wxgeek's weather-windy week ahead-Update April 5

Update Tue Apr 5

Gusty westerly winds will continue today into tonight, but should subside some on Wednesday. Red Flag Warning in effect today until 8 pm. Upper level trough will begin to affect CO on Wednesday with snow into the mountains west of the Divide during the day, and will bring a chance for showers across the foothills and Plains by late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Snow level around 10,000 ft Wednesday afternoon lowering to 7500-8500 ft by Thursday morning. No more than an inch of acummulation above 8000 ft expected. Some showers may persist into Thursday afternoon, especially along the foothills and Palmer Divide, with snow level 9000-10,000 ft during the day on Thursday.

The good news for fire fighting efforts is that winds will decrease and humidity levels will increase Wednesday and Thursday. The bad news is that southwest winds will increase once again on Friday and Saturday accompanied by warm temps and low humidities, so fire danger will again be quite high Friday and Saturday.

Models do not have a good gandle yet on weekend system. GFS model moves the upper low across northern CO on Saturday night, while the ECMWF keeps the upper low over the 4 corners area through Sunday. Because it is Spring, which is the season for cut off lows, I am leaning towards the ECMWF solution which would keep warm and windy weather on Saturday, and not bring any chance for precip until Sunday to our area. Will have to wait and see how models come togather on this. Either way, Sunday looks to be cooler with moisture possible, so lower fire danger.

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The limited snow we got Sunday (3 inches on Conifer Mtn) likely will not be enough to offset the high wind event on tap for Monday night and Tuesday morning, so more Red Flag weather in our immediate future. Strong west to northwest winds will develop later this afternoon and become quite strong by tonight into Tuesday morning. NWS has issued a High Wind Watch for the foothills from 6 am Tuesday through Noon Tuesday. Wind speeds in the 25-50 mph range likely tonight and Tuesday morning, with some gusts to 65 mph. Strongest winds will likely be north of I-70, but will be strong enough south to cause possible power outages and downed lines to cause fire concerns. Humidities also will be quite low to contribute to more fire danger.

The next system to affect CO will approach on Wednesday and bring more snow to the mountains west of the Divide during the day. System will push east and bring a chance for some showers to the foothills and Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Snow level will begin around 10,000 ft Wednesday afternoon, lowering to 7500-8500 ft Wednesday night. I do not anticpate more than an inch of accumulation in spots where it does precipitate. As has been the case all year, mountains west of the Divide will receive the brunt of moisture.

On Thursday, flow aloft becomes southwesterly in advance of a rahther large upper trough along the West Coast, which will bring more warm and windy weather to the foothills. Snow will prevail in the mountains west of the Divide on Thursday and Friday, but foothills and Plains will remain breezy, warm and dry with elevated fire danger. Long range models still uncertain on the timing and track of the upper trough when it moves eastward, but general idea is that the upper trough will move northeast across CO this weekend. Mountains look to receive the bulk of the precip, while the foothills and Plains may see some limited moisture. If the track and intensity change, we could see more significant moisture, but since the trend all year has been to diminish promising looking storms, not willing to suggest anything significant until it is upon us. Long range models suggest more possible moisture next week as well.

Bump for April 5 update