wxgeek's weather-Snow Thurs/friday-Update Jan 31

Tue Jan 31

Models continue the trend of bringing an upper low into the 4 corners region Thursday and into the TX panhandle by Friday. Of course, models have their usual differences which makes a certain forecats at this time difficult, but the trend is well established. Concensus is that eastern CO will have a good snowstorm from Thursday evening through Friday night. The details are what is difficult at this point. GFS model brings heaviest snow intyo northeast CO, while the WRF models brings heaviest snow into southeast CO. What is likely is the following:

Snow will move into western CO Thursday morning, and spread east into the foothills and Plains by Thursday evening/night. Snow will continue east of the Divide on Friday into late Friday night, and into early Saturday morning across the far eastern Plains. Strong northeast winds will create blizzard conditions across the Plains at times on Friday making travel difficult to impossible. Snow totals could range from 3-6 inches on the GFS model to 6-12 inches on the WRF model for the foothills and Urban Corridor. Far eastern Plains could receive even higher totals with higher drifts. This system is currently still in the eastern Pacific, so models could change the timing and track even more in the next 24 hours as system comes onshore in the Pacific Northwest. General trend has been to slow system down and intensify it further, so this system has the potential to be an even bigger storm. The eventual track wilol determine where the heaviest snow amounts will be. Bottom line is people should prepare for a good snow late Thursday into Friday night, and posisbly into early Saturday morning. Travel could become difficult, especially Thursday night into Friday morning, so commute on Friday could be challenging.

Models continue to suggest an extended dry and mild period after this system next week and the week beyond.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Pretty benign weather tp start this week, with a weak cold front on Tuesday that will cool temps back to near seasonal norms on Wednesday but remain mostly sunny. Models have begun to advertise a potential snowstorm for later this week. Lots of variations in solutions at this point, but the overall trend is to dig an upper trough from the Pacific Northwest into the 4 Corners region Thursday and have the upper low move slowly across southern CO and into western KS/NE on Friday. This pattern would promote a healthy upslope flow for eastern CO from Thursday evening into Friday night. Snow would begin in western CO late Wednesday night into Thursday, and move east into the foothills and Urban Corridor by Thursday afternoon/evening. Snow could become heavy Thursday night into Friday morning along the foothills and Urban Corridor. Still too early to pin down snow amounts, as the track could change between now and Thursday, but if latest models have a decent handle on this event, this could be a good snowfall. I will keep an eye on the fotrecats and advise amounts later this week.

Beyond this storm, models are advertising an extended dry period next week and beyond as the upper ridge that has moved back into the eastern Pacific will move farther east into the Inter-Mountain west, which would keep CO dry and mild at least through the first half of February.

As a side note, just got back from a trip for my wife's birthday over to Pagosa Springs and Durango. It was interesting to see how much more snow was on the ground from about Poncha Pass south and west. Still lots of snow on the ground and mountains have quite a bit of snow, especially near Wolf Creek pass. Drastic drop off in snow as you head into South park and our foothills. Hopefully March and April live up to their climatological norms for us.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Jan 31 Update