Holiday Forecast - Update Wednesday December 21st

Update Wed Dec 21

Happy Winter Solstice to all, occurs at 10:30 pm MST tonight, and winter will start with a big bang. NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Urban Corridor and foothills from 5 pm this evening til 11 am Thursday. Latest models have strengthened this system even more, so looks like snow totals will be increased from my last post. Snow will begin between 4-7 pm this evening, become heavy at times overnight into Thursday morning, and then continue as light snow through Thursday afternoon/evening. Some strong northeast winds will accompany the system of 15-30 mph, so near whiteout conditions at times. Travel will become difficult to impossible later tonight into Thursday morning, with road restrictions, delays and closures all likely.

New snow totals:

Foothills and Palmer Divide: 8-16 inches
Banana Belt Areas: 4-8 inches
Urban Corridor: 5-10 inches
Eastrern Plains: 3-6 inches
Mountains: 7-14 inches

Everyone stay safe and warm through this storm. Power outages are possible, but with the light snow not that likely. If you must travel tonight and Thursday, make sure you have a survival kit in your car, enough water and food, and a full gas tank before heading out.

Very cold temps as well with this system, so single digits Thursday with -5 to -15 F Friday morning. Friday through sunday looks dry with warming temps. Next week still looks mostly dry and mild for the foothills and Plains, some mountain snows mid to late next week in brisk westerly flow aloft.

For Holiday travelers, obviously a tough travel day on Thursday within or out of Colorado. Likely lots of flight cancellations and delays tonight into Thursday at DIA. Rainy on the East Coast today may cause some delays. Another heavy dose of rain Thursday over the southern Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley that will spread along the mid Atlantic and northeast seaboard Thursday night, so more flight delays possible in these areas Thursday. Our storm will move into NM on Friday, so tough road travel south on Friday. Otherwise, weather looks pretty tranquil for most of the country Friday through Sunday, so no major travel issues expected for this time period.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
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Update Tue Dec 20

Southeast CO now digging out from major winter storm on Monday. We have a nice sunny break today before the next system takes aim at CO. Models now in good agreement on track and intensity of our next system, so high confidence in the forecast.

Upper level trough will approach CO from the northwest on Wed, and become a closed circulation upper low over the 4 corners region on Thursday before moving southeast across NM and into the TX panhandle on Friday. An associated cold front will push down from the north on Wednesday afternoon, which will help to develop some good upslope flow. Clouds will increase during the day on Wednesday, with snow beginning by late afternoon or early evening. Snow will become heavy at times Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Light snow to continue into Thursday afternoon, then stopping by Thursday evening. This system will bring snow to almost the entire state. Heaviest amounts will fall across the northern and central mountains, as well as the foothills and Palmer Divide. This system looks very similar to the systems that affected us in early December.

Snow totals currently look like this:

Foothills and Palmer Divide: 5-10 inches
Banana Belt areas: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor: 3-6 inches
Eastern Plains: 2-4 inches
Northern and Central Mountains: 6-12 inches

Decent northeast winds will accompany the system which will cause some blowing and drifting and reduce visibilities. Driving could become difficult Wednesday night into Thursday morning, so definitely a tough commute day on Thursday. Snow should hold off until 4-6 pm on Wednesday, so the Wednesday evening commute should be ok early, but getting slick by 7 pm or later.

Models now suggest the Holiday weekend will be dry and mild, with only a slight chance for a few flurries in the mountains Saturday. Next week is also looking mostly dry and mild at this time as a more zonal (westerly) flow develops across the western US with the storm track remaining north of CO. The CO mountains could see some orographic snows next week with all precip remaining west of the Divide.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Mon Dec 19

Major winter storm in proggress over northern NM, southern and southeast CO. Upper low currently over central NM will move slowly into the TX panhandle later today. This system will cause blizzard conditions across southeast Co and into the TX panhandle tonight. For the foothills, light snow has begun and should pick up in intensity later this afternoon and evening, with light snow or flurries possible overnight. Still looks like 2-4 inches in favored foothill locations, and 1-2 inches for the Urban Corridor and Banana Belt of the foothills. Heavier amounts the farther south you go.

