Enforcing the law works.

neptunechimney wrote:

AspenValley wrote: I can't help but wonder if the dropping numbers have more to do with a tanking economy (especially in the housing industry) than Rambo-esque law enforcement.

From the article.

"The trend in Maricopa County is at odds with a national trend that has shown an increase in deportations of undocumented immigrants in the same time frame."

I don't have time to run down all the numbers but it's my impression that Maricopa County is experiencing a general decrease in population due to some pretty severe economic problems. If that wasn't factored into the numbers, and I doubt it was, it may not be as "cut and dried" a situation as it may appear.

I'm willing to be convinced that Rambo Sheriff's techniques have caused the desired result, but I'm not willing to swallow the theory whole without a lot more evidence.

Since others on this forum seem to be interested in logic problems:

If crime is down in Y County
And Sheriff X of Y County is cracking down on crime
Does it necessarily follow that Sheriff X's activities explain why crime is down?

No.

It is possible, but not proven, from those two pieces of information that Sheriff Xs activities have had an effect on crime.

But with only those two bits of information, it cannot be concluded. Here are only SOME of the possibilities that may be true under those two variables:

-Crime may be down because of economic factors.
-Crime may not be down although reported crime is because of police budgets being cut/lack of reporting.
-Crime may be down because population is down.
-Crime may be down because of demographic shifts having no relationship to Sheriff Xs activities.
-Crime may be down because of law enforcement improvements unrelated to Sheriff Xs activities.
-Crime may not be down but there is a statistical bias or flaw in the reporting method.
-Crime may not be down at all but only appears to be because the reporting period is too short to have statistical meaning.
-Crime may be down for reasons that cannot be determined.
-Crime may be down because of factors pre-dating Sheriff Xs activities that are only now becoming measurable in the statistics

And this is why I never jump to a conclusion based on a headline like "Crime Down In Utopia Community, Sheriff Xs Activities Proven Sound".

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, and while many people are good at detecting the first two, few are reliably competent at detecting the pitfalls of the last.

I had the same thought when I saw the time frame was from 2008. Statistics can be made to say anything we want them to say. For instance, the article is comparing "the number of county-jail inmates whom deputies suspect of being in the country illegally" to the national number of deportations. These two number shouldn't even be compared as they are apples and oranges.