A bit of a roller coaster ride coming up in our weather. The good news is that Friday and Saturday should both be good days for fire crews to continue containment work. Winds today will be from the west to northwest at 5-15 mph, then switch to diurnal drainage winds tonight. Temps will remain warm with low RH vcalues. On Saturday, expect mostly southerly winds at 5-15 mph with temps at or above record levels, and low RH values. Temps should be low to mid 80's on the Plains, and upper 60's to mid 70's in the foothills.
Now the brief bad news. Latest model guidance is now suggesting the upper trough from the Pacific will move across CA on Saturday, into the Great Basin on Sunday, and then become a closed upper low over north central NM on Monday. At the surface, a lee side trough will develop late Saturday afternoon over the Plains which will create southwest winds over the foothills. Wind speeds will increase Saturday evening into Sunday morning with speeds in the 15-30 mph range, so hot spots could flare up Saturday night. Wnds Sunday will be from the south to southwest at 15-35 mph, and combine with warm temps and low RH could casue a possible fire weather watch or red flag warning for Sunday. Clouds in advance of the system may keep temps below Saturday levels, but still very warm temps on Sunday creating the potential for problems in the Lower North Fork fire and for any new fire starts. Now for the even better news. Cold front will move into western CO during the day on Sunday bringing precip to areas west of the Divide. Same cold front will move through the foothills Sunday evening with a surface low developing over southeast CO. This will combine to bring cool and moist north to northeast winds over the foothills and Plains Sunday evening after 6 pm. Precip looks to begin over the foothills around midnight on Sunday night with snow level initially 7000-8000 ft. Precip continues overnight ingto Monday morning with snow level lowering to Plains level by Monday morning. Snow should persist into Monday afternoon, then clearing by Monday evening. Currenmtly looks like 3-6 inches of snow possible above 8000 ft, with 2-4 inches possible below that and over the Urban Corridor. Because temps have been so warm, initail snow likely to melt on pavement, but enough accumulation will make roads slick for the Monday morning commute. This looks like enough precip to douse any flames or hot spots in fires.
For the rest of next week, Tuesday through Friday look dry with temps back above seasonal norms. Winds remain mostly light until late next week when an upper trough moves into the northern Rockies which will create windy conditions across CO. Some precip is possible next weekend, but it looks more like monsoonal moisture coming up from Mexico, so any precip woudl be rain below about 12,000 ft.
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"Climatology is what you expect, Weather is what you get".
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong".
Too bad future generations aren't here to see all the great things we are spending their $$ on!!
