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As many an influenza researcher has observed, the virus that they study is predictably unpredictable. But when a bird flu virus makes the jump to people, it's easy to predict how humans will react: Pandemic jitters will reverberate around the world, media will scrutinize the actions of public officials, and investigators will begin racing to answer questions about the virus's origins, spread, and potential threat.
The scenario unfolded again after China's National Health and Family Planning Commission announced on 31 March that a bird flu virus, designated H7N9, had infected three humans, killing two of them. But so far, researchers are guardedly optimistic: There is no persuasive evidence that the virus spreads between people, an ability it would need to set off the next flu pandemic. On 9 April, as Science went to press, a steady trickle of Chinese government reports had confirmed 28 cases and eight deaths.
The Chinese government has won praise for aggressively pursuing this outbreak and openly discussing its findings (see sidebar, p. 130). Part of the bad news is that it remains a mystery how the confirmed cases became infected.
There has been bird flu. And swine flu. But the world is on new flu ground when it comes to the H7N9 virus that recently erupted in China, the World Health Organization’s senior flu expert said Friday.
The virus has sickened at least 43 people in eastern China. Most of the infections have involved severe illness and 11 of the cases have died.
At this point, few in the flu world would place strong bets on what the history books will say about this outbreak. So in the face of the uncertainty, the WHO is laying the groundwork for action, if action is needed.
As of Thursday, all the laboratories in the WHO’s flu network have received copies of the H7N9 virus — a development that allows them to dive into research on the virus. Fukuda praised Chinese authorities for sharing the virus so quickly and broadly.
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(emphasis mine)China's top health authority confirmed that a family infected by H7N9 in Shanghai might involve human-to-human transmission of the new bird flu strain.
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