The Politics of the Blue State Bankruptcy

10 Jan 2011 10:53 #1 by lionshead2010
I realize the shooting in Arizona has gripped everyone's attention at the moment, but I was poking around the internet and found this article from back in December. I thought this fellow had some interesting points to make:

The Politics of Blue State Bankruptcy

New York, California and Illinois look more like Greece to their bondholders every day. Since the November elections, investors have been dumping their bonds, and hedge funds are betting against them, perhaps realizing that a Republican House is not going to offer generous, condition free bailouts. . . .

Back before the midterms, investors were justified in thinking that Democratic majorities in Congress would rally behind a Democratic president seeking to save the top Democratic states from a financial meltdown. (Much of last year’s “stimulus” actually consisted of emergency cash transfers to strapped states in order to prevent mass layoffs and service cuts.) Now it is much less clear where the states stand and what kind of help will be available. Uncertainty equals risk for bond investors: the White House and the Congress need to plan now to deal with the possible crisis.


But if Republicans will be damned if they do and damned if they don’t, Democrats will just be damned. The prospect of a blue state fiscal crisis is an uncomfortable and threatening one for the GOP; it spells potential catastrophe for the Democrats. The bankruptcy of the big blue states would symbolize the bankruptcy of Democratic party policies to wide swathes of the voting public. Tensions within the Democratic Party would explode: unionized public sector workers would simply not be able to emerge from this kind of crisis without savage layoffs and agonizing cuts in their pay, benefits and pension packages. All the promises (mostly) Democratic politicians have made to them over decades will be exposed for the hollow frauds they were. . . .

http://dollarcollapse.com/uncategorized ... ankruptcy/

I'm no economist by ANY stretch of the imagination...but I've heard from some good sources that Colorado has its own fiscal woes to contend with. It makes me wonder a.) if states like California, New York and Illinois could default? and, b.) if they did, what would be the fallout of such a default on the rest of the U.S. economy?

I also wonder how such defaults would impact the elections in 2012. This should be a very interesting couple of years. If you think you are seeing a lot of vitriol now, wait until one, two or all three of these states folds. HOLY TOLEDO!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

10 Jan 2011 10:58 #2 by Residenttroll returns
Before the election, you should make sure you have plenty of ammo. Seriously! Government will cut policing, jails, etc before the entitlement and pension programs. The bad guys will roam the streets looking for anything. Too many individuals out of work.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

10 Jan 2011 12:14 #3 by FredHayek
And the states like California have already done all they could to finance these pensions like selling buildings and leasing them back, selling parking meter revenue. Done everything but start cutting the pension payouts and increasing the pension percentage taken out of checks.
Then again, the Feds are doing the same thing SS is going bankrupt and they are cutting their intake per person in half.

One bright side I just saw. Gov. Brown wants to lock in the tax increases and decreased California budgets for five more years. Maybe knowing the Feds are not riding to their rescue is making them grow up.

Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

10 Jan 2011 17:46 #4 by ScienceChic
The fallout would hit beneficiary states hard, assuming that our government would realize that it needs to scale back spending ASAP. According to the most recent analysis by The Tax Foundation in 2005, California gets back $0.78 of every dollar it pays to the feds (ranking 9th on donating and 43rd on receiving), IL $0.75 (ranking 14th on donating, 45th on receiving), and NY $0.79 (ranking 5th on donating, 42nd on receiving).

http://www.visualeconomics.com/united-s ... x-dollars/
http://www.taxfoundation.org/files/ftsb ... 71016-.pdf

While I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion of this article, or the 2nd one below, it makes some interesting points:
http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2011/0 ... -proposal/
California should secede from the Union: a semi-modest proposal
Posted on January 3, 2011

I was thinking about this problem when it occurred to me that I had seen some other interesting numbers on California’s tax situation. http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2009/0 ... g-whimper/ As it turns out, Cali is what we call a “donor state”: they contribute more to the federal government than they get back in services. Specifically, Washington, DC only returns $0.78 for every dollar that California pays in taxes.

