wxgeek's weather-Major winter storm-update Feb 4

Sat Feb 4

Light snow stubbornly hanging on this morning, but snow should end by 10 am to noon nearly all locations, and we may even see the yellow orb today as well. As the major system moves east, an upper trough is forecats to re-develop over UT/CO this weekend and persist over the area through Monday of next week. This means that light snow and flurries will be possible over mostly the mountains west of the Divide this weekend, with a chance for some light snow across the foothills and Plains on Monday. No significant accumulations expected, maybe a dusting to an inch or two at most.

Impressive storm we just had. Reports show generally 1-2 feet across the Plains and Urban Corridor, and 3-5 feet across the foothills. Largest snowfall was reported outside Pinecliff in Gilpin county with 50.5 inches this morning, and 48 inches outside Black Hawk. I have measured 37 inches on Conifer Mountain, which puts this storm in the top 5 storms since 1993. And those would be:

March 2003 - 79 inches
December 2006 - 42 inches
October 2009 - 42 inches
April 2009 - 39 inches
February 2012 - 37 inches and still counting

Winds still a problem on the eastern Plains, but should die down later this afternoon and allow folks to begin digging out from their 4-7 foot drifts.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Fri Feb 3

Upper level low currently over the south central border between CO and NM. Models forecast the system to slowly move into southeast CO/western KS by Saturday morning. Latest snow reports show generally 4-10 inches along the Urban Corridor and Plains, with 1-2 feet in the foothills. Highest amounts appear to be in the Boulder county foothills, although on Conifer Mtn we received 22 inches overnight, so more than expected.

I believe the heaveist snow rates will end by noon, but light to moderate snow will persist into early Saturday morning. Looks like an additional 4-8 inches possible for the Urban Corridor and northeast Plains, while an additional 6-12 inches possible for the foothills. As the upper low moves farther east, northerly winds will increase east of I-25 today and tonight, so very difficult travel across eastern CO today and tonight, especially north of I-70. All snow should end by Saturday morning with only a few lingering flurries into Saturday afternoon across the foothills and extreme northeast Plains.

Models indicate warmer and drier weather on tap for Sunday through next week, although temps will remain seasonal with this much snow cover. Funky pattern wil lingering piece of trough remaining over CO next week, so there is a chance for snow across the south central part of the state Tuesday/Wednesday next week.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Thu Feb 2

Major Winter storm taking shape over the 4 corners region this morning. Models now in good agreement and have increased intensity of this system as it slowly moves across the CO/NM border and into KS/NE over the weekend. As a result, snow will be heavy and duration will be long all along the foothills and eastern Plains. NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning now for the foothills and Urban Corridor, and a Blizzard Warning for the eastern Plains. Heaviest snow on model output now over the Palmer Divide and southern Foothills into southeast CO. So, new snow totals forecast:

Foothills and Palmer Divide: 12-24 inches
Urban Corridor: 10-18 inches
Eastern Plains: 8-16 inches
Banana Belt Areas: 6-12 inches
Southwest and south ce ntral mountains: 8-16 inches
Northern and north central mountains: 4-10 inches

Snow begins in the foothills this afternoon and becomes heavy tonight and persists through Friday into Friday night. Snow to end late Friday night with some lingering flurries into Saturday morning. Travel to become difficult to impossible many areas east of the Divide by tonight and all day Friday. Expect road restrictions and closures. Likely many school closures on Friday. If you have to travel tonight or Friday, make sure you have a survival kit with you, shovel, and warm clothing as well as ample water and food. Power outages may also become an issue on Friday, so fill a bathtub if you need spare water.

Stay safe and enjoy the storm all.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Wed Feb 1

Model agreement getting better as system has come onshore and into the Great Basin today. Upper level trough will bcome an broad upper level low over CO with primary circulation near the 4 corners region on Thursday and will slide east along the southern CO border to near the CO/OK border on Friday and then move northeast into south central NE on Saturday. Surface low will form over the TX panhandle by Thursday night and move slowly east into southwest KS on Friday. All of this points to a significant winter storm for CO with some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico being advected north into this system.

Models show heaviest snow totals along and east of the I-25 corridor, which is why NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for eastern CO, but has not incliuded the foothills. However, since deep upslope flow will persist into the foothills from this system, I see no reason why the foothills will not receive as much or more snow as the Urban Corridor. Heaviest snow total now appear to be centered over the southeast corner of CO, which is closest to the upper circulation and makes sense.

So, forecast now looks like this. Snow will begin overnight and into Thursday morning across western CO, with heaviest snow over the southwest and south central mountains of CO where a Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Strom Warning is in effect. Snow totals for these areas look like 6-12 inches of snow with up to 18 inches over higher terrain. Snow will spread east during the day on Thursday and into the foothills and eastern Plains by late afternoon to evening. Snow becomes heavy from the foothills to the KS border Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow will gradually move east and north during the day on Friday but will persist north of the Palmer Divide and east of the foothills into Friday night. Some wrap around snow will persists into Saturday morning across far northeast CO. North to northeast winds in the 15-35 mph range will cause blowing and drifting of snow, especially across the eastern Plains where winds will be strongest. Snow totals now look like this...

Southwest and South Central Mountains: 6-18 inches
Northern and North Central Mountains: 4-8 inches
Foothills and Palmer Divide: 6-14 inches
Banana Belt areas: 3-7 inches
Urban Corridor: 6-12 inches
Eastern Plains (east of I-25): 6-12 inches
Southeast Plains: 10-20 inches

Travel across all of eastern CO will become difficult to impossible from Thursday night into Friday afternoon with delays, restrictions and road closures likely. Most snow shoudl end by Friday night, although some lingering mountain and foothill flurries are possible on Saturday.

Sunday should be cool and partly cloudy. The remainder of next week looks dry and mild across all of CO as an upper ridge builds into the western US. This pattern may persist into the the following week as well.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Thurs Feb 2 update

What areas are they referring to as "Banana Belt"?

Generally speaking,the area between PJ (Will O Wisp side)and extending thru/about to Grant.......I've lived in Bailey my entire mountain
life and have always understood Bailey (both sides of 285) to be square in the "BananaBelt"......seems to hold true,Conifer Aspen Park
get NAILED with snow, we get inches instead of feet......(thank you to that FIRST realtor who sold us the home in the "bananabelt".

Bump for Fri Feb 3 update

Bump for Sat Feb 4 update