wxgeek's weather-Update April 13

Update Wed Apr 13

Models in good agreement regarding system tonight and Thursday. There looks to actually be 2 distinct impulses. the first impulse will mostly affect the foothills and mountains east of the Divide this evening, with precip beginning around 5 pm. Snow level will be 8000-9000 ft initially, and will steadily lower overnight, down to about 6500-7500 ft by Thursday morning. The second and more powerful impulse will be associated with primary upper trough currently over the Great Basin. This precip will begin to affect western mountains west of the Divide between 6 pm and midnight where Winter Weather Advisories are posted. This precip will move across the foothills and Plains starting around midnight and persist into Thursday morning. Likely not a discernable break between the two batches in the foothills. What is likely is that areas above 7000 ft will see 1-3 inches of snow, with 3-6 inches possible in areas above 8000 ft. Snow should end around noon on Thurday in the foothills and Urban Corridor. Precip is likely to contine across the western mountains and far eastern Plains trhough about 6 pm Thursday. Initially winds across the foothills will be southeasterly, which has an upslope component, but is not ideal for snow. Winds become northwesterly Thursday which will shut off precip by noon. As this system moves east into KS later in the day on Thursday, it intensifies which will create a very strong surface pressure gradient coupled with strong northwest winds aloft by Thursday afternoon. Strong west to northwest winds in the 25-50 mph range will persist from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, causing blowing and drifting of recent snow in the foothills. Travel could be difficult by Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, so expect a slow Thursday morning commute. Thursday evening could have some wind and blowing snow issues as well.

Winds subside by Friday afternoon with mostly sunny skies and warmer temps. Weekend still looks like a mix of sun and clouds, with isolated showers possible in the afternoon and evening, mostly across the higehr terrain and north of I-70. Sunday afternoon may have a few more showers than Saturday, with snow level both days above 9000 ft.

Long range models continue to indicate an unsettled weather pattern for most of next week showers possible nearly every day, and snow level between 8000-9500 ft. Hoepfully models provide some more granularity by the weekend.

---

Latest models are indicating that the next weather system will be stronger than previously thought. Precipitation will move into western CO Wednesday afternoon, and spread east to the foothills by late afternoon or evening. Snow level will initially be 8500-9500 ft but lower to 6000-7000 ft by Thursday morning. Models are indicating higher elevations could see from 2 to 5 inches of snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Models continue to intensify upper low on Thursday as it moves into southwest KS. In response, surface low deepens over southeast CO creating strong northwest flow across eastern CO. Precip for the foothills looks to end by late Thursday morning, but precip across the eastern Plains could persist into Thuesday evening and be quite heavy at times. Snow level will likely remain above the surface across the Plains, so most precip is expecetd to be rain, although if enough colder air mixes down to the surface, wet snow could fall and create travel problems, as surface winds are expected to be in the 30-55 mph range by Thursday afternoon across all of eastern CO. Strong northwest flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradient will keep surface winds in the 25-50 mph range going Thursday night in the foothills and much of the Plains into Friday morning. It is possible this system will continue to become stronger than current models suggest and move even slower, so snow amounts could become even higher. Road conditions by Wednesday night and Thursday morning could become slick, so winter driving skills may become necessary. Hope everyone has not forgotten these since they have not been required very often this year.

Warmer and calmer conditions should prevail by later Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning. Some showers are possible Saturday afternoon and evening, but mostly over the mountains and north of I-70. More widespread shower activity is likely Sunday afternoon and evening, especially west of the Divide wth snow level above 10,000 ft, although some small hail and grauple is possible in heavier showers or thunderstorms.

Long range models continue to suggest a chance for additional moisture early to the middle of next week.

Bump for April 13 update