The Left-Right Expertise Gap: Considering the Data

16 Jun 2011 22:30 #11 by Rockdoc
Somehow increased use of fossil fuel fuel to power electric cars gets lost in the shuffle as if electric cars were really going to be a major step away from oil or coal consumption. BS. Let's be real here.

THe climate change issue is too political and too many scientists have sold out their integrity. Man made and the fallacy that man will actually influence climate change is where I part company with the herd. The whole notion that man might be able to do something to stop climate change provides false hope and creates gridlock. Imagine how much action and decisive direction (not to mention new jobs) would occur if we accept that climate change is inevitable, calculate how much sea level will rise and then focus our attention on insuring our infrastructure in coastal areas finds viable alternatives. This is what our politicians ought to be addressing and leaving the science to cool and calculating scientists devoid of emotional hyperbole..

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18 Jun 2011 21:56 #12 by ScienceChic
RD, I've talked before about the issue of still needing fossil fuels at the power plant (trying not to make my posts horrendously long by covering everything comprehensively every time). No, we cannot go cold-turkey switching from fossil fuels to renewables, but the point is that we aren't even really making an attempt yet, and we need to be. Removing the fossil fuel use and emissions at the vehicle stage will help tremendously, especially if carbon capture and storage can be implemented at the power plant. But CCS is going to make the energy production more expensive, and won't do as good of a job as just leaving the coal, oil, and natural gas sequestered in the ground in the first place. And none of that will matter a hill of beans if we don't simultaneously reduce other greenhouse gas forming activities, and halt deforestation around the world.

There's no getting around climate change being political. It is an industry that generates too much profit for vested interests to just give it up without a fight, and if scientists who produce the data proving the harm don't speak up, then who will? Environmental groups? They are derided now for being biased, and not listened to by the public (and only listened to by politicians that they pay, creating another reason for their message to be regarded with scorn). I'm curious as to who exactly you think has sold out their integrity? Absolutely no accusations of misconduct leveled against any climate scientists have been found to be true, all the data produced over the last 40 years has merely added to and strengthened the case for AGW, so where do you see an integrity problem?

Yes, the notion that we can do something about it is sugar-coated at best; but, no one wants to hear, or contemplate, how bad it's really going to get if we continue business-as-usual. Many social experiments have proven over and over how we humans suck at dealing with problems that are amorphous, and far-off in consequence. Add to that the huge lack of understanding of even basic science by the general population, the Right's attack on science since the mid-70s, the vast amounts of money being thrown at politicians and media outlets by special interests, and lessening quality of journalism in covering science topics, and you've got a recipe for disaster. But it's not false hope, or gridlock, to try to do something, and doing something will help if we get serious about it soon enough. Just accepting that climate change is inevitable, that there will be sea level rise, and try to start adapting to it is being reactive, not proactive, and it will not be enough. But don't take my word for it - start reading the IPCC report (unfortunately, the new one isn't due until 2013 and the 2007 is already out-of-date, but still chock full of good basics), or several scientists books on the subject.

What's the Worst That Could Happen?: A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate by Greg Craven
Global Warming: The Complete Briefing by John Houghton
CO2 Rising: The World's Greatest Environmental Challenge by Tyler Volk
The Global Carbon Cycle (Princeton Primers in Climate) by David Archer
Ice, Mud and Blood by Chris Turney
The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate by David Archer
The Great Ocean Conveyor: Discovering the Trigger for Abrupt Climate Change by Wally Broecker
Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat--and How to Counter It by Wallace S. Broecker, and Robert Kunzig
Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity by James Hansen
The Big Picture: Reflections on Science, Humanity, and a Quickly Changing Planet by David Suzuki, David Taylor
Natural Climate Variability and Global Warming: A Holocene Perspective by Richard W. Battarbee
Global Warming: The Complete Briefing by John Theodore Houghton
Why We Disagree About Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity by Mike Hulme
The Warming Papers by David Archer (Editor), Ray Pierrehumbert (Editor)
The End of Nature by Bill McKibben
The Discovery of Global Warming (New Histories of Science, Technology, and Medicine) by Spencer R. Weart
Lies, Damned Lies, and Science: How to Sort through the Noise around Global Warming, the Latest Health Claims, and Other Scientific Controversies by Sherry Seethaler

