What a glorious weekend, it's so nice to have sunny weather this time of year without the winds howling.
A lot of uncertainty in the forecast for this week. Models not in good agreement and even run to run consistency is pretty bad, so confidence is quite low in the forecast for this week.
An upper level low is digging down the CA coast and will settle off the SoCal coast Monday. The system will begin to eject as an open upper trough Tuesday and move across NM and CO Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time, models bring some snow to the southwest corner of CO Monday night into Tuesday, with some snow across southern CO (south of US 50) Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Some snow also possible across the central mountains west of the Divide Tuesday into Wednesday. The only area that may get more than a few inches are the southwest mountains, where 4-8 inches may be possible. Flow aloft remains southwesterly, so I do not expect anything beyond a few flurries for our foothills. The NAM/WRF model outputs some measurable precip for our area, but I prefer the GFS model which keeps us mostly dry. Certainly some clouds and cooler temps from Tuesday into Wednesday.
The next system that may affect CO will come from the Pacific Northwest and dig across the southern Rockies according to the GFS model. The Euro model digs this system and cuts off the low over Baja, which would have no impact to CO. I currently favor the GFS solution, but even this model vascilates from digging a low to our west to moving an open trough across the state. My current thinkg is we will see a chance for some light snow entering western CO Thursday night, and a chance for light snow in the foothills on Friday. This system could go many different ways, so we could see anything from sun to moderate snow by late this week. Hopefully the models will figure things out as the system gets closer.
Long range models indicate the upcoming weekend and early next week will be dry and mild, but condiering the current difficulties, very low confidence in that as well.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
