wxgeek's weather-Weather Outlook April 27 - May 8-Update 5/1

Quick update while I reside in Anchorage, AK for a few days. Good precip chances today through Sunday with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely. Precip amounts highest today with smaller amounts likely over the weekend. Storm motion mostly from the west at 10-20 mph.

Next week, precip chances increase Monday through Wednesday as upper trough moves over CO from the southwest. Could be periods of heavy rainfall at times, which may cause some localized flooding. Models output from 1 to 4 inches of rain from today through next Wednesday, so keep an eye on local streams and stay tuned to NWS flood watches and warnings early next week.

Precip chances will continue late next week as well, but lesser amounts expected. Snow level should remain at or above 12,000 ft most of the time, but could lower to 10,000 ft at times. Models suggest a slight break in precip next weekend.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Beautiful day across the state, nary a cloud in the sky with temps well above seasonal norms. Upper ridge will remain over CO through Friday, so temps will remain above seasonal norms. However, westerly flow aloft will return to CO beginning Thursday afternoon which will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Activity Thursday will be associated with a weak system passing to our north, so activity will mostly be north of I-70, but may persist overnight especially across the northeast plains. Better precip chances for Friday as temps cool slightly due to increased cloud cover. Some showers could be heavy along the foothills and I-25 corridor. Snow level is expected to remain at or above 12,000 ft, although it could lower to 10,000 ft during thunderstorms. Similar pattern expected over the weekend with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, beginning in the mountains and foothills and moving onto the Urban Corridor and plains.

For next week, models remain consistent in moving weak upper level trough from off CA across CO through Wednesday. This will enhance precip chances and amounts from Monday afternoon through Wednesday night across most of CO. Periods of heavy rain will be possible, even through the overnight hours with snow level generally around 12,000 ft, but possibly lowering to 10,000 ft overnight. Localized flooding may be possible early next week as heavy rains combines with snow runoff in the mountains, foothills and Urban Corridor. The remainder of next week a bit uncertain, as another upper trough moves into the Great Basin. Models not quite sure the track this system will take yet. In general, expect more unsettled weather with slightly cooler temps late next week into next weekend.

Longer range models suggest the wet pattern will persist across CO through at least the middle of May. Climate Prediction Center calls for above average precip across CO through May, and suggests wetter than usual conditions may persist into the summer months. This is not too surprising given our delayed El Nino conditions are persisting into the Spring, with the latest ENSO value of +0.7 (weak El Nino). The ENSO forecast models suggest weak to possibly moderate El Nino conditions may persist into Summer and even Fall. If such conditions persist into Fall, this could have implications for an early start to snow season, but way too early to put much stock in that. For now, as long as El Nino conditions persist, expect wetter than normal conditions to accompany that across CO, which is good news for fire conditions.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

After a cool and hazy start, mostly sunny skies across the state today with temps returning to near seasonal normal values. A few isolate showers and thunderstorms will be possible across southwest CO this afternoon. Trend will be for temps to warm from 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms through the weekend. Wednesday looks to be mostly dry statewide as upper ridge builds over CO. By Thursday, a weak system will skirt to our north, but will increase shower and thunderstorm chances for afternoon and evening hours, with best chances over higher terrain and north of I-70. Some showers and thunderstorms may persist overnight across the northeast plains.

For Friday through Sunday, temps remain above seasonal norms statewide, and good chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, so a typical summer pattern. Best chances will be over the mountains and foothills with snow level remaining above 12,000 ft, but small hail and lightning will accompany thunderstorms.

For next Monday through Wednesday, a weak upper trough will move from off the southern CA coast through CO and will increase precip chances across CO. Showers and thunderstorms look to become widespread and may persist during overnight hours. Some heavy rainfall will be possible during this period, especially over mountain areas as well as foothills, which could lead to some localized flooding. Snow level looks to remain above 12,000 ft.

From Thursday into next weekend, models suggest drier conditions although isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mostly over the mountains. Temps look to remain above seasonal norms.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Rather interesting system yesterday. Snowfall amounts up to 2 feet reported in the mountains along and east of the Divide, and over 3 inches of rain reported east of I-25, but the foothills were mostly left out of this system. However, any and all moisture is appreciated at this point. Precip dissipating statewide this afternoon, but moist easterly flow remains across eastern CO, so low clouds and fog in the foothills likely to persist through Tuesday morning. Some showers may develop along and west of the Divide this afternoon.

Skies should clear Tuesday and conditions expected to remain dry and warm through Thursday as upper ridge builds into the Rockies. Temps will be 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, upper ridge axis moves east of CO and will allow westerly flow and enough residual moisture to fire afternoon showers and thunderstorms from the mountains east to about I-25. Snow level looks to remain above 12,000 ft.

For the weekend, models suggest better precip chances for most of CO with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread. Best chances will remain over higher terrain of the mountains and foothills with snow level remaining above 12,000 ft, and temps also remaining above seasonal norms.

For next week, models portray a cooler and wetter pattern across most of CO. A weak upper trough from SoCal will move across CO Monday into Tuesday and provide even better chances for rain, showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Precip could persist during overnight hours, and some moderate to heavy rain will be possible. With soils nearly saturated at this point and snow runoff, heavier precip could cause minor flooding issues early next week. Snow level will mostly remain above 10,000 ft, but could lower to 9000 ft at times overnight. Models then suggest an upper level trough will move down the West Coast and eject across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies late next week. This will keep some precip chances along and west of the Divide from Thursday into Saturday and temps will be closer to seasonal norms. Snow level could lower to 7000-8000 west of the Divide late in the week and next weekend. It appears fire danger will remain at lower levels at least through early May with our recent and forecast moisture.

Snowfall for April on Conifer Mountain now at 33.5 inches, so above average for the month. Seasonal snowfall is now at 131 inches, which is 85% of our average snowfall of 153 inches through the end of April. Our average snowfall in May is 14 inches. Really does not matter if it snows in May, as long as we continue to get precip fire danger will remain at lower levels. Highest fire danger in the foothills is typically from late May through early July, until the North American Monsoon begins. Each season depends on how much precip we get during this period and how much moisture remains in ground fuels.

_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for 4/28 update

bump for 4/29 update

Bump for 5/1 update