78 cents. Hmmm. So I grabbed my calculator and did some basic math. Using the latest available numbers, California is paying roughly $314 billion in federal taxes. They’re getting back approximately $245 billion. That’s on the order of a $69 billion loss.

Expressed another way, that’s the deficit California presently faces plus a tidy $41 billion surplus. Does anyone besides me see a financial incentive to revisit the state’s relationship with the federal government? More to the point, wouldn’t it be perfectly responsible for Gov. Brown and the state legislature to take up deliberations on the possibility of secession?

Some caveats are in order, I suspect. First, I’m abstracting a complex issue in order to suggest a point. Second, I’m no math and economics genius, so I invite those of you with better number skills to double-check my calculations.


http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2009/0 ... g-whimper/

Notice, by the way, that there are only 17 giver states (15 of which voted for Obama), as opposed to 32 taker states (21 of which voted for McCain). Not that we’re counting.

Now, if we leave out the District of Columbia, which is something of a special case, a certain pattern emerges here. If we think in terms of Blue states and Red states, a lot more Red States are takers, and a lot more Blue states are givers. It’s not a perfect correspondence, but it’s still pretty compelling.

We can all speculate and pontificate on the “outrage” among those who seem to be worried about socialism or whatever under an Obama presidency, but we all know what this is about.

Federal Spending per Dollar of Federal Taxes by State (2005)

1. New Mexico $2.03
2. Mississippi $2.02
3. Alaska $1.84
4. Louisiana $1.78
5. West Virginia $1.76
6. North Dakota $1.68
7. Alabama $1.66
8. South Dakota $1.53
9. Kentucky $1.51
10. Virginia $1.51
11. Montana $1.47
12. Hawaii $1.44
13. Maine $1.41
14. Arkansas $1.41
15. Oklahoma $1.36
16. South Carolina $1.35
17. Missouri $1.32
19. Tennessee $1.27
20. Idaho $1.21
21. Arizona $1.19
22. Kansas $1.12
23. Wyoming $1.11
24. Iowa $1.10
25. Nebraska $1.10
26. Vermont $1.08
27. North Carolina $1.08
28. Pennsylvania $1.07
29. Utah $1.07
30. Indiana $1.05
31. Ohio $1.05
32. Georgia $1.01
33. Rhode Island $1.00
34. Florida $0.97
35. Texas $0.94
36. Oregon $0.93
37. Michigan $0.92
38. Washington $0.88
39. Wisconsin $0.86
40. Massachusetts $0.82
41. Colorado $0.81
42. New York $0.79
43. California $0.78
44. Delaware $0.77
45. Illinois $0.75
46. Minnesota $0.72
47. New Hampshire $0.71
48. Connecticut $0.69
49. Nevada $0.65
50. New Jersey $0.61
51. District of Columbia $5.55
21 of the 32 beneficiary states voted for McCain, only 1 of the 18 donor states. If we were truly heading toward socialism wouldn't those who take more vote for those politicians who make that happen and those who give more get tired of being taken advantage of and vote for those politicians who support keeping what you make? The results are opposite of what you'd expect, so it seems that socialism is not the answer. Poor money management/economic understanding? Greed?

So if CA declares bankruptcy, it'll be blamed on liberalism, when in fact, it's the conservative states that are sucking up the federal tax dollars - is that the fault of the federal government not spending wisely, or the conservative states not being self-sufficient?

"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

10 Jan 2011 17:53 #5 by LOL
I'm moving to New Mexico, and signing up for free Obama care and SS. I think I may sell beef jerky on the side of the road part-time from my fancy tax free motorhome. Life in the USA is good. Why fight em? Do they have wireless internet there and brew pubs?

If you want to be, press one. If you want not to be, press 2

Republicans are red, democrats are blue, neither of them, gives a flip about you.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

10 Jan 2011 18:08 #6 by LOL
Seriously Lionshead,
Thanks for the post and link. I have been warning of this looming bond crisis for awhile and it seems ignored by most in the media and on forums. Everyone thinks Governments (state and feds) have a handle on these deficits and we can grow and inflate out of it. We are so hosed its scary, and all the corrupt politicians must be hording Swiss gold, because they are not doing squat about fixing it. Unless we think more "promised" entitlements and more lower taxes, credits and deductions are fixing anything.

