Financial "guys" run the figures......

markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/...rowth-mistake-2022-2

and JP MORGAN expects more than a half dozen rate increases by 3/.2023...9 to be exact,
CHECK percentages of possible actions....per El Erian......the two gurus are gunning for "your guess is as good as mine".....in other words, the good times r NOT going to roll, the best bet CYA and watch for signs.

The US has artificially held down interest rates for decades, in order to keep the cost of financing 30 trillion in debt. The Fed will be very resistant to raising interest rates, even raising it by one percentage point will make the debt that much more expensive. And the DNC and the Biden Administration will also be pressuring the Feds to not raise interest rates any more than is absolutely necessary.

FredHayek wrote: The US has artificially held down interest rates for decades, in order to keep the cost of financing 30 trillion in debt. The Fed will be very resistant to raising interest rates, even raising it by one percentage point will make the debt that much more expensive. And the DNC and the Biden Administration will also be pressuring the Feds to not raise interest rates any more than is absolutely necessary.

I agree Fred. The Democrats have a lot of pull with the Fed since they are on the same team. I would expect the rates to stay fairly low at least until the midterms.

Rick wrote:

FredHayek wrote: The US has artificially held down interest rates for decades, in order to keep the cost of financing 30 trillion in debt. The Fed will be very resistant to raising interest rates, even raising it by one percentage point will make the debt that much more expensive. And the DNC and the Biden Administration will also be pressuring the Feds to not raise interest rates any more than is absolutely necessary.

I agree Fred. The Democrats have a lot of pull with the Fed since they are on the same team. I would expect the rates to stay fairly low at least until the midterms.

[/b]

Let's see THAT was 1st Q (bolded)....the last dregs of Q2, REALITY BITES.....u (collectively) were warned..
3/.4 of a basis point,with more to come....rates r nudging 6 and over. We will watch the Feds fight for
"neutral" landing (not going to happen.)

"I agree Fred. The Democrats have a lot of pull with the Fed since they are on the same team. I would expect the rates to stay fairly low at least until the midterms."
Don"t go to Las Vegas and bet your expectations, or worse to the stock market and invest on thse prognostications.
The midterms are less 5 months away. I think that you overlooked the 75 basis point increase today, the largest since 1994.

I admit I was wrong and Powell just hinted that it will be .75 in July too.
Could we see a scenario where the Fed rate raising doesn't stop inflation but does create a recession.
I was chasing range cattle off my property and wondered if ranchers were concerned about increased rustling since rib eyes are now $20 a pound.

ramage wrote: "I agree Fred. The Democrats have a lot of pull with the Fed since they are on the same team. I would expect the rates to stay fairly low at least until the midterms."
Don"t go to Las Vegas and bet your expectations, or worse to the stock market and invest on thse prognostications.
The midterms are less 5 months away. I think that you overlooked the 75 basis point increase today, the largest since 1994.

I didn't ignore the increase because I made that prediction in Feb.. Obviously I was wrong... I didn't think prices would be this high this fast. I'm not afraid to be wrong and will always admit it, unlike some.

"unlike some"....IF that was a reference to me, I have ALWAYS STATED HERE.....If I am wrong,I will say I am wrong. TIME is paramount when posting poss. predictions.

Trump should have been charged with crimes at least 5 times by now if your predictions were accurate.

Sorry Fred, I did not see the date of your post that was referenced. Back in Feb, I, also was of the opinion that the Fed would not increase rates, in that the fed did nothing throughout the Obama Administration and timidly put its toe in the water during the Trump Administration.
Powell wants to prove the relevancy of the Fed in its ability to combat inflation and hold down unemployment. And thereby save his reputation.
I do not think that Slo Joe's financial people are happy with Powell's actions.

Here is a novel idea, have Slo Joe's advisors on Ukraine and foreign policy change places with his advisors on financial matters. .We probably wouldn't know that it had happened.