According to Nate Sillver's polling graph, FLIPR, the dems have to do nothing but garner their Solid, Lean, Likely seats, the toss-ups be damned, in order to control the House.
We'll see in November.
There is some speculation that an anti-hunting referendum in Oregon was killed by Democrat politicians so that Republican voters don't rally against the politicians.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
As far as the national polling on the mid-terms, the polls haven't been accurate enough over the past few elections cycles for me to have much faith in them outside of the "Solid" and "Likely" categories. Once you start getting into the "Leans" and "Tossups" I'm more inclined to think that the numbers are hoped for outcomes rather than an accurate expectation of what will happen.
I mean, I get it, Paxton isn't the greatest look for Republicans, but just 2 short years ago the polls were saying that Cruz was in a neck and neck race and he won with 53% of the vote. Saw the same thing with polls on many of the races in 2024, either Democrats won by smaller than expected margins or Republicans won with greater than expected margins.
And THAT, my friend, is a true statement...going into Q4, people,who have shut down on politics ,will reawaken ...because now the time is near and it's going to get ugly. The Iran issue is NOT going away and people r weary of the war and the promises that have been neglected....translation, MAGA MISSED THE MARK.....IN THIS TYPE OF SITUATION, THE INCUMBENT DOES NOT WIN.....
