Next Storm for CO - Update Fri Nov 4

Update Friday Nov 4

Latest forecast looks pretty similar to last forecast. Upper level trough currently digging into CA will move into the Great Basin tonight and move across CO on Saturday. This system will bring heavy snow to the Sierras and Wasatch mountains today and tonight, and good snow to the CO mountains west of the Divide on Saturday. Surface low will move into northeast CO by Saturday afternoon, which will limit snow in the foothills and Plains. Snow will move into western CO tonight, and move into the central and northern mountains during the day on Saturday. Currently Winter Weather Advisories out west of the Divde for 4-12 inches of snow. I doubt any accumulation will make it east of a line from Longs Peak to Kenosha Pass, but we may see some flurries Saturday afternoon above 7000-8000 ft as the cold front passes. Southwest flow aloft will increase tonight and early Saturday ahead of the front, with winds in the 20-45 mph range possible. When the cold front passes, temps will cool and winds will remain gusty from the west to northwest.

Sunday should be mostly sunny and cool. The next Pacific system will dig towards CO on Monday. Models are not in very good agreement on the track and intensity of this system yet. General idea is for an upper trough to move across AZ and NM on Monday into Tuesday. GFS is faster and drier, wheras the WRF/NAM is deeper and brings snow into all of eastern CO. The GFS keeps all snow south of US 50. So bottom line is for an increase in clouds Monday afternoon, leading to a chance for snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. At this time any snow amounts look to be on the light side, but later model runs could change the forecast.

In the longer range, models keep a long wave upper trough oevr the wetsn US which will keep the storm track in our vicinity, so additional chances for more snow by next weekend and beyond.
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What a wonderful snowy day to be able to work from home. Latest snow reports show generally 6-14 inches along the foothills and Palmer Divide, with 5-10 inches along the Urban Corridor, so a good snow event. I measured 13 inches on Conifer Mtn, with some bigger drifts. Snow is winding down and should end later this afternoon. A cold night tonight.

Thursday a short wave ridge moves across CO so lost of sun and warmer temps. A vigerous upper level trough will dig along the Pacific Coast Thursday and move into the Great Basin on Friday. Southwest flow aloft will incraese ahead of this system which will bring gusty southwest winds to the mountains and foothills on Friday, with speeds in the 20-45 mph range. This could cause some blowing snow from the recent snowfall. This upper trough and accosiated cold front will move into western CO Friday night and bring rain and snow to areas west of Vail Pass Friday night with the snow level between 7000-8000 ft. System will push east during the day on Saturday bringing heavy snow to the High Country west of the Continental Divide. I expect winter advisories will be needed for this syetm in the high country. Surface low moves into northeast CO by Saturday afternoon, and winds aloft remain westerly, so I don't expect much, if any, snow for our foothills on Saturday. This will mostly be a high wind event for the foothills. Areas farther west may see some blow off snow, and we may see some flurries as the cold front passes early Saturday afternoon, but I would not expect more than an inch or two at most of accumulation with the snow level between 7500-8500 ft. Many areas may not see any snow. This system will move east by Saturday night. Sunday will be mostly clear but cool with a few flurries in the high country.

A weak system is then forcast to move across northern NM on Monday into Tuesday morning. Models bring some light snow into the mountains west of he Divide on Monday afternoon, and some snow south of US 50 Monday night. Southern foothill areas could see some light snow, but doubt any accumulation at this time, but if the track moves farther north, we could then see better chances for light snow Monday night. Long range models then keep the remainder of next week dry with seasonal temps.

bump Fri Nov 4