Climate Change Science and Policy by Stephen H. Schneider (Editor), Armin Rosencranz (Editor), Michael D. Mastrandrea (Editor), Kristin Kuntz-Duriseti (Editor)
Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air by David J.C. MacKay
Climate Savvy: Adapting Conservation and Resource Management to a Changing World by Lara J. Hansen
Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto by Stewart Brand
Down to the Wire : Confronting Climate Collapse by David W. Orr
The Economics and Politics of Climate Change by Dieter Helm , Cameron Hepburn
An Introduction to Climate Change Economics and Policy by Felix R. FitzRoy , Elissaios Papyrakis
Strategies for the Green Economy : Opportunities and Challenges in the New World of Business by Cara Pike
Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization by Lester R. Brown

Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things by Michael Braungart
Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future by Bill McKibben
Fight Global Warming Now: The Handbook for Taking Action in Your Community by Bill McKibben
The Sacred Balance: Rediscovering Our Place in Nature by David Suzuki (Author), Amanda McConnell (Contributor), Adrienne Mason (Contributor)
Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet by Bill McKibben
Hack the Planet: Science's Best Hope - or Worst Nightmare - for Averting Climate Catastrophe by Eli Kintisch
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed: Revised Edition by Jared Diamond

"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

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19 Jun 2011 08:21 - 19 Jun 2011 12:12 #13 by Rockdoc
SC I do not think I mentioned anything about integrity of late. No matter what scientific field you examine there is always someone who lacks integrity. I've seen this in my own field much to my surprise. Unlike MB, I do not consider all science lacking integrity. This is why I pondered if the Sl data by the CU group compared well with that obtained from space.

While global warming is now a political football, the inevitable consequence is that much information on the topic will be poorly presented. Some people do not get it, but the words of a scientist generally are very carefully chosen for a good reason. Those words generally allow for elements of uncertainty about an interpretation. Politician paraphrasing with its bent on hyperbole and emotion rather than critical thought are what will continue to get science in trouble. What I see in general is that there is too much emphasis put on climatologists results and not enough integrated science. Climate change investigations are not solely in the realm of climatologists, but sedimentologists and astrophysicists as well. Much disagreement about interpretations exist because they look at different data sets and different time spans. Integrated studies would benefit the topic enormously.

Unfortunately, science is going to suffer considerably as long as it remains tied to politics. It's going to be hard to undo the damage until the sea encroaches on coastal cities. Even then, some will argue it is continental subsidence rather than eustacy. But whether it is actually subsidence, rising sea level due to glacial melt, or a combination of the the two will be totally irrelevant. The only thing that will matter is that urbanites will need to switch to boats from cars and live on their second floor. The way it will happen is much like watching your kids grow, suddenly they are as tall as you, but you never noticed them getting there even though infrequent family visitors will comment on how tall Johnny is getting. Encroaching seas will creep up on all as well until suddenly the reality of the situation is undeniable and action no longer can be delayed.

We do not necessarily disagree on most issues. We may only differ on how we might approach them. Electric cars are not the future unless we can stream solar electricity down from space and thereby eliminate fossil fuel. Personally, I think we may find our personal vehicles energized in the distant future by some from of ultra safe atomic energy.

edited to add; Sorry SC. I was in the wrong thread in my mind when I responded. I sure did say something about lack of integrity.

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19 Jun 2011 11:48 - 19 Jun 2011 11:54 #14 by major bean
The expertise gap between left and right comes from the total lack of integrity of the left. They are not truthful in the least regarding data. Remember how the emails revealed how global warming was going to be confirmed by falsifying data?

Regards,
Major Bean

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19 Jun 2011 11:51 #15 by major bean
U.S. News & World Report

Global Warming E-Mails Scandal Show Scientists May Have Cooked the Facts
It is starting to look like President Barack Obama, aided and abetted by former Vice President Al Gore, Sens. Barbara Boxer, and John F. Kerry and others, may have lied this nation into a war against man-made global warming.

Preliminary analysis of the contents of thousands of E-mails and documents taken from the computer archives of the Climate Research Unit at England's University of East Anglia—possibly by a hacker, possibly by a whistleblower—indicate a number of the world's most important scientists engaged in research designed to prove that global warming really does exist may have been cooking the books.

