Israel silently watches the unfolding of two new fronts
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis January 29, 2011, 11:56 PM (GMT+02:00)
Egypt, one of the only two Arab states to sign peace with Israel, is wobbling dangerously on the brink of revolutionary change with potentially spreading fallout. This week, Israel was dismayed to find itself looking suddenly at three latently hostile fronts about to spring up around its borders: Lebanon, which has dropped into the Iranian orbit, followed by Egypt, which is heading for terra incognita, and the Gaza Strip, where the Palestinian Hamas, offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, has gained altitude as a Middle East player from the rise of its less radical parent.
Indeed Gaza's rulers, who are close to Iran, are puffing themselves up as a bridge between the Shiite Revolution of Iran and the Sunni-led revolution of Egypt.
In the five days of the Egyptian upheaval from Tuesday, Jan. 25, none of the Israeli Middle East experts and pundits interviewed in one broadcast after another pointed to the three most pertinent common factors of the regime changes overtaking Tunisia, Lebanon and Egypt – all in the space of days.
1. Not a single protester or slogan-bearer summoned up the Israeli-Palestinian dispute as a factor in the most revolutionary transformations to overtake the region's countries in half a century. The Palestinians issue was totally absent from street demonstrations and Iran's takeover of Lebanon - giving the lie to the decades-long claim by Western decision- and opinion-makers that the Israel-Palestinian conflict was the root-cause of instability in the Arab and Muslim worlds and if it were not settled, those worlds would turn against the West. The Palestinians were plainly far from the minds of this week's Arab demonstrators.
My interpretation is that Israel is not topmost on the minds of Egypt. Their concerns are internal. The external consequences or fallout is the main concern of Israel. But Israel's fears cannot/should not dictate the internal politics and destiny of Egypt.
How different would the world be today if the Shah of Iran had ordered his troops to open fire in 79? Subversives need to be put down in their infancy.
major bean wrote: My interpretation is that Israel is not topmost on the minds of Egypt. Their concerns are internal. The external consequences or fallout is the main concern of Israel. But Israel's fears cannot/should not dictate the internal politics and destiny of Egypt.