The next system this week is looking like it could be a more significant snow event for CO. Upper trough will move down from the Pacific Northwest into southern UT and southwest CO late Wednesday into Thursday. This system should bring up to a foot of snow to the CO mountains and foothills, with maybe 3-6 inches for the Urban Corridor. Snow looks to begin Wednesday night and continue through the day on Thursday, ending Thursday night. Could be a slow commute day on Thursday, although much lighter than usual traffic this week with the Holidays will make things a little easier with fewer vehicles on the roads.

Then a slight chance for a very brief and light snow on Saturday afternoon/night, with most of this precip staying in the mountains.

This week will certainly feel much more like winter and provide enough snow that most in CO will have white stuff on the ground for their holiday festivities.For holiday travelers, besides the system bringing snow to CO later this week, not much in the way of weather to impeed your travel. Some snow will affect the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley Saturday, with some rain along the Atlantic coast. No major winter systems are expected to create travel havoc this weekend or next week at this time.

Long range models indicating a mosly dry and mild week next week.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Update Sun Dec 18

Upper low that has been vactioning over northern Baja over the weekend has stared to moves east across southern AZ. As this system moves east across NM and into the TX panhandle Monday, a weak northern upper trough will combine to create upslope flow and snow for most of eastern CO on Monday. Heaviest snow will be in the southeast corner associated with the southern upper low, but the foothills should see 2-4 inches of snow during the day on Monday, with the Urban Corridor seeing 1-2 inches. Snow should begin by late Monday morning, and continue into Monday night, with some light snow and flurries possible into Tuesday morning south of I-70. Monday afternoon/evening commute could be slow and slick back up the hill. Significant winter storm for southeast CO with 8-12 inches possible. Heavy snow will also be in NM and the TX panhandle on Monday, with heavy rain and severe storms possible across northern TX, OK, southern KS and into southern MO and AR Monday night.

Focus then turns to what appears to be a more significant storm for Thursday. Models now in decent agreement an upper trough will move from the Pacific Northwest into UT late Wednesday into Thursday. This should create good snow for most of CO starting late Wednesday night into Thursday. Amounts at this time look to be in the 3-6 inch range but could increase above that if storm continues to intensify. This system should also bring some much needed snow to the mountains.

Models then suggest a weak upper trough could bring a light rounbd of additkional snow Saturday night into xmas morning, but this systen could easily wash out, so not quite so certain about this snow.
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Fri Dec 16

It should be a spectular weekend if you like sunny and mild days with little wind. Cut off upper low currently over northern Baja seems content to spin around there for a few more days. Models indicate the low will kick out to the east beginning on Sunday, and slowly traverse across southern AZ and NM, then into the TX panhandle by Monday. There is a weak upper trough that will swing down from the northwest on Monday, which now looks like it will phase enough with the southern upper low to create some upslope flow and enough lift to generate some light snow across eastern CO from the Divide east. Heaviest snow will be across southeastern CO, but currently would expect from a dusting to an inch or two during the day on Monday for the foothills. Greatest accumulation will be along the foothills and Palmer Divide, but the Urban Coirridor and Plains could see some light accumulation as well. As this system exists to our east, looks like good potential for severe weather in northern TX, OK, southern MO and AR Monday into Tuesday.

Tuesday and Wednesday look mostly sunny and mild. After that things get very fuzzy. Long range models have struggled on a consistenbt solution for later next week and are still in stark disagreement. GFS model brings a fast moving upper trough from the northwest across CO on Late Wednesday into Thursday which would give us a chance for a brief shot of snow, mostly on Thursday. Euro model digs a much deeper upper trough more slowly into UT next Thursday/Friday. The Euro solution would give us a much better chance for more significant snow late next week. Will have to wait and see who wins the Weather Ryder cup. Either way, looks much cooler late next week with a chance for snow to freshen things up before xmas.

Bump for Dec 20 update

Bump for Dec 21 Update