wxgeek's weather-Warm, Windy & Snow-Update Monday Mar 5

Mon Mar 5

Warm and breezy weather on tap for today through Tuesday. Not a lot of progress in better defining our weather for later this week unfortunately, but not unexpected. As current upper trough in the Gulf of Alaska moves across the West Coast later today, models will hopefully get a better handle on the track of this system.

What we know for sure is that temps will be well above seasonal norms today and Tuesday, and west to southwest winds will increase in strength from this afternoon through Tuesday night. Expect wind speeds in the 25-50 mph range, with very low relative humidity values. In areas where snow is not on the ground, high fire danger will exist.

Now to the forecast problem. It is Spring meteorologically, and tis the season for cutoff upper lows. As the system in the Gulf of Alaska digs into the Great Basin Tuesday, models are having a tough time agreeing on the track of the upper low once it becomes cutoff. The GFS is the most progressive, but even it stalls the upper low near the CO/NM border on Thursday and keeps it in this area through Saturday. The NAM/WRF and Euro models are even slower and keep the upper low in eastern AZ and the 4 Corners region through Friday. All models agree to some degree that a cold front will move south across CO on Wednesday, bringing much cooler temps and a chance for upslope snow along the Urban Corridor and foothills by Wednesday afternoon. The intensity and duration from there are the tough part to forecast, so still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast from Wednesday through Saturday. If the upper low stays far enough west, we would limit the amount of snow we would see. If the low tracks to near or slightly east of the 4 Corners and remains there, we could see steady snow from Wednesday through at least Friday. So we could see anywhere from a few inches to a few feet of snow, depending on the ultimate track of this system. I will definitely continue to monitor this situation and post regular updates. This will be a Spring type storm, so the snow will be of the wet and heavy variety, the kind in abundance that can cause power outages and clog snow blowers.

In general I don't like making weather comparisons, but this is very similar to how the March 2003 storm began and was difficult to predict the intensity of the storm until 24 hours before it began. That upper low stalled over southeast CO for 24-48 hours which caused the enormous snowfall. I'm not saying this storm will come close to that one, just to keep an eye on this system and stay informed.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

---

After winds died down today, sun felt very Spring like. More sun and warm temps on tap for Monday with only light winds. Strong westerly winds look like they will return Monday night into Tuesday, but temps will remain well above seasonal norms and dry conditions will prevail across the state. In areas without snow on the ground, fire danger could be elevated Monday and Tuesday.

Models beginning to coome into better agreemetnt on our next system which is taking shape in the Gulf of Alaska. Upper trough is forecast to move along the west coast Monday and into the Great Baisn on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning system is expected to become a closed low and cut off from the main flow over the AZ/NM border, which makes this system hard to predict. Spring is the time when cutoff upper lows are prevalent, especially over the southwestern US. System then is forecast to move slowly eastward along the CO/NM border Thursday and maybe into southwestern KS by Friday. Since this system will become cutoff, the forecast track has a lot of uncertainty, and these systems can stall over one spot for a while. Hence, the forecast for the middle to end of this week does not have a lot of confidence at this point. It looks fairly certain that a cold front will down across CO on Wednesday, and combine with a moist upslope flow to produce snow across much of CO by Wednesday afternoon. Snow could continue much of Thursday across easstern CO from the Front Range Crest to the KS border. Amounts will depend on the depth of the upslope flow and how fast the upper low actually moves. So if the system moves through quickly, we could see a few inches, if the system moves slowly and stalls, we could see a foot or more. We will have to wait and see how this ssytem evolves once it moves onshore. But be prepared we could see a signifcant snowstorm for eastern CO Wednesday through Friday. In addition, as this system begins to move east, we could see a significant severe weather outbreak across the southern and central Plains, lower and mid Mississippi Valley and western Ohio Valley late this week into this weekend.

For CO, the coming weekend and early next week currently look dry with temps at or above seasonal norms. Chance for another system by the middle of next week.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Monday March 5 update