wxgeek's weather-Update Sunday Dec 4

Update Sun Dec 4

Third round of snow on tap for this afternoon into Monday. Nearly identical looking system to the one Saturday, so would expect similar snow amounts of 3-6 inches on the Plains, and 5-10 inches in the foothills and Palmer Divide, with up to a foot in favored areas. NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory in place. Snow should begin around 3 pm this afternoon, become heavy at times this evening and tonight, and ease up Monday monring. Light snow or flurries may continue into late Monday afternoon. The end result will be a slow and slick Monday morning commute, and roads could still have some snow and ice for the Monday evening commute. This system will also contain very cold air from Canada, so temps Monday night expected to be at or below zero.

We should see a gradual warm up from Tuesday into Wednesday. Long range models uncertain about an Alberta Clipper system next week. Currently looks like a cold front will graze northeast CO on Thursday, so slightly cooler with only a slight chance for snow across the northeast Plains, then warmer and dry into the weekend.

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Update Sat Dec 3

More snow this morning than predicted, generally 3-6 inches on the Plains, and 5-10 inches in the foothills. Light snow should continue into this afternoon, and end between 3-6 pm. Next round on track to bring more snow and cold temps to CO Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Snow should begin Sunday afternoon and persist into Monday morning. Amounts look slightly less than today, so 2-4 inches on the Plains, and 3-6 inches in the foothills. Temps to drop to near or below zero by Monday morning, so another snow packed and slick commute Monday monring. SNow should end by noon on Monday, so evening commute to be better.

Next week, models keep things dry with seasonal temps Tuesday through Thursday. Chance for another cold front to bring cooler temps and light snow to northeast CO Thursday night/Friday.

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Last system produced generally 3-6 inches on the Plains, and 5-12 inches in the foothills, with some reports in Larimer county of 15-17 inches. This system was also very unique in that it produced strong downslope winds on the WEST side of the Divide, which is very unusual. Steamboat had winds gusts to 112 mph, and Santa Ana winds in SoCal up to 100 mph.

Now time to get ready for round 2. A large upper ridge has formed in the Gulf of Alaska, which is sending storms very far north into the Yukon and Northwest Territories of Canada and then plunging south into the Inter-Mountain west. The residual upper low over AZ will begin to eject east across NM tonight while another upper trough drops into UT. The combination will be another cold front moving south over CO tonight with some good upslope flow developing.

Snow should begin around midnight tonight and presist into late Saturday afternoon. Amounts of 1-2 inches on the Plains and Urban Corridor, with 2-5 inches in the foothills. Some very heavy snow may form over extreme eastern CO and western KS Saturday associated with the AZ upper low ejecting. Snow should end in CO by Saturday evening.

We clear out Saturday night into Sunday morning, then yet another upper trough from the north moves south across CO Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow with this system should begin Sunday late afternoon/evening and persist into Monday morning. I expecte another 1-2 inches on the Plains and Urban Corridor with 2-5 inches in the foothills. This may cause the Monday morning commute to be another slow and slick commute. Snow should end by late morning on Monday, so the Monday evening commute should be fine.

Models then predict dry and warmer conditions for the remainder of next week for all of CO, and maybe beyond.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

bump for Sat Dec 3 update

Bump for Sun Dec 4 update