wxgeek's weather-warm and breezy week-Tues March 13 update

Tue Mar 13

Another splendid day across the state with temps near record marks. Light winds helping to keep fire danger below critical levels, with red flag warnings isolated to far eastern Plains. Warm and dry weather to continue into the weekend according to latest models.

As deep upper trough moves along the west coast this weekend and then into AZ on Moday, strong southwest flow aloft ahead of this system will create very windy conditions across the foothills and Plains Saturday and Sunday, so red flag fire conditions may extend into the Urban Ciorridor and lower foothills. Models are fairly consistent this far out in slowing down the large and deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest early next week before eventually moving it across CO Tuesday into Thursday. Looks like any precip will hold off until Monday at the earliest for western CO. Still too early to make any firm predictions for this system, but it definitely has the potential to be a big storm for much of CO. The question will be how much cold air remains as it moves across CO, so snow levels could range from Plains level to 8000-9000 ft which would make a big difefrence in the impact this system will have. Foothills above 8500 ft likely to see all snow, so then the question of how much remains. Depending on ultimate track and speed, could be anywhere from a few inches to a couple of feet. We'll have to wait and see how things evolve, but this is an early heads up to be prepared for the possibility of a major Spring storm early next week. Snow would also be of the very wet and heavy Spring variety.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Mon Mar 12

Warm and breezy week underway. Temps will approach if not break records for the date this week across the state. Upper ridge builds this week under southwest flow aloft. WIth high temps and low humidity fire danger will rise for areas without snow cover. Winds likely not strong enough to issue red flag warmings, but still high fire danger.

Conditions expected to persist through Friday. By this weekend, a big change is lurking. Deep and powerful upper trough will move into the west coast. As some energy ejects from this upper trough western CO will begin to see clouds and precip by Saturday. Precip should stay west of Vail Pass mostly with snow level 9000-10,000 ft. Precip moves east to the Divide on Sunday with snow level 8000-9000 ft. For the foothills and Plains, southwest winds will increase this weekend to create very windy conditions, but we will remain dry and warm. As the upper trough begins to move east into AZ on Monday, western CO will continue to get precip. The foothills and eastern CO will have precip chances beginning next Tuesday into Thursday. Depending on the eventual track of this system, we could see a significant Spring snowstorm sometime next week, that could last 2-3 days. Of course, still way to far out to predict anything with any confidence, but certainly a system to keep an eye on. Large and slow moving upper lows like this one is the reason March is the snowiest month of the year for Denver and second snowiest for the foothills (behind April). Of course the system could just as easily miss us completely, we will just have to wait and see what evolves.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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After a little surprise this morning, upper low now in western KS and moving northeast. Snow this morning was a result of upper low tracking farther west across southeast CO and creating some upslope in wrap around portion of upper low. Currently a tornado watch for eastern TX and LA as line of severe weather associated with this upper low.

Forecast for the coming week will feature dry conditions across the state, with temps well above seasonal norms and breezy to windy conditions across the foothills at times. Sunday night will be windy, and Tuesday night looks windy as well, otherwise just breezy. Flow aloft will be westerly through Monday then turn southwesterly Tuesday through Friday. Southwest flow will create warm temps and low humidities which will create elevated fire danger in areas abesnt snow. Temps likely to be 10-20 degrees above seasonal norms.

Long range models continue to suggest a deep and powerful upper trough will move from the west coast into the Breat Basin this weekend, and will bring increased chances for precip to western CO this weekend. Currently looks like precip will stay west of the Divide until early next week when upper trough moves into the southern Rockies and may create a good upslope Spring storm for eastern CO. Still too early to pinpoint track and details, but trend has been consistent.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

Bump for Monday March 12 update

Bump for Tues March 13 update