wxgeek's weather-more snow this week

Update Tue Nov 1

Happy Election Day to all, and the calm before the storm. Latest models have intensified the system a bit, so snow totals will be raised from my last post. Strong northerly winds will accompany this system and cause blowing and drifting snow issues as well as restricted visibilities. here is the latest forecast:

Initial cold front dropped south this morning causing some low clouds along the Urban Corridor and foothills. The main front and upper trough will come through tonight. Precip should start in the foothills and Plains between 6 pm and 10 pm. Snow level will begin around 8000 ft this evening but lower quickly behind front down to Plains level by 9 pm. Heaviest snow will occur between midnight and 8 am Wednesday, with snow ending just after noon on Wednesday. Strong northerly winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph will accompany ths system tonight, so travel will become very difficult at times. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour possible between midnight and 6 am, so plows will have a rough time keeping up with snow overnight. Morning commute will be ugly, so a great day to work from home if possible. School snow days are likely. Snow totals now look like this:

Favored foothill areas above 8000 ft: 6-12 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 5-10 inches
Banana Belt Areas: 4-8 inches
Urban Corridor and Plains: 3-7 inches
Central and Northern Mountains: 6-12 inches

Skies should clear Wednesday afternoon, so evening commute will be better. Thursday and Friday still look dry and warmer. Next system still tracking farther north for Friday night into Saturday, so we should just see some stong winds Friday night into Saturcday morning, and only a dusting to an inch or two of snow at this point. The upper level pattern has a long wave trough over the Inter-Mountain region, so we will continue to see systems transiting the region every 2-4 days. Long range models ahve anoteher system early next week and anotehr later next week, so be prepared for more snow in our future.

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Update Monday Oct 31

I'm not as impressed as the NWS with our upcoming system, but we will definitely see snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Winter Storm Watch seems overdone as do NWS snow amounts, but then I could be wrong. Latest model guidance in good agreement with bringing an upper level trough and associated cold front into CO Tuesday afternoon. This system will remain an open trough and will move through quickly, so my snow amounts are lighter than NWS due to limited upslope and duration. Model liquid equivalent only produces between 0.5 and 0.75 inches, with highest amounts north of I-70. Latest forecast looking like this:

Another mild day on tap for Tuesday with clouds increasing by afternoon. Snow will move into the northern and central mountains Tuesday afetrnoon, and spread into the foothills Tuesday evening and Plains Tuesday night. Gusty southwest winds ahead of this system Tuesday, then turning northerly behind cold front. For the foothills, snow should begin between 6 pm and midnight Tuesday, becoming heavy at times Tuesday night, tapering off by Wednesday morning and ending around Noon on Wednesday. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will accompany snow so could cause some blowing and drifting issues. Areas north of I-70 will receive highest snow amounts. Winds in the high country will be in the 30-60 mph range so travel Tuesday night could become very difficult and psosible road delays and closures. Snow amounts look like this:

Northern and Central Mountains: 6-12 inches
Favored Foothill Areas south of I-70: 4-8 inches
Foothill Areas north of I-70: 5-10 inches
Banana Belt Areas: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor & Eastern Plains: 3-6 inches

Wednesday morning commute could be tough, as initial snow may melt on roads and become ice underneath additional snowpack. Evening commute should be better.

Models continue to suggest another storm on track for Friday night into Saturday. Some timing differences between models, but the track is farther north, so only limited snow south of I-70 at this time. If the track moves farther south, then we could see more significant snow from this next system. As this system will be quite powerful, we could still see very strong winds. If the surface low sets up to our south, then we could see a major winter storm, current forecast keeps the surface low to our north, which would be mostly a high wind event. I will continue to monitor this system.

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Ah, nice to be back in CO, but spending a week with family and friends drinking copius amounts of fine wine, eating farm fresh food, cycling, watching amazing sunsets and golfing in 75 degree sunny weather on the central CA coast wasn't too bad either, and knowing it doesn't mean much without someone very special to enjoy it with is priceless.

ok, on to the weather. A vigorous but fast moving upper trough will move down from the Gulf of Alaska and bring more snow to CO on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The system will affect areas north of I-70 the most, so snowfall in the northern mountains will likely trigger Winter Advisories, and bring cold temps and some snow to the foothills and Metro area. Currently looks like 2-5 inches for favored foothill areas, 1-3 inches in the Banana Belt, and 1-2 inches for the Metro area. Snow should begin around midnight Tuesday night and persist into Wednesday morning, tapering off by Wednesday afternoon. The Wednesday morning commute could be slick and slow. Foothill areas north of I-70 could see even more snow. Northeast Plains willt also see an inch or two. Very cold temps will follow this system Wednesday night, but skies will clear Thursday and temps will rebound.

Longer range models indicate another system may affect CO Friday night into Saturday. Models indicate this system could be quite strong, but they keep the majority of energy to our north into WY. This system bears watching, if the system tracks farther south, this could be a major snow maker for CO. I will keep an eye on this and post updates during the week.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Update Oct 31

Nov 1 update!