wxgeek's weather outlook for Jan 25-31 (Update Thurs Jan 27)

Update Thu Jan 27

Models coming into better agreement on our upcoming storm. Friday and Saturday still on tap to be sunny and warm, with temps 10-15 deg above seasonal norms. Sunday now also looks to be dry and mild. Models suggest that the upper trough coming down from the north will split into two distinct branches, with the stronger southern branch heading into the desert SW and the northern branch coming across CO. The first impulse will drag a cold front acrss eastern CO during the day on Monday, bringing much cooler temps and some upslope flow by mid day increasing chances for snow. The southern branch is then forecast to combine with the northern branch carving out a deep upper trough over CO on Tuesday. This forecast would start snow mid day on Monday and continue Monday night and Tuesday, ending Tuesday evening. Models project a good upslope flow up to about 10,000 ft, with good lift from the upper trough above that in more westerly flow. Still too early to pin down totals, but right now I would estimate something in the 3-8 inch range for the foothills. Because the upper trough is quite broad, looks like snow will impact nearly all of CO on Tuesday including mountains and Plains.

The remainder of next week from Wed through the weekend looks dry and mild to continue our rather dry winter pattern. For reference, New York City has now received 54 inches of snow for the season, almost double what we at 9000 ft have received. January has been our snowiest month so far this season, with a paltry 10.5 inches. We are now at 29.5 inches fopr the season on Conifer Mtn, which is 40% of our average snowfall (73 inches is our average on Jan 31). Looking back at past records, I could not find a season that has started this slow, even the drought year of 2001/2002 had 44 inches at this point, and 2005/2006 had 50 inches at this point. So we are in new territory for lack of snowfall. We desperately need a snowy Feb through May period if we have any hope of avoiding a very bad fire season. Unfortunately the Climate Prediction Center is calling for above normal temps and below normal precipitation for the Feb-Apr preiod. I sure hope they are wrong.

As a side note, I will be out of pocket the remainder of this week and most of next week (vacation and business travel), so I may not be able to provide any additional updates during this period.
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Update Wed Jan 26

Still looks like a decent wind event tonight, with west to northwest winds in the 20-40 mph range. Thursday through Saturday should be mostly sunny and warm across the state, with temps well above seasonal norms.

Models not in great agreement, but general concensus is that an upper trough and associated cold front will move down from the north late in the day on Sunday and bring a chance for snow Sunday night into Monday over the eastern half of CO. Amounts at this time anywhere from an inch to about 4 inches depending on which model. Euro model then brings very cold air into CO Monday and Tuesday, while the GFS brings in cool air. Will have to wait and see which solution dominates, but overall weather will drastically change on Sunday/Monday compared to later this week. Still does not look like any big snow events in our near future as upper ridge looks to persist along the West Coast and keep generally dry northwest flow across CO, while keeping the Great Lakes and Northeast cold and snowy.

Current snow event over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast will cause travel problems tonight into Thursday as they receive another 6-18 inches of snow.
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Well, as we witnessed this morning, still not an exact science, darn those mathematicians, but additional moisture at this point is definitely welcome. Up to 4 inches in some areas.

Another disturbance is forecast to track down from the northwest on Tuesday, bringing a chance for more snow from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. This system looks like another fast moving weak system, but models tend to have a difficult time with precipitation accumulation with these systems. Currently looks like anwhere from a dusting to about 2 inches possible with this next system. There could be enough snow by the Tuesday evening commute to make roads slick in spots, and again Wednesday morning.

Pattern then shifts and keeps the storm track north of us from Thursday through Saturday. The focus will shift to strong westerly winds Wednesday night into Thursday morning, so with recent snow, could cause blowing and drifting of snow especially across South Park. Temps warm to above seasonal norms Thursday through Saturday.

Long range models bring a cold front with cooler air in late on Sunday into Monday, so chances for snow Sunday night into Monday. Amounts look pretty light at this time.

thanks for the update.

any moisture would be appreciated. we are just way too dry. had to reschedule working with a horse i broke this summer. she still has a kick. don't think the horse wants to be out in south park drifting snow.

Bump for Wed Jan 26th update

I only hope we see 4 inches of snow. I want more snow to go snowshoeing.

Bump for Thurs Jan 27th Update.

Thanks to wxgeeks and Ren, CJ for posting this .

For completeness, here is the link to the source:

http://pinecam.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=124987

Trilogy wrote: For completeness, here is the link to the source:

http://pinecam.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=124987

?????? That is exactly what is in this post????

Plus, since there are many "banned" people from Pinecam here, they can't view that link.

Just FYI for those curious, these posts are with permission of the author.