wxgeek's weather-Mostly Warm, Dry and Breezy Again This Week

Looks like our trend so far this June will continue into this week. Mostly dry, warm and breezy conditions will prevail. Upper level ridge is anchored in the Plains to our east, while the persistent West Coast trough will remain to our west. We are caught in between with mostly west to southwest flow aloft, and very little low level moisture available to fire afternoon thunderstorms. Any low level moisture that does exists will remain east of I-25 across the eastern Plains, where thunderstorms will be more likely to form. For the foothills, only slight chances for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will exist this week.

A weak upper air disturbance will pass to our north today which will increase thunderstorm chances some, but mostly across the Plains and north of I-70. Flow aloft becomes more westerly Tuesday and Wednesday before turning more southwesterly later this week. Next upper disturbance looks to move across CO late this weekend, which may increase thunderstorm chances some and bring cooler temps to start next week. Otherwise a pretty benign weather pattern will persists across CO.

The outlook for significant moisture in June is looking pretty bleak. Until the North American Monsoon makes it's arrival, which is normally in early July, there does not appear to be a good source of moisture for us, so any precip that does fall will be isolated and likely not very heavy. So far in June, I have not recorded any measurable precipitation on Conifer Mountain, so our fire danger will continue at high levels until we receive some significant precipitation.