If you want to be, press one. If you want not to be, press 2

Republicans are red, democrats are blue, neither of them, gives a flip about you.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

10 Jan 2011 22:40 #7 by lionshead2010
Science Chic....that's very interesting information too. I had no idea certain states were taking in more than they give while others the opposite. With a little tongue-in-cheek I would say that if California, New York and Illinois left the union two important things would happen.

1. The U.S. Government would apparently go bankrupt and,
2. We would never again elect a Democrat as president.

And I have to ask....where is the downside in those two outcomes? :biggrin:

But seriously....I wonder who is REALLY dealing with what appears to be some impending economic disasters? I hear the media talking around the edges of it...but it just doesn't seem to be mainstream yet. Are there solutions to this meltdown or is it inevitable?

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

10 Jan 2011 23:36 #8 by ScienceChic
Not Congress. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6013/14.full
The Battle Over the 2011 Budget: What's at Stake for Research
Science 7 January 2011:
Vol. 331 no. 6013 pp. 14-15
DOI: 10.1126/science.331.6013.14

What's going on? The answer is that a federal budget process that has always been hideously complex has become even more fragmented. Congress is supposed to pass 12 separate appropriations bills to fund all branches of government by the start of the fiscal year on 1 October. That has happened less and less often in recent years, however. Instead, procrastinating legislators have adopted one or more short-term continuing resolutions (CRs), holding spending to current levels, before eventually wrapping several individual spending bills into something called an omnibus bill.

This year, even that hope-and-a-prayer approach couldn't get the job done.


While I firmly believe that forced socialization will never effectively work for a country, there voluntarily and legislatively needs to be more parity and fairness, or the working class will eventually revolt. No one is dealing with the continuing economic problems effectively. The wealthy are getting tax codes re-structured so they can hang onto, or make more of, their money and then slide it out of the country. Corporations are sending more jobs overseas and leaving more temp jobs here that aren't sustainable for families. Solutions: not talked about in-depth all that much, and I think it's because they won't be easy (eg impossible with the current control that Wall St and corporations have over our political "leaders"). Unless there is a massive fundamental shift in attitudes and efforts, we're in the crapper for a long-haul. Assuming that my crappy understanding of economics is even close to being right. These articles were enlightening for me, peruse at your leisure as you wish.

http://www.alternet.org/economy/149396/ ... ble?page=1
Is the Ruination of America Possible?
While the United States has suffered the worst recession in living memory, things have only gotten better for the wealthy.
January 5, 2011

Most Americans believe that a person should enjoy the full fruits of his or her labors, however abundant. In this light, taxation tends to be seen as an intrinsic evil. It is worth noting, however, that throughout the 1950's -- a decade for which American conservatives pretend to feel a harrowing sense of nostalgia -- the marginal tax rate for the wealthy was over 90 percent. Since 1982, however, it has come down by half. In the meantime, the average net worth of the richest 1 percent of Americans has doubled (to $18.5 million), while that of the poorest 40 percent has fallen by 63 percent (to $2,200). Thirty years ago, top U.S. executives made about 50 times the salary of their average employees. In 2007, the average worker would have had to toil for 1,100 years to earn what his CEO brought home between Christmas in Aspen and Christmas on St. Barthes.

We now live in a country in which the bottom 40 percent (120 million people) owns just 0.3 percent of the wealth. Data of this kind make one feel that one is participating in a vast psychological experiment: Just how much inequality can free people endure?

It is easy to understand why even the most generous person might be averse to paying taxes: Our legislative process has been hostage to short-term political interests and other perverse incentives for as long as anyone can remember. Consequently, our government wastes an extraordinary amount of money. It also seems uncontroversial to say that whatever can be best accomplished in the private sector should be. But I can't imagine that anyone seriously believes that the current level of wealth inequality in the United States is good and worth maintaining, or that our government's first priority should be to spare a privileged person like myself the slightest hardship as this once great nation falls into ruin.

