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new research
from Jonah Berger and Devin Pope suggests that once we account for some basic psychological principles of motivation, the odds of winning might, in some cases, be reversed. In other words, being behind by a little can actually increase a team’s likelihood of winning.
The authors’ hypothesis is based on two insights from behavioral economics : loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. We don’t like losing, and our efforts have greater marginal impact as we get closer to a goal. This suggests that teams that are behind should be motivated to catch up, and this motivation to catch up should increase as the discrepancy between scores diminishes. To test this theory they turned to the tapes and analyzed all NBA basketball games from 1993 through March 2009 with this simple question in mind: would teams that are slightly behind at halftime be more likely to win games than teams that are slightly ahead?
"Now, more than ever, the illusions of division threaten our very existence. We all know the truth: more connects us than separates us. But in times of crisis the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers. We must find a way to look after one another as if we were one single tribe.” -King T'Challa, Black Panther
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it. ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is. ~Winston Churchill
One important caveat, doesn't work with current Bronco teams! :faint: Unless they are winning at the half.
Interesting article, Vegas does let you bet at half time, I wonder if they will adjust the odds now once the general public knows this.
And there was a great example of this theory in the NBA finals this year, the Heat were leading at halftime on many games but couldn't close the deal.
Maybe the team behind gets motivated, but I think it has more to do with the winning team taking it easy after getting a few points ahead.
Thomas Sowell: There are no solutions, just trade-offs.
