wxgeek's weather-Weekend snow-Updated Jan 7

Sat Jan 7

Models are now in much better agreement, and the NAM/WRF has trended towards the GFS solution, so lower snow amounts for our foothills. System is currently over UT and will move across CO later today into Sunday.

Snow is already developing across western CO west of the Divide, where snow will increase this afternoon into tonight. Snow will develop across the foothills between 3 pm and 6 pm today, and spread into the Urban Corridor this evening. Snow to become moderate at times tonight, then lighten up Sunday morning, ending around noon on Sunday. Amounts now look like this:

Mountains: 5-10 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 3-6 inches
Banana Belt Areas: 1-2 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-3 inches
Eastern Plains: Dusting to 2 inches

Models in good agreement that we will see cold temps and light snow next Tuesday night into Wednesday as well. Looks like 1-3 inches for the foothills, 1-2 inches for the Urban Corridor.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Friday Jan 6

After a week of unseasonably warm weather, it's back to winter this weekend.

Latest models have some differences in the track of our upcoming system, the GFS and Euro are a little farther south and west, while the NAM/WRF are more north and east which would be a snowier solution. I'm not concinced at this time which model has the better solution, so snow amounts are a blend between the two. If the WRF/NAM verifies, amounts will at the higher end or above, while if the GFS verifies, amounts will be towards the lower side or below. The bottom line is we will have much colder temps this weekend and we will get snow, so enjoy the wintry weekend.

Upper level trough will move from the Pacific Northwest into the Great basin later today, and then move into UT and NM over the weekend. NAM/WRF create a closed circulation over the 4 corners wile the GFS drives the upper trough farther south and west. A cold front will also accompany the system and move down from the north across CO Saturday afternoon. This combination will create decent upclope flow along the Front Range Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Snow should move into western CO west of the Divide Saturday morning into early afternoon. Snow should move into the foothills and Urban Corridor Saturday afternoon into evening. Snow could become moderate to heavy at time Saturday night into early Sunday morning, and then taper off from north to south Sunday afternoon. NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains west of the Divide from Noon Saturday through Noon Sunday for 5-10 inches of snow. NWS currently favors the GFS solution so has not hoisted any winter advisories for the foothills or Plains. They may change their minds later this afternoon.

So my snow amounts look like this:

Central and Northern Mountains: 5-10 inches
Southwest Mountains: 4-9 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 4-8 inches
Banana Belt areas: 2-5 inches
Urban Corridor: 1-3 inches east of I-25, 2-5 inches west of I-25
Eastern Plains: 1-2 inches

For the Bronco playoff game, snow should end around noon to 2 pm, so likely just some clouds mixed with some sun for the game. Temps will be in the low 30's at the start of the game, and upper 20's by the end.

For next week, mostly sunny with seasonal temps Monday and Tuesday, then cooler temps and a chance for snow Tuesday night into Wednesday as another upper trough moves across the state. a cold front will create some shallow upslope Tuesday night into Wednesday, but snow amount look to be on the lighter side, maybe 1-3 inches across the foothills and Metro area. The remainder of next week looks dry and warmer temps into next weekend.

A final update on our snowpack this year. I have measured 80 inches of snow so far this season on Conifer Mountain. Last year at this time, I had measured 19 inches, so we are way ahead of last year, and we are above the average of 57 inches for this point in the season. The mountains unfortunately are well below average, with most areas reporting 60-80% of average snowfall. This is still better than the Sierras where they are reporting 10-20% of average snowfall so far. Hopefully the remainder of winter and spring bring more mountain snow so we have enough runoff for all water concerns this summer.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Sat Jan 7 update