I've been seeing quite a few friends share this NPR story from May:
New Data Show The Coronavirus Is Less Lethal Than First Thought,
and wanted to discuss this.
First off, the headline is misleading. The experts didn't "fail," this pandemic has always been a study in progress. We can't know what the true case fatality rate is until we have more accurate and more comprehensive testing, that's been said all along by experts. Early calculations put the number of unreported cases at 20X what the reported number was (if I'm remembering correctly), which automatically meant a lower case fatality rate. But, that doesn't mean this virus is any less as serious of a threat. As Dr. Menachemi said in the NPR interview, "That doesn't sound like a lot, but it's a very infectious disease that kills at a rate almost six times greater than seasonal flu."
Second, it's a damn good thing this virus isn't more lethal (although, perhaps people would be taking it more seriously). The fact is that in the U.S. about 12,000-54,000 people die of the flu every year and we're at over 160,000 deaths due to COVID19 since only January. For comparison:
2009 H1N1 = 12,000 U.S. deaths
2017-18 flu = 61,000 deaths
SARS-CoV-1 in 2003 = 774 deaths.
MERS, the other cornoavirus outbreak which saw 3-4 out of 10 die who contracted it had a grand total of 2 patients in the U.S. (both of whom lived), and 858 deaths worldwide.
*all stats from the CDC
SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19 = 162,381 deaths and counting
*stats from Johns Hopkins
Yes, most people who contract this virus survive, but we don't yet know the long-term health consequences and despite the high survivability, it's still managed to kill more Americans than if we had 53 straight days of 9/11s, and the economic consequences of tens of millions of Americans out of work and without health insurance during the worst pandemic since 1918 still hasn't been fully realized.
If you'd like to see some real data crunching, check out Trevor Bedford's Tweet threads from
yesterday
and
today
on the seroprevalence in Florida, Texas, and Arizona.