El Nino Is Here

We've received some new data on El Nino from our friends at the National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). They have issued an "El Nino Advisory". This means El Nino conditions are active and present. There is a greater than 90% chance of El Nino continuing through the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2015-2016, and a very good chance of it continuing into next Spring.

So, without getting too technical, (I'll do that later as we discuss), here's what this means for us. We can expect "above average" precipitation and "slightly below average" temperatures through September. We don't like to get too far out with climate predictions because the models become very unreliable.

While it's too early to forecast what we'll see this coming Winter, we can rely on climatology to tell us what might happen. El Nino's impacts are generally more pronounced during the Autumn and Winter in Colorado. In the past, we have seen infrequent, but very major, snow events during El Nino Winters. Think back to 2003 when we were in an El Nino status and the Denver area received nearly 3 feet of snow, with much higher amounts in the foothill communities (us).

What we usually see is a very active southern branch of the Jet Stream. Storms track along with the Jet Stream, and during El Nino, the Jet Stream is sometimes pointed directly at southern California, and then on to Colorado. Those of us who have lived here a while know what happens when a strong low pressure system moves through the Four Corners and into northern New Mexico: Big Time Snow. Strong storms tend to tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and splash it against our mountains, dropping copious amounts of snow when conditions are favorable.

The frequency of storms during Colorado El Nino Winters can vary from one or two per month, to one every week. On average, we can expect to see a higher-than-normal amount of snow this Autumn and Winter, if El Nino persists.

During this summer, things have been cooler with more rainfall. This is indicative of El Nino in progress. We've had a few dry and hot weeks, but generally it's been more "wet" than "dry". If we rely on climatology to tell us what's going to happen, this trend will continue into the Autumn and Winter, meaning increased snowfall.

That it, in a nutshell. Now, let's have some Q&A!

- Steve Hamilton

Above average rain and below average temps in September sound good to me. Can't wait to freeze out the flies and skeeters.

This spring and summer have been active in our ground water. Our spring is still running and our side yard still a swamp. They usually stop by mid June. Time for folks to think about what it takes to get through a tough winter up here - generator and good snow removal tools.

Totally agree, our hayfield is still very marshy for this time of year. Worried our equipment will bog down when we mow. Irony, the hay itself is very high, should be a bumper crop.