wxgeek's weather-unsettled weather this week-Update Feb 21

Wed Feb 21

A cool but dry day for most of CO today. Cutoff upper low spinning over western TX today still forecast to move slowly north into western OK Thursday and begin to move eastward into MO/AR on Friday. Upper low is causing fair amount of flooding across portions of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather continues today across portions of LA, MS, AR, MO, OK and KS.

For CO, models now agree that eastern CO will likely see some rain tonight into Thursday afternoon, but vast majority will stay east of I-25, with heaviest rain closer to the KS border. It currently does not look like the foothills will see any precip from this system. Strong north to northeast winds possible mostly east of I-25 this afternoon into Thursday as well. As upper low moves east on Friday, CO should see mostly sunny skies and warmer temps. Upper ridge builds in over the state this weekend which will keep skies mostly sunny with temps well above seasonal norms, could see low to mid 80's along the Urban Corridor and Plains this weekend, with mid to upper 60's and maybe low 70's in the foothills.

Upper trough along the west coast will eject a short wave towards northwest CO late on Monday into Tuesday, which will create windy conditions along the foothills and adjacent Plains Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, and slightly cooler temps on Tuesday. This will likely create some dangerous fire conditions Monday afternoon,especially in areas absent any snow. The remainder of next week looks dry with temps above seasonal norms, but fairly light winds, so fire danger should remain in the mdoerate category. Next chance for precip looks like Sunday afternoon into the following Tuesday.

It appears we will end March with a meager 2.5 icnhes of snow on Conifer Mountain, which will make this the least snowy March on record. Previous record was 10.0 inches in 1999. Our seasonal total still remains above average at 151.5 inches, with normal at the end of March being 121 inches. Normal for the month of March is 32 inches. We all know what a dry Spring inplies, so hopefully we get close to normal snowfall in April, which is our snowiest month with 40 inches on average. Unfortunately the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast is for above normal temps and below normal precipitation for April and May. If this prediction is correct, it could be a very bad early fire season, at least until the "green up" occurs which is usually May-June.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".

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Tues march 20 update

Happy Vernal Equinox to all. First full day of Spring will offer mostly sunny skies but cool temps across the state, with some lingering snow showers across the southeast portion of the state. Cutoff upper low currently spinning over west TX, and is expected to wobble slowly northward over the next several days. As the upper low tracks into western OK and KS Wednesday and Thursday, eastern CO could see some precip along with strong northerly winds. Models are uncertain how far west this precip is likely to extend. Currently models predict precip will only make it west to about the I-25 corridor, but if there is a northeast flow aloft, I see no reason why precip would not end up along the foothills on Wednesday night into Thursday. If precip makes it to the foothills, snow level would be 7000-8000 ft, and any accumulation would be light, less than an inch or two.

Upper low is also generating severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across portions of eastern TX and OK, western LA and AR today. More severe weather expected across portions of LA, AR, KS, OK and MO Wednesday.

Upper low finally begins to move east on Friday which will bring sunny skies and warmer temps across the state which should extend into the weekend with temps 10-15 degrees above seasoanl norms. Fast moving upper trough expected to move north of CO on Monday, which will increase westerly winds creating increased fire danger Monday. The remainder of next week should be dry and warm. The next chance for precip according to long range models would be next weekend.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

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The large upper trough moveing across the western Us has split into two branches, with a northern piece of energy in WY, and the southern branch now in eastern AZ. The southern branch is forecast to become a cutoff upper low and move into southeast NM Tuesday, western TX on Wednesday, southwest KS on Thursday and finally move east on Friday. With this track, snow will continue across CO west of the Divide today, with a chance for snow across the foothills and Plains this evening into Tuesday morning. Amounts in the foothills will be on the light side, with 1-2 inches on the high side, and nothing to a dusting on the low side. The remainder of Tuesday will be cool with partly cloudy skies, with some snow lingering across southern and southeast CO.

Wednesday should be mostly clear in the morning except for showers across southeast CO. As upper low moves north, eastern CO will see increasing clouds and precip by Wednsday afternoon. Precip will continue to move west Wednesday night into Thursday extending to the foothills. Snow level looks to be 6000 ft near the KS border rising to 8000-9000 ft over the foothills. We could see 1-3 inches of additional accumulation Wednesday night into Thursday night above 8000 ft in the foothills. Should be a rain event over the Urban Corridor and Plains.

Skies should finally clear and temps begin to rebound on Friday. By the weekend, temps should be back to seasonal norms and above under mostly sunny skies across the state.

For severe weather, currently heavy rain and thunderstorms in a line across TX, OK and KS. Some severe storms and tornadoes possible in TX and OK later today and tonight. Severe weather moves into eastern TX and AR on Tuesday, and then into LA, AR and eastern KS on Wednesday.

Long range progs bring a fast moving upper trough across northern CO early next week, then build a an upper ridge back across the state for the remainder of next week, so continued dry and warm for most of next week. No major storms on the horizon through the end of March.
_________________
"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong"

Bump for march 20 update

Bump for Wed March 21 update