Upper level ridge currently centered over TN is keeping moist monsoon flow across Gulf of Mexico into northern Mexico and AZ and into CO. Widepsread storms will persist today and Tuesday across most of CO. As upper level flow is weak, storms will be slow moving and will cause localized flooding in heavy downpours.
Natures irrigation system will be tapering off later this week as upper ridge retrogrades westward to the southern Plains, and moisture surges from Mexico diminish. This will lead to slightly warmer temps from Wednesday through the weekend, and more isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Still could be some heavy showers, but not nearly as widespread compared to the past week. Should also be fewer clouds and lower dew points.
Long range progs continue to retrograde the upper ridge westward over the weekend and move it into UT by early next week. If this pattern verifies, we will see much warmer temps next week and much less precipitation. The upper flow is forecast to become north to northwesterly with the upper ridge to our west, which would shut off nearly all monsoon moisture and keep if farther west. We would see only isolated afternoon and evening storms from intense heating develop over mostly higher terrain. Hopefully our recent moisture will be enough to keep fire danger down, as the pattern next week will bring higher fire danger under warmer and much less humid conditions.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