As columnist Michael Barone wrote in Sunday's Washington Examiner, "The CRU has been a major source of data on global temperatures, relied on by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But the e-mails suggest that CRU scientists have been suppressing and misstating data and working to prevent the publication of conflicting views in peer-reviewed science periodicals."

If true, the cooking of the temperature data to provide support for the idea that man-made global warming is occurring is a scandal of most serious proportions. It should force policymakers to reconsider the role science plays in the formulation of policy if its conclusions can be manipulated the way those concerning climate change now appear to have been.

Some of those involved in the E-mail chains that are now under examination have concocted what on their face come across as bizarre explanations for some of the things they said, many of which boil down to the notion that the words they used did not mean what they mean. It sort of takes us back to what the meaning of "is" is.

They have been engaged in a political war, using science as a weapon. The E-mails reveal the dangers inherent in relying on "approved science" as the last word on anything, especially if—as it now appears—some of the more influential supporters of the idea of global warming tried very hard to make sure that contrary theories and evidence that countered their assumptions and projections were never allowed to see the light of day, at least in any reputable scientific journal.


the link: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2009/11/30/global-warming-e-mails-scandal-show-scientists-may-have-cooked-the-facts

Regards,
Major Bean

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19 Jun 2011 12:01 #16 by major bean
A sampling of the emails which appeared in The Telegraph

Manipulation of evidence:

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.

Private doubts about whether the world really is heating up:

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.

Suppression of evidence:

Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4?

Keith will do likewise. He’s not in at the moment – minor family crisis.

Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t have his new email address.

We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.

Fantasies of violence against prominent Climate Sceptic scientists:

Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I’ll be tempted to beat
the crap out of him. Very tempted.

Attempts to disguise the inconvenient truth of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP):

……Phil and I have recently submitted a paper using about a dozen NH records that fit this category, and many of which are available nearly 2K back–I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2K, rather than the usual 1K, addresses a good earlier point that Peck made w/ regard to the memo, that it would be nice to try to “contain” the putative “MWP”, even if we don’t yet have a hemispheric mean reconstruction available that far back….

And, perhaps most reprehensibly, a long series of communications discussing how best to squeeze dissenting scientists out of the peer review process. How, in other words, to create a scientific climate in which anyone who disagrees with AGW can be written off as a crank, whose views do not have a scrap of authority.


“This was the danger of always criticising the skeptics for not publishing in the “peer-reviewed literature”. Obviously, they found a solution to that–take over a journal! So what do we do about this? I think we have to stop considering “Climate Research” as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal. We would also need to consider what we tell or request of our more reasonable colleagues who currently sit on the editorial board…What do others think?”

“I will be emailing the journal to tell them I’m having nothing more to do with it until they rid themselves of this troublesome editor.”“It results from this journal having a number of editors. The responsible one for this is a well-known skeptic in NZ. He has let a few papers through by Michaels and Gray in the past. I’ve had words with Hans von Storch about this, but got nowhere. Another thing to discuss in Nice !”


Regards,
Major Bean

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19 Jun 2011 12:18 #17 by Rockdoc
Yes, this would fit into what I call dishonest scientists. The omission of data that does not fit their model or altering data to fit the curves are both contemptuous. That said, this example does not condemn or relegate all other scientists to being dishonest. It does compromise their interpretations when the data they have used is not sound. Personally, I'd be pissed to no end if I had to rely on data that someone manufactured and thus was led to erroneous conclusions.

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19 Jun 2011 13:42 #18 by ScienceChic
Every investigation into the emails (all 5 of 'em), and the scientists involved, cleared them of all wrong-doing. Were they guilty of mis-speaking, and poor judgement with their words, absolutely. But there was absolutely no evidence of tampering with scientific data, results, or publications. These emails were taken out of context and blown out of proportion, used by contrarians because they have no valid argument against the weight of the science for AGW itself.

Here's my thread with links to each investigation: <!-- l --><a class="postlink-local" href=" 285bound.com/Forums/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1986&hilit=climategate " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1986&hilit=climategate<!-- l -->

"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

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19 Jun 2011 14:53 #19 by major bean
Amazing!
............and mold it closer to the heart's desire!

Regards,
Major Bean

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