wxgeek's weather-Mtn Snow, Windy Foothills-Update Jan 19

Thu Jan 19

Winds should be dying down through the day today along the foothills, but will remain pretty strong above 9000 ft in the High Country. Mountains west of the Divide should see an increase in snow this afternoon and tonight, so probably another 2-5 inches for the central and northern mountains. Snow will die down during the day on Friday and remain dry Friday night. Mild temps across the foothills and Plains Friday with only breezy winds.

A much stronger Pacific storm will move into western CO on Saturday. Snow will begin in the morning, and increase and move east through the day. Snow level initially 6000-8000 ft west of the Divide, will lower to the surface by Saturday evening. Heavy snow and strong westerly winds will combine to create near blizzard conditions across the High country on Saturday, with an additional 8-18 inches possible across all mountains west of the Divide, including the southwest mounatins with this system. Very difficult travel across CO Saturday, Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Expect road delays and closures with this system. Snow will move east to about a line from Longs Peak to Kenosha Pass by late Saturday afternoon, with some snow making it east into the foothills Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. I would not expect much mroe than a dusting to 1-2 inches for the foothills. Strong westerly winds will begin ahead of this system across the foothills during the day on Saturday, with winds of 30-55 mph possible and mild temps. Cold front will move from west to east across the state and through the foothills Saturday evening. Strong westerly winds will persist Saturday night into Sunday with much cooler temps on Sunday, so a rather blustry day on tap for Sunday. Snow showers will persist across the mountains west of the Divide on Sunday over the northern and central mountains primarily.

Next Pacific system on tap to move into western CO Monday afternoon. This system will bring more snow to the all CO mountans west of the Divide Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Foothills could see some light snow from this system Monday night into Tuesday morning as well. The remainder of next week looks mostly dry across CO with mild temps.

Long range models are beginning to suggest that the current zonal pattern may come to end in early February, with an upper ridge moving back into the eastern Pacific, so that the jetstream would ride over the ridge and then dive southeast into the Inter-Mountain west. This pattern would be more conducive to bringing heavier snow to the foothills and Plains with much colder temps. Will have to wait and see if this comes to fruition.

For NFL football fans, teh forecats for the 2 games this Sunday are as follows:

Foxboro, MA - Snow on Saturday, but should end Saturday night, so partly cloudy duing the game on sunday, with temps in the low to mid 30's, and light east to northeast winds of 5-10 mph.

San Francisco, CA - Mostly sunny early Sunday, but clouds increase in the afternoon leading to a chance of rain by late afternoon, so second half of the game coudl see some rain. Winds calm early in the day, but southerly winds increasing during the game, so winds of 10-20 mph possible during the second half.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Wed Jan 18

Cool and windy day across the foothills today. High Wind Warning is in effect rthough Noon on Thursday. Wind reports show winds in the 60-80 mph have been recorded in Boulder county and 40-60 mph in JeffCo. Winds likely to increase later today into this evening as 150 mph jetstream passes just to our north during the day. Winds will remain strong overnight and relax some on Thursday, but reman breezy. Good batch of moisture will move into western CO today so snow will increase during the day and into tonight across the central and northern mountains west of the Divide. This combined with 30-60 mph winds will create blizzard conditions and make travel difficult, it not impossible at times.

Temps will begin to warm Thursday in the foothills and Plains with temps above seasonal norms, and breezy westerly winds will continue. Snow level in the mountains to range from 6000 ft north to 7500-8000 ft south. Snow will continue west of the Divide on Thursday and Friday. Some snow may make it to teh foothills on Friday afternoon/evening, although any accumulation would be very light.

Looks like a brief break Friday night across CO before the next system arrives on Saturday. Snow will once again move into the mountains west of the Divide and become heavy at times. I suspect Winter Storm Warnings will be needed for this system as it looks like 6-14 inches will be possible over the mountains. A cold front will move across CO late in the day Saturday, so cooler temps on Sunday and snow levels back down to the surface. Snow will continue Saturday night through Sunday in the mountains west of the Divide, so another 4-8 inches in the mountains on Sunday. We could see another High Wind event in the foothills Sunday night into Monday morning. Latest models keep the foothills dry through at least the middle of next week now, so does not look like any significant snow for the foothills or Plains through next week at this time. Models continue the pattern of snow in the mountains next week west of the Divide, and breezy and mild east of the Divide. Ski areas should have all areas open by this weekend with lots of new powder to delight skiers and boarders.

Seattle area has received 4-10 inches of snow today, so lots of challenges up there. Talked with several colleagues today that live up there and many decided not to veture out today, as most schools were closed and many businesses allowed employees to stay at home. Record snow totals in many areas, with some areas receiving 10-18 inches over the past 3 days. More rain expected this week, so a big slushy mess up there for a while.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Tue Jan 17

High Wind Warning in effect for much of the foothills and central and northern mountains from midnight tonight through Noon Thursday. West to northwest winds will be in the 30-55 mph range, with gusts to 90-100 mph in favored exposed areas as very strong cross mountain flow will combine with a favored atmospheric profile to create an amplified mountain wave. Strongest winds will likely be noth of I-70, but very strong winds will exist south to US 50. Expect possible power outages and blowing and drifting of snow across roads. Travel will be difficult at times, especially aong north-south oriented highways such as US 285 and CO 93 as well as C470 along the foothills. Winds look to be strongest early Wednesday morning between 2 am and 8 am.

Zonal flow will begin to bring orographic snow to the mountains west of the Divide on Wednesday and will persist through the weekend. Snow levels to range from 6000 ft north to 8000 ft south. There will be heavier surges of moisture at times that will bring snow east to the crest of the Front Range, or a line from Longs Peak to Kenosha Pass, but limited accumulation east of the Divide. It will remain breezy to windy along the foothills through the weekend with temps above seasonal norms.

A stronger system is forecast to move into western CO Friday night into Saturday, and looks to bring more significant accumulations to the mountains west of the Divide. This system may provide a dusting to the foothills late Saturday into Sunday morning. Models then forecast an even stronger system with a more southern track will move across CO late Sunday into Monday. This system would favor the southwest mountains and could bring the next significant snowfall to the foothills and Plains on Monday of next week. Will need to keey a watch on this as it could produce several inches of snow and affect the Monday commute. Otherwise, models continue the strong zonal flow across the western US next week, so more mountain snow and windy foothills into next week.

Update on the Pacific Northwest situation. 1-3 inches of snow are falling today from Seattle south to Portland, and 5-10 inches are expected in the Puget Sound region overnight into Wednesday afternoon before the snow is expected to turn to rain. Farther south it will likely be a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow down to Portland. Much of this region will be shut down on Wednesday with air and ground travel impossible.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Jan 18 update

Bump for Jan 19 update