And the ruination of the United States really does seem possible. It has been widely reported, for instance, that students in Shanghai far surpass our own in science, reading, and math. In fact, when compared to other countries, American students are now disconcertingly average (slightly below in math), where the average includes utopias like Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Albania, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia. Needless to say, most Americans have no choice but to send their children to terrible schools -- where they will learn the lesser part of nothing and emerge already beggared by a national debt now on course to reach $20 trillion.

American opposition to the "redistribution of wealth" has achieved the luster of a religious creed. The truth, however, is that everyone must favor the "redistribution of wealth" at some point. This relates directly to the issue of education: as the necessity of doing boring and dangerous work disappears -- whether because we have built better machines and infrastructure, or shipped our least desirable jobs overseas -- people need to be better educated so that they can apply themselves to more interesting work.

To make matters more difficult, Americans have made a religious fetish of something called "self-reliance." Most seem to think that while a person may not be responsible for the opportunities he gets in life, each is entirely responsible for what he makes of these opportunities. This is, without question, a false view of the human condition. Consider the biography of any "self-made" American, from Benjamin Franklin on down, and you will find that his success was entirely dependent on background conditions that he did not make, and of which he was a mere beneficiary. There is not a person on earth who chose his genome, or the country of his birth, or the political and economic conditions that prevailed at moments crucial to his progress. Consequently, no one is responsible for his intelligence, range of talents, or ability to do productive work.


http://www.alternet.org/economy/149405/ ... ing_poorer
10 Signs That Our Nation Is Becoming Poorer
The Working Poor Families Project has discovered that the number of working poor in the United States is higher than ever and it continues to increase at a staggering pace.
January 4, 2011

We are rapidly becoming a nation that will have a very small privileged class of ultra-wealthy and a very large class of "workers" that is just barely trying to survive.

So is the answer even more government handouts and even more government social programs?

Of course not.

What middle class Americans need are middle class jobs.

But as I have written about previously, the United States is rapidly bleeding middle class jobs with no end in sight.

Globalism has permanently changed the game. The middle class way of life that so many millions of Americans have been enjoying for so many decades is disappearing.

But instead of facing reality, our federal government, our state governments and our local governments just keep borrowing massive amounts of dollars to try to paper over all of our problems.

It is not going to work. Unless something is done to fix our structural economic problems, the economic decay is just going to get worse and all of this debt is eventually going to collapse our entire financial system.


http://www.alternet.org/economy/149234/ ... well-being
How and Why Working America Is Complicit in the Elite Assault on its Economic Well-Being
Sociologist Lisa Dodson examines what she terms the “economic disobedience” now pervasive in the low-wage sector.
January 3, 2011

Persistent high unemployment, rising poverty and shrinking state budgets have made insecurity the norm for America’s working class. Economic disobedience very much resonates with civil disobedience as part of American history. The forefront of that today is the issue of inequality. Where people feel provoked, they break a rule, bend a rule. It’s taking sides in a very private way. It’s not a mobilized effort yet, but it is a way people are confronting the incredible economic disparity in America today.

We may all have the right to vote now, and we may have laws that are supposed to protect workers, but the truth is that tens of millions of people are not being paid enough to take care of themselves or their kids. So this creates a really sharp paradox for fair-minded people, many of whom are not particularly interested in being advocates or activists. They just think that things ought to be fair. They think that if people work hard and do their job, they should be able to take care of themselves. But because the inequality built into the economy is so profound and so pervasive, people are committing economic disobedience.

The corrosive effects of protracted poverty—even when you’re working as hard as you can work—have a very negative effect on a society. It is not that people or families shouldn’t be responsible. People are extraordinarily responsible. But what about these economic structures? It is projected that 50 percent of all U.S. children will be members of low-income households.


http://www.alternet.org/economy/149412/ ... _democracy
Hightower: How Wall Street Elites Are Dynamiting Our Democracy
Our society can tolerate such raw selfishness by the privileged few, or it can have democracy. It can't have both.
January 6, 2011

Most politicos and economists, however, no longer want to be bothered with the fact that millions of our people are either unemployed or underemployed. Jobs, they say dismissively, are merely a "lagging economic indicator," a problem that'll take care of itself in the by and by. But jobs have been "lagging" for years now, and there's no sign that this problem will ever take care of itself. To the contrary, America's corporate elite have learned that they can prosper by deliberately holding the workaday majority in a new normal of job insecurity.

