The Fed plays "Twister!"

21 Sep 2011 22:31 #1 by bailey bud
I don't get it --- long-term interest rates are already so low, they don't really compensate for risk (let alone long-term inflation).

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/ ... ot-so-much

Shake it up baby ---- twist and shout........ Come on baby ---- work it on out...........

Incidentally - I don't understand their reverse arbitrage --- sounds like a time bomb to me.

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21 Sep 2011 22:42 #2 by Rockdoc
Replied by Rockdoc on topic The Fed plays "Twister!"
I've got to agree. I think this is all part of the tumbling of America to economic lows it's never seen before. You just can't prop up a dead horse and ask it to start running again. Of course having said that, it may be worth while to see if one can benefit from this move.

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21 Sep 2011 22:50 #3 by bailey bud
Replied by bailey bud on topic The Fed plays "Twister!"
Well --- I benefitted --- I cashed out of the market at the beginning of the week --- and can buy up the same assets I cashed out Tuesday morning --- for about 3 percent less.

I'll sit out until the market goes down a good deal more - then will pick up everything I ditched this week.

(technically, I still have a lot of confidence in the stocks that I was holding - was just getting tired of market volatility).

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21 Sep 2011 22:57 #4 by otisptoadwater
Maybe off topic but how is it that gold has been running at a higher price per ounce than platinum this week? I'm guessing people over investing in gold but I will also admit I don't have a clue about how that market works.

I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.

"Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by letting the Government take care of him; better take a closer look at the American Indian." - Henry Ford

Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges; When the Republic is at its most corrupt the laws are most numerous. - Publius Cornelius Tacitus

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21 Sep 2011 23:06 #5 by chickaree
Replied by chickaree on topic The Fed plays "Twister!"
Gold looks like a bubble to me. You can make money, but your timing better be exquisite. Gold mining stocks are better.

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21 Sep 2011 23:07 #6 by bailey bud
Replied by bailey bud on topic The Fed plays "Twister!"
Gold is too high (in my opinion)

Gold prices are supported by:
- supply
- demand
- confidence in alternative assets

Take a look at this:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/ch ... &CP=0&PT=7

Notice that GLD did about the same as the market for most of the last year --- then shot up (in response to recent political disputes).

Gold would be great if you bought it 6 months ago - but it's over-valued, right now - largely due to fears about the long term viability of the dollar.

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21 Sep 2011 23:31 #7 by pineinthegrass

chickaree wrote: Gold looks like a bubble to me. You can make money, but your timing better be exquisite. Gold mining stocks are better.


Hate to talk about it, but I bought two 1oz Eagle gold coins really cheap (compared to today's prices) years ago.

When I put my house up for sale, I knew I couldn't just leave them in a drawer because someone might see them while viewing the house. So I hid them in some household item.

By the time I sold the house a year later, I forgot where I put them. When I finally moved, I searched every item, but couldn't find them.

Pains me to know they are worth about $3600 today. :angry:

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22 Sep 2011 06:51 #8 by LOL
Replied by LOL on topic The Fed plays "Twister!"
That was you? We bought some cheap item on craigs list, and 2 gold coins fell out of it. LOL Just kidding.

Bernake is just grasping for straws. This low interest unwinding down the road is going to be painful to bonds. Dividend stocks are the only fairly safe investment.

I think gold is too high too, but then I thought that at 1000.

If you want to be, press one. If you want not to be, press 2

Republicans are red, democrats are blue, neither of them, gives a flip about you.

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22 Sep 2011 07:16 #9 by FredHayek
Replied by FredHayek on topic The Fed plays "Twister!"
Actually if the goverment is financing their debt, doesn't it make sense to grab as much long term debt as you can at 1%?

The current practice of constantly rolling over short term loans when inflation is a real threat doesn't make sense. Lock in 20 years at 1% instead of next year possibly having to pay 5% to rollover the debt.

Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.

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22 Sep 2011 08:55 #10 by bailey bud
Replied by bailey bud on topic The Fed plays "Twister!"
The Fed (Federal reserve) manages the supply of money. They're primarily responsible for the integrity of the banking system.

The US Department of Treasury finances government debt.

The two aren't really supposed to meet - although everyone knows they do.......

The long/short swap seems like a time bomb.

How do you re-pay the short term securities when they're due ---- when you've tied up the money in long-term securities?

I'm not really a doomsday person - but the moves being made with our money system look more dramatic each day --- and I think we're running out of stunts to keep the boat floating.

Most of the stunts are designed to keep the cost of money down (I presume to subsidize federal borrowing). It's about time for the fed to say "the rates are artificially low." I know that's painful for the US Department of Treasury --- but that's where we're at. Interest rates at 3.5 percent don't even compensate for risk, adequately.

I'm guessing the USG would like to keep those rates low - in order to sustain their unsustainable borrowing.

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