wxgeek's weather-Outlook Feb 9-16

Thu Feb 9

Snow will develop over the high country today with the vast majotity staying west of the Divide, although some brief showers could pass over the foothills and adjacent Plains, but no accumulation expected. Expect 1-3 inches over the mountains west of the Divide today.

Friday should be the warmest day of the week and mostly dry across CO before a series of fast moving systems from the Pacific Northwest move across CO over the next week.

Snow will develop Friady afternoon into Friday night along the CO/WY border, and slide south into the Plains. A shallow cold front accompanied by stong southeast surface winds will bring low clouds and a chance for light snow or freezing drizzle over much of the eastern Plains Saturday. Since this is a shallow cold airmass, I don't expect this to affect the foothills above about 8000-9000 ft where winds will be westerly. However, we could see some dense fog along the base of the foothills to the top of the cloud deck from Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Any snow across the Plains would be very light with no accumulation expected.

The next system from the Pacific Northwest will begin to affect western CO Saturday night into Sunday. Snow will affect areas west of Vail Pass Saturday night and spread east to about the Front Range crest during the day on Sunday. This system could produce 4-8 inches west of the Divide. Only a slight chance for snow for the foothills and Urban Corridor on Sunday from this system, so only a dusting to an inch expected at this time.

For next week, a series of fairly strong systems will move across CO from the Pacific Northwest. Expect nearly continuous snow next week over the mountains west of the Divide, with heaviest snow on Tuesday and Thursday. For the foothills, best chances for snow will be Tuesday and Thursday as well, with the potential for a significant snowfall on Thursday.

Long range models suggest this pattern will persist into the following week and perhaps through the end of February, so we should see our snowiest February on record across much of CO.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

Tue Feb 7

After our nice fluffy snow overnight, skies should be clearing today. Cold temps tonight, but slightly warmer days on tap for Wednesday and Thursday under mostly sunny skies. The mountains west of the Divide could see some light snow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon, but only a few inches of accumulation expected.

Friday and Saturday should be mostly sunny with seasonal temps across CO. Latest models bring a weak upper trough across CO late Saturday into Sunday, which will bring a chance for snow across most of CO from Saturday afternoon into Sunday night. Heaviest snow with this system appears to be over the southwest and south central mountains, but the foothills and Urban Corridor as well as the eastern Plains could see some snow. Currently looks like 1-3 inches for the foothills, and a dusting to an inch across the Urban Corridor and Plains. Best chances for snow will be south of I-70 this weekend.

Models then bring a series of storms into CO next week as a strong upper ridge builds into the eastern Pacific, and the storm track rides up into the Gulf of Alaska and then southeast into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, with storms moving across CO. Models indicate we could see another significant storm towards the end of next week, but details will become more clear next week. Basically be prepared for more snow from this weekend through next week. If models are correct, we are on track for a record breaking February for snowfall across eastern CO. So far this month we have received 41.5 inches of snow on Conifer Mountain, and the snowiest Feb since 1993 was 50.75 inches in 1997.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Feb 9 update