Firearm Background Check Study

Here's what Daniel Webster writes:

After Missouri repealed its handgun purchaser licensing law in August 2007, which had required
permits for handguns purchased from private individuals as well as from licensed gun dealers, the
share of crime guns recovered by the police with an unusually short time interval from retail sale to
crime – which is indicative of trafficking – more than doubled.3 Preliminary research also suggests
that, after its license law repeal, Missouri’s age-adjusted homicide rate increased by 25% at a time
when national and regional homicide rates were actually declining.

Webster shows up every 4 years (typically during mid-term elections) with quotes galore on guns.

He's decidedly anti-NRA

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/20 ... ra-leaders

His source of data is the CDC's National Vital Statistics report, published by the CDC.

I do wonder why he doesn't cite specifically "homicide by firearm" - which is published by the CDC.

I'm also a little curious about "age-adjusted" rates ----
it could be that some of the variation in the statistic is the product of the age adjustment, rather than the actual phenomenon.

So - I took a look at Missouri's information (I use the FBI's UCR system).

In 2012 - Missouri had 283 murders that involved firearms.
In 2007, that same number was 247 (14 percent increase in the number of incidents)

At the same time, Missouri's population went up about 2 percent - so the "real" increase would be about 12 percent. Looks to me like Dr. Webster didn't figure this figure was dramatic enough ---- so he went for an "age-adjusted" figure - then calculated the percent change in that figure (like a percent change in a percentage).

Lest you think I'm a nay-sayer ---- I can see that gun-related murders went up. And, in fact - the FBI's information shows that handgun-related incidents went up .

However ---- I do feel compelled to note ---- Missouri's homicide rate is more than double Colorado's ---- and we have a more liberal gun law than they do.

At minimum, I think I'd conclude that Dr. Webster prefers more "dramatic" figures - ones that tend to highlight his concerns.

Frankly, I think a little more detailed investigation might reveal that his arguments simply don't hold as much water as he'd like.

and oh....

Past and present funders of the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research include: The Annie E. Casey Foundation, The David Bohnett Foundation, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, The Funders' Collaborative for Gun Violence Prevention, The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, The Joyce Foundation, The Overbrook Foundation, and The Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund.

"Lie, damned lies and statistics..." In general I'd trust John Lott's numbers much more than over-the-top liberals Johns Hopkins. But I'd like to see specific breakdowns of their numbers. They're most likely counting criminal-on-criminal where background checks ("universal" or otherwise) are irrelevant. Many times it is revealed that the statistics for LEOs shooting perps are also included to bolster their agenda.

Oh, yeah! I just read the citations on the article - from the BLOOMBERG School of Public Health. That tells me all I want to know about this "study"!!!

Thanks for the laugh, Dog!

:rofllol :rofllol :rofllol :rofllol :rofllol :rofllol

bailey bud wrote: and oh....

Past and present funders of the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research include: The Annie E. Casey Foundation, The David Bohnett Foundation, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, The Funders' Collaborative for Gun Violence Prevention, The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, The Joyce Foundation, The Overbrook Foundation, and The Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund.

:Megaphone: Round up the usual suspects, right? And add Bloomberg to the list.