No one at the top wants to admit it, but big business has quietly been imposing a structural transformation on our economy, shifting from a workforce of permanent employees to one in which most jobs are temporary, scarce, low-paid, without benefits and with no upward mobility. Of the 1.2 million jobs created by the private sector last year, for example, 26 percent were temporary positions, and in November, temp jobs soared to 80 percent of that month's total.

What's happening here is not merely a matter of a few million folks being momentarily down on their luck, but of an intentional dismantling of America's middle-class structure.


"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

11 Jan 2011 00:34 - 11 Jan 2011 00:36 #9 by Residenttroll returns
This says it all.....US Fiscal Policy and the Global Outlook
Speech by John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
At the American Economic Association Annual Meetings, Roundtable on "The United States in the World Economy"
Denver, January 8, 2011

U.S. Fiscal Policy
Turning first to U.S. fiscal policy, the slow pace so far of economic recovery and weak job creation—despite the wide margin of excess capacity—argues for maintaining supportive monetary and fiscal policies in the very near term. Indeed, expansionary fiscal policy already played a critical role in averting a deeper U.S. recession. According to IMF analysis, fiscal measures contributed about 2 percentage points to GDP growth in 2009, and another one percentage point last year. At the same time, federal debt held by the public has risen from about 36 percent of GDP in 2007 to about 62 percent of GDP in 2010, while prospective debt dynamics have worsened significantly. In the absence of corrective measures, and taking into account underlying fiscal pressures that predated the crisis, debt could reach about 95 percent of GDP by the end of this decade—a level last reached immediately following World War II. Without policy adjustments, subsequently the debt simply would keep rising. From this perspective, the need for urgent action to secure medium-term fiscal sustainability appears to be self-evident.


Entire speech is a great read: http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2011/010811.htm

Basically, US is bankrupt.

Hum, it's time to get our heads out of the sand...and start cutting.....cutting regulations, cutting government employee union contracts, cutting taxes, cutting the government.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

11 Jan 2011 00:35 #10 by archer

residenttroll wrote: This says it all.....US Fiscal Policy and the Global Outlook
Speech by John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
At the American Economic Association Annual Meetings, Roundtable on "The United States in the World Economy"
Denver, January 8, 2011

U.S. Fiscal Policy
Turning first to U.S. fiscal policy, the slow pace so far of economic recovery and weak job creation—despite the wide margin of excess capacity—argues for maintaining supportive monetary and fiscal policies in the very near term. Indeed, expansionary fiscal policy already played a critical role in averting a deeper U.S. recession. According to IMF analysis, fiscal measures contributed about 2 percentage points to GDP growth in 2009, and another one percentage point last year. At the same time, federal debt held by the public has risen from about 36 percent of GDP in 2007 to about 62 percent of GDP in 2010, while prospective debt dynamics have worsened significantly. In the absence of corrective measures, and taking into account underlying fiscal pressures that predated the crisis, debt could reach about 95 percent of GDP by the end of this decade—a level last reached immediately following World War II. Without policy adjustments, subsequently the debt simply would keep rising. From this perspective, the need for urgent action to secure medium-term fiscal sustainability appears to be self-evident.


http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2011/010811.htm

Hum, it's time to get our heads out of the sand...and start cutting.....cutting regulations, cutting taxes, cutting the government.



hmmmm...that ought to cut the middle class right out of this country. I would rather cut spending, cut corporate interests in our elected officials, cut lobbying, and cut fooling ourselves that we can do anything about this economy without increasing revenue.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Time to create page: 0.176 seconds
Powered by Kunena Forum
sponsors
© My Mountain Town (new)
Google+