wxgeek's weather-Warm this Week, Big Change Next wk

Thu Mar 15

Not sure if the models will be accurate with our upcoming storm, but they are in remarkebly good agreement at this point. For now through Sunday, expect a continuation of our unseasonable warm weather. Winds will be increasing this weekend ahead of the Pacific system, so expect southwest winds of 15-35 mph Saturday, and 25-50 mph Sunday which will create very high fire danger and we will likely see red flag warnings as humidity levels remain below 10-15%. Even with snow on the ground, fire danger will be high as any fire getting up into trees could still spread rapidly. Areas without snow have even greater danger as ground fuels are now very dry.

Upper level trough is forecast to move down the CA coast this weekend and into UT/AZ on Monday and then into CO/NM on Tuesday, and then become a closed low over west TX on Wednesday, intensify and move north into western OK on Thursday and into northeast KS on Friday. If this track verifies, then snow will move into western CO during the day on Sunday with snow level 7000-8000 ft and majority of snow will remain west of the Divide. Southwest mountains on track to receive the majority of snow on Sunday. Cold front will move from west to east across the state Sunday night bringing cooler temps to the foothills and Plains by Monday morning, lowering fire danger. Snow continues west of the Divide on Monday with snow level down to valley floors. Snow amounts in the mountains look like 8-16 inches for the southwest mountains, with 4-10 inches other areas west of the Divide. Some snow may make it to the Front Range Crest Sunday and Monday, but limited accumulations east of the Divide. Best chances for snow across the foothills and adjacent Plains looks to be Monday night into Tuesday. Currently only looks like light accumulations, so maybe 1-3 inches. Wednesday currently looks cool and dry across the state. As the upper low tracks north Thursday models suggest the chace for snow returning to eastern CO from the foothills east, but amounts would generally be light.

The main concern for this system is the track. If the upper closed low forms farther west and tracks across eastern CO then we could see a much more significant snowstorm. If it tracks even farther east, then our only snow would be Monday night into Tuesday when the upper trough passes. Right now this does not appear to be a major storm for CO, but that could change. The other impact will be an increased chance for severe weather across the southern and central Plains next week as warm Gulf air is advected north and combines with this cold upper low.

Late next week into next weekend currently looks dry and warm across CO.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Wed Mar 14

More warm and brrezay days on tap this week with temps near record levels. This pattern should continue through Friday, and then begin to change this weekend. Flow aloft increases on Saturday from the soutwhest ahead of a large and powerful upper trough that will dig along the west coast. CO will mostly see an increase in souterly winds Saturday and begin to see some high clouds. Clouds and winds increase on Sunday, with some precip moving into the soutwhest portion of the state on Sunday afternoon, Snow level will be between 8000-9000 ft in this area. Southwest winds may be in the 25-50 mph range across the foothills and adjacent Plains on Sunday. Increased fire danger this weekend across the lower foothills and Plains as high winds and low humidity combine. Highest danger on Saturday as temps lower on Sunday and humidity slightly higher.

As upper trough moves into AZ on Monday, snow will increase across western CO mainly west of the Divide. Snow level will be 7000-8000 ft most areas lowering to near 6000 ft by Monday night.

From here the forecast becomes more uncertain. GFS model move a strong closed low across central NM on Monday and into western TX on Tuesday, and then moves the upper low due north trhough the TX panhandle and western KS Wednesday trhough Friday. The European model moves the upper low into the 4 Corners region Monday and then over the NM/CO border on Tuesday and over southeast CO on Wednesday. Models predict this upper low will come to a halt towards the middle of next week as a very strong upper ridge forms over the Mississippi Valley which will block the progress of this system. Depending on where the systen stalls will determine how bad of a storm eastern CO has. If the GFS is correct, the low stalls too far east and keeps most precip farther east and south. If the Euro model is correct, we could see an extended snowstorm across eastern CO and our foothills for much of next week. We will have to wait and see how this system evolves, but it is likely models will continue to throw various solutions around for the next few days before there is better concensus and there is a little more confidence in a forecast. Likely by this weekend we will have a better idea of what will transpire, but as stated earlier, be prepared for a potential long duration and heavy snowstorm next week.

The other possible impact from this system will be an extended round of severe weather across portions of TX, OK, KS, NE and LA next week.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

bump for March 15 update