills with snow level 8000-9000 ft. Showers should dissipate quickly after sunset.

For the remainder of the week, temps should warm back to near seasonal norms or above Tuesday into the weekend. For precip chances, there will be a slight chance for showers Tuesday afternoon and evening from the mountains to the foothills with snow level above 10,000 ft. Precip chance increase Wednesday afternoon and evening from the mountains to the Urban Corridor with isolated thunderstorms possible, and snow level remains above 10,000 ft.

By Thursday, precip chances will increase statewide as an upper level trough will move from of the Baja coast northeast across the Southwest and eventually CO on Friday. This will bring enhanced showers and thunderstorm chances to most of CO from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Snow level will lower to 8000-9000 ft from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning, then rise to above 10,000 ft Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Shower chances will extend into Sunday afternoon as well.

For next week, models indicate an upper ridge will build across the Great Basin into CO which will increase temps above seasonal norms and CO looks to remain mostly dry Monday through next Thursday. Some gusty westerly winds may develop ahead of next system next Wednesday into Thursday. Precip chances return next Thursday afternoon into Friday evening, mostly west of the Divide, then dry and mild for the following weekend.

With our recent snowfall, April snowfall on Conifer Mountains has risen to 29 inches, so just 2 inches shy of our average April snowfall. We now stand at 126.5 inches for the season, and our average through the end of April is 153 inches, so we are near 82% of our average snowfall through April. This last storm has done wonders for our fire danger, at least for the next couple of weeks.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 4/20 update

Bump for 4/21 update

Bump for 4/22 update

Bump for 